Thursday, April 27, 2017

The Other Side

First I would like to say that I today bought some 200 shares of Home Capital Group at $6.80. I had bought shares in this company in March of this year and have, of course, lost money on them. The market has probably overreacted, but there are tons of problems at this company. Now I will just wait and see how this turns out. I believe that I will have a loss in any event, but perhaps not as great as if I sold today.

This is a very interesting blog by Michael Batnick on The Irreverent Investor . One section I find very interesting is how few stock do well over the longer term. Relatively few stocks tend to do most of the wealth creation by stocks. So he feel that you should try to avoid bad stocks rather than focusing on good stocks. (By the way, CRSP is Center for Research in Security Prices.)

Reading this made me add another column to my Index to my stocks with column entitled Total Return. This will show the IRR I have made over the time I held a stock. Currently I have 50 stocks and of these 2 I have just bought so I do not have IRR values on this. Of the other 48 stocks, I have made a profit on 41 and have a loss on 7. Of these 48 stocks I have 33 stocks with an IRR of 8% or higher. See spreadsheet on this here.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Power Financial Corp. (TSX-PWF, OTC-POFNF)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about WSP Global Inc. (TSX-WSP, OTC- WSPOF)... learn more on Friday, April 28, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram with #walktoronto.

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Pension Crisis

There is a crisis in the US about pension as written up by Danielle DiMartino Boothin in this Bloombergarticle. But this is not confined to the US. Here is a Canadian article by Canadian Federation of Independent Business. They are not the only ones sounding alarms. There is also an article Kathryn May in the Financial Post

The thing is you can find all sorts of articles on Pension Plans worldwide. We are living longer so retirement years are much longer than anticipated. Even though we are living longer pensionable age is lower than it used to be. There are fewer workers to support retirees and this problem will only get worse as worldwide and regional population stabilizes and then declines.

What people also do not realize is that retirement is really a relatively new idea. People used to work until they died. Very few people used to live long enough to actually be old and retire. They would have also had to have some money to retire. Now people expect to have 20 to 30 years in retirement. Some live even longer in retirement. This takes a lot of savings to do this.

I am so glad that I did my own planning and am managing my own money. It may not be the simplest thing, but it is also not that difficult. I started to learn about investing by buying some large companies that paid dividends. I tried to educate myself ahead of time, but a lot of the information was not sinking in until I started actually to invest. So basically I learned investing by doing it.

Not everything is fine. I feel that I am being punished tax wise because I did too well investing my RRSP money. I am also being punished tax wise because I set up my own pension plan that has increased by higher than the rate of inflation, no matter what the inflation really is. My largest expenditure yearly is now Tax at 23% of my total budget in 2016.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS, OTC-FRTSF)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Power Financial Corp. (TSX-PWF, OTC-POFNF)... learn more on Wednesday, April 26, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Dividend Changes 2

Today, I want to revisit the information I have on dividend increases and decreases for the stocks I follow. Most of my stocks started out as Dividend Payers. Currently 14 stocks are not paying any dividends and this would be some 9.46% of the stocks that I follow. Three of these stocks never had dividends, so 7.43% of the stocks I follow have suspended their dividends. The three stocks that never paid dividends are Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP0, Blackberry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY) and Trigon Metals Inc. (TSX-TM, OTC-PNTZF) (which used to be Kombat Copper Inc.).

Mths 2017 2017 2016 2016 2015 2015 2014 2014 Med Med
Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr
Jan 5 1 4 0 4 0 4.0 0.0
Feb 10 0 5 2 8 0 14 0 9.0 0.0
Mar 23 0 18 5 19 3 15 1 18.5 2.0
Apr 10 2 8 4 9 3 14 0 9.5 2.5
May 3 2 6 1 7 1 6.0 1.0
Jun 18 0 14 1 14 1 14.0 1.0
Jul 3 1 6 1 3 0 3.0 1.0
Aug 4 0 4 2 9 0 4.0 0.0
Sep 7 1 7 3 9 0 7.0 1.0
Oct 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0
Nov 6 0 4 1 5.0 0.5
Dec 12 0 13 2 13 0 13.0 0.0
Tot 48 3 88 15 95 18 99 4 94.0 10.0
154 31% 2% 57% 10% 62% 12% 64% 3% 61% 6%


What you can see in these charts is the percentage of stocks that have increased or decreased dividends. So far this year some 31% of the stocks I follow have increased their dividends. This is compared to 57% in 2016, 62% in 2015 and 64% in 2014. So, so far this year in the first quarter about half the number which increased dividends in recent years has increased their dividends.

