I know a number of people have predicted a bear market for 2013. This is certainly possible. We have them and one is going to come. Whether it will be in 2013 or not is another question. Others have predicted a continued market and economic recovery. It is hard to know who is right.
My experience has been that bear markets unless something big happens, will occur after April or in the fall. Still, every time we get a bear market or recession, everyone seems to act surprised. Yet these things happen on a regular basis.
Frequent cyclical bear markets fall 10 to 20%. However, everyone once in a while, the market falls much more. We will have a market drop of 20 to 50% before we move from the current secular Bear to a secular bull market.
There is an interesting article in Forbes about what different people have to say about.2013. Also, the Market Oracle talks about our secular bear market and its possible end possible end. Even though this last article is about the US markets our markets have pretty much tracked the US markets in secular bull and bears since the depression of 1930.
Of course there is always someone expecting an cyclical bear market. See article at the MNS Money.
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