Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Money Show 2017 - Peter Hodson

Peter Hodson spoke in a Friday afternoon session on "Five Things (times five) Investors need to know: Investors seem to Forget the Basics Always". Peter Hodson is the Editor of Canadian Money Saver Magazine. Their site is www.canadianmoneysaver.ca. I went to this talk because at other Money Shows the Canadian Money Saver has put on great talks. Peter Hodson runs 5iResearch that only provides research. He said he bought his first stock at age 11.

You should never sell a stock just because the stock is down or just because the stock is up.

Dividend growth is more important than dividend yield. High yields can be a problem. When yields get high the stock will probably fall. Some companies do not change their dividends. You can pick a high yield stock if the whole market is down. It is better to buy a stock with a 2% yield that is growing than a 9% yield that is not.

Do not sell too early. Selling too early will never make you rich. You cannot get a 10 bagger if you sell after a stock has just doubled.

High Fees will make you poor. Mutual Fund managers are making too much money. The lower cost of ETFs buying maybe the way you should go. If a Mutual fund has 2.5% fees and the Top 10 stocks are typical, why are you in that Mutual Fund? He had Mutual Funds and his own investments. His own investments were doing better.

Ride your winner stocks. Earning momentum does not change in one quarter. Good news and rising prices attract more investment. Analyst upgrades can be very positive for stocks. Pay attention to what analyst are dong. That is what they are upgrading and what they are downgrading.

Market Capitalization is import we have $100M, 500M and $1B market caps in Canada. When a stock bumps up to a new lever it will attract new investors. Often investors are not interested in a $5 stock, but are when the stock reaches $10. Stocks can shift into a different level or group of investors.

Gambling is not investing.

He does not like share dilutions. He likes companies that never dilute shareholders. Constellation Software Inc. (TSX-CSU) has never issued new shares. For example, you do not want to buy a company that increased their shares 10 times over the past 10 years.

Corporate earnings are the key. Stock prices reflect earrings and earnings trends. Most other news is noise. If earnings are not going up, see why. Canadian companies will struggle because of the rising Canadian dollar.

For interest rates, direction and surprise is the key. Expectation of inflation can change. When rates reverse direction things are changing. Rates are currently going up because of a strong economy.

You should do proper section allocation. Ignore the TSX sector allocation as it has 60% financial and resources. No not invest this way. You do not spend an index. Sectors are based on market cap. There are 11 TSX sectors and you should invest in them all.

Insider buying is more important than insiders selling. There are lots of reasons for insiders to sell. They generally buy because they feel confidence in the company.

Do not focus on quarterly results. The best companies are set up for long term growth that may be at the expense of a quarter or two. However, investors still pay for consistency. 10 days are not import, but 10 years is. You should keep an eye on the longer term.

High debt can destroy a company faster than anything else. Avoid companies with high debt whenever possible. For example, Concordia International Corp (TSX CXR) has debt to cash flow of 2times to 3 times. Avoid companies with debt to cash flow of 4 times to 5 times. It is hard to bankrupt a company with no debt.

When a stock pays its first dividend that is a bullish sign from a small or mid cap. You start small and grow.

He likes insider ownership. Insiders need to own shares not options. You should compare insider