You can also see in the first chart that certain months seem to have more dividend increases than other months. Those months are March, June and December.

Mths 2017 2017 2016 2016 2015 2015 2014 2014 Med Med
Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr
Jan 5 1 4 0 4 0 4.0 0.0
Feb 10 0 5 2 8 0 14 0 9.0 0.0
Mar 23 0 18 5 19 3 15 1 18.5 2.0
Apr 10 2 8 4 9 3 14 0 9.5 2.5
Tot 48 3 35 11 40 6 43 1 41.0 4.5
154 31% 2% 23% 7% 26% 4% 28% 1% 27% 3%


In this chart you can see that so far this year, more companies have increased their dividends than in prior years to the end of April. Here you see that 31% have increased dividends to the end of April. By this time in 2016 23% had, in 2015 26% had and in 2014 27% had. You can also see that in 2017 there were fewer decreases at 2% than there were for other years expect for 2014 which only had a 1% of companies decreasing their dividends.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Veresen Inc. (TSX-VSN, OTC-FCGYF)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF)... learn more on Friday, April 21, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

TD Bank Problems

I wrote earlier about Have Banks Learned Nothing... on my blog. It seems the TD Bank is taking the complaints seriously in a recent report about the problem on Huffington Post. It is a smart move. Since I criticized the bank I thought it was only fair that I should mention that they were trying to fix the problem.

I remember when I was working that there was a problem in an area. The company knew it had a problem but did not know what it was. My company called in another company to help find out the problem. A lot of the people in the area meet with this company in an environment where people could feel that they could talk without retribution.

It was a very smart idea and it worked. My company found out what the problem was and fixed it. A situation was set up so that the employees felt that they could talk about problems.

On my other blog I wrote today about Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Veresen Inc. (TSX-VSN, OTC-FCGYF)... learn more on Wednesday, April 19, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.

Thursday, April 13, 2017

Dividend Changes

Since I started to do my monthly list of dividends stocks I follow, I have stated how many of my companies have increased or decreased (including suspension of) dividends. Below is a table of the results. You can see that we are doing quite well so far in 2017. The increases per month are above the medina and the decreases are below the median for the last few years

Mths 2017 2017 2016 2016 2015 2015 2014 2014 Med Med
Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr
Jan 5 1 4 0 4 0 4.0 0.0
Feb 10 0 5 2 8 0 14 0 9.0 0.0
Mar 23 0 18 5 19 3 15 1 18.5 2.0
Apr 10 2 8 4 9 3 14 0 9.5 2.5
May 3 2 6 1 7 1 6.0 1.0
Jun 18 0 14 1 14 1 14.0 1.0
Jul 3 1 6 1 3 0 3.0 1.0
Aug 4 0 4 2 9 0 4.0 0.0
Sep 7 1 7 3 9 0 7.0 1.0
Oct 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0
Nov 6 0 4 1 5.0 0.5
Dec 12 0 13 2 13 0 13.0 0
Tot 48 3 88 15 95 18 99 4 94.0 10.0


If you look at the chart below it would seem that to April in 2017 is better in the increases that other years, but does not beat 2014 in decreases.

Mths 2017 2017 2016 2016 2015 2015 2014 2014 Med Med
Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr
Jan 5 1 4 0 4 0 4.0 0.0
Feb 10 0 5 2 8 0 14 0 9.0 0.0
Mar 23 0 18 5 19 3 15 1 18.5 2.0
Apr 10 2 8 4 9 3 14 0 9.5 2.5
Tot 48 3 35 11 40 6 43 1 41.0 4.5


All this could be looked at very positively. Dividends are generally increased because the company feels that it will be getting earnings to cover them.

