Dave Price is the founder of Harbinger Capital Markets. His speech was entitled: "Smart Macro Analysis: Understanding the Big Picture will Help Make You Money".
We are short term orientated and we miss the big picture. Deflationary tendencies dominate as core US consumer price index at 1.8% is lower than S&P500's dividends at 2.09%. Canadians think that oil is coming back. Consumer spending is up and this is taking US & Canadian Autos spending up. Canadians can invest in auto parts. The best stock would be Canadian Tire (TSX-CTC.A).
Another investment strategy would be in logistics. There is record tonnage on the road in the US. The railroads are running at record levels. The Ports are backed up. So is the economy bad? The answer is no. There are record sales in the US. There are lots of manufacturing orders. Where is money coming from? First people are less worried about paying their mortgages. Also Dow Chemicals have just recorded record earnings. This was because of cheap gas prices.
For China imports of iron ore will be lower next year. There is no turn around in India. The record earnings in the US is because of cost cutting. Dividend increases are happening in US industrials and tech. The same is happening in Canada. Internet security is a growth industry.
Canadian banks have outperformed other banks and are still a good place to be. REITs are also a good place to be.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.
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