Of course everything probably depends on your point of view. You could view increasing number of dividend increases as either good or bad. They could probably point to a strong market or a market top.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Pembina Pipelines Corp. (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA)... learn more. Today, I will write about Barclays PLC ADR (LSE-BARC, NYSE-BCS)... learn more on Thursday, April 13, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Stock Suggestions

In my blog entry for last Tuesday, I asked for suggestions of new stocks to follow as a number of ones I followed have been bought out. I am currently working on Pizza Pizza Royalty Corp. TSX-PZA). The suggestions I got from readers are listed below. I will start to look at these and decide what other stocks to follow.

Suggestions:

A and W Revenue Royalties Income Fund (TSX-AW.UN)
Fiera Capital (TSX-FSZ)
Genworth MI Canada Inc. (TSX-MIC)
Globe Water Resources TSX-GWR
Hardwoods Distribution Inc. (TSX-HWD)

Open Text (TSE-OTEX)
Labrador Iron Ore (LIF)
SIR Royalty Income Fund (TSX-SRV.UN)
TFI International Inc. (TSX-NFI)
ZCL Composites TSX=ZCL

Other Suggestions:

Boyd Group Income Fund (TSX-BYD.UN)
Corby Spirit and Wine Ltd (TSX-CSW.A)
Domtar Corp (TSX-UFS)
Gildan Activewear Inc. (TAX-GIL)
Logistec Corporation (TAX-LGT.B)

MTY Food Group Inc. (TSX-MTY)
Plaza Retail REIT (TSX- PLZ.UN)
Ritchie Bros Auction (TSX-RBA)

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Pembina Pipelines Corp. (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA)... learn more on April 12, 2017 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Mystery of Capital by Hernando De Soto learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.

Thursday, April 6, 2017

Something to Buy April 2017

There is always something to buy in the stock market. On Tuesday, I put out a list of the stocks that I covered and showed what stock might be a good deal based on dividend yield. Now I am trying to categorize what sorts of stocks may be a good deal based on dividend yield.

The advantages to using dividend yield to judge how cheap or expensive a stock is, is that you are not using estimates or old data (like last reported quarter's data). You are using today's stock price and today's dividend yield.

For other testing, like using P/E Ratios and Price/Graham Price Ratios, you use EPS estimates or from the last reported financial quarter. When using P/S Ratios, P/CF Ratios or P/BV Ratios you are using data from the last reported financial quarter.

This system does not work well for old Income Trust companies. These companies had quite high Dividend Yields which will probably never be seen again. So I started a column called VT (for Valid Test) and this applies to checking stock price using dividend yield. If not a valid test I use N to show this. For these stocks, you might be better comparing the current dividend yield to the 5 year median dividend yield.

However, no system is perfect. But if you are interested in buying a stock a list of stocks cheap or reasonable using dividend yield data might be a good place to start.

Categorizing stocks is not as simple as it might seem. Every site you go to has categorized stocks a bit differently. I try to keep this as simple as possible. See Something to Buy April 2017 Spreadsheet to see what stocks are showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr). As in other spreadsheets, you can highlight a line or a number of lines for better viewing.

In the following notes I am only going to list stocks showing as cheap using the historical high dividend yields (P/Hi) and historical median dividend yields (P/Med).

I follow 21 stocks in the Consumer Discretionary category. None of these stocks are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Nine (or 43%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are DHX Media Ltd. (TSX-DHX.A, OTC-DHXMF), Dorel Industries (TSX-DII.B), Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF), High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF), Leon's Furniture (TSX-LNF); Magna International Inc. (TSX-MG), Newfoundland Capital Corp (TSX-NCC.A), Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. (TSX-RET.A) and Thomson Reuters Corp (TSX-TRI, NYSE-TRI) Both Canadian Tire Corporation (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF) and Goeasy Ltd. (TSX-GSY, OTC-EHMEF) have been removed from this list.

I follow 12 Consumer Staples stocks. There is one company showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield and that is Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF). Four stocks (or 33%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These are Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF), Jean Coutu Group Inc. (TSX-PJC.A, OTC-JCOUF), Loblaw Companies (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) and Metro Inc. (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF). There is no change from last month.

I only follow two Health Care stocks and both are US stocks. None of these stocks are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. They are both cheap by the historical median dividend yield. The stocks are Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) and Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). This is the same as for last month.

I follow 12 Real Estate stocks. None of these stocks are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Three stocks (or 25%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN); Granite Real Estate (TSX-GRT.UN) and Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD. This is the same as last month.

I follow 8 Bank stocks. There is one company showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield and that is Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF). Three stocks (or 37.5%) are showing cheap by the historical median dividend yield. These stocks are CIBC (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM), Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF) and National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF). National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF) has been added back to this list.

I follow 13 Financial Service stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Seven (or 54%) stocks are showing cheap by the historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC-ACCFF), AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B), Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF), CI Financial (TSX-CIX), Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS), IGM Financial (TSX-IGM) and Power Corp (TSX-POW). There is no change from last month.

I follow 5 Insurance stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Three stocks (or 60%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Great-West Lifeco Inc. (TSX-GWO); Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC) and Power Financial Corp (TSX-PWF). Sun Life Financial (TSX-SLF has been removed from this list.

I follow 33 Industrial stocks. Because I have so many and Industrial is not very descriptive, I have divided my Industrial stocks into 4 separate categories under Industrial. They are Construction, Industrial, Manufacturing and (Business) Services.

I have 6 Construction stocks. None are cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks or 33% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are and SNC-Lavalin (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF) and Stantec Inc. (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN). There is no change from last month.

I have 3 stocks I have left with the sub-index of Industrial. None are cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks or 67% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF), and Russel Metals (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). There is no change from last month.

I have 9 Manufacturing stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Five stocks or 56% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Canam Group Inc. (TSX-CAM, OTC-CNMGA), Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF), Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (TSX-HPS.A, OTC-HMDPF), Intertape Polymer Group Inc. (TSX-ITP, OTC-ITPOF) and PFB Corp (TSX-PFB, OTC-PFBOF). There is no change from last month except Canexus Corporation (TSX-CUS, OTC-CXUSF) will be removed from this list next month as it has been removed from the TSX.

I have 15 Services stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Three stocks or 20% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI), Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF) and Transcontinental Inc. (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF). There is no change from last month.

I follow 7 Material stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. One stock or 14% is showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield and that stock is Methanex Corp (TSX-MX, NASDAQ-MEOH). Methanex Corp (TSX-MX, NASDAQ-MEOH) has been added to this list.

I follow 10 Energy stocks. One Stock or (10%) is showing as cheap by the historical high dividend yield. It is Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF). There are three stocks (or 30%) showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ), Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF); and Suncor Energy (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). There is no change from last month.

I follow 8 Tech stocks. None are showing as cheap by historical high dividend yield. Five stocks (or 63%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF) Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF), Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF), MacDonald Dettwiler & Assoc. (TSX-MDA, OTC-MDDWF), and Sylogist Ltd (TSXV-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF). There is no change from last month.

I follow 8 of the Infrastructure type utility companies. None are showing as cheap by historical high dividend yield. Two stocks (or 25%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF) and Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB). This is the same as last month.

I follow 12 of the Power type utility companies. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stock (or 33%) is showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. Those stocks are ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF) and Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRAF). Canadian Utilities Ltd (TSX-CU, OTC-CDUAF) and Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS, OTC-FRTSF) have been removed from this list.

I follow 5 of the Telecom Service type utility companies. No stock is showing cheap by the historical high dividend yield. Three stocks (or 60%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are BCE (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE), Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR) and Telus Corp (TSX-T, NYSE-TU). BCE (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE) has been added to this this list. Manitoba Telecom (TSX-MBT, OTC-MOBAF) will be removed from this list as it has been bought out and delisted from the TSX.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Russel Metals Inc. (TSX-RUS, OTC- RUSMF)... learn more Tomorrow, I will write about Leon's Furniture Ltd. (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF)... learn more on Friday, April 7, 2017 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Islamic Exceptionalism by Shadi Hamid learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk . The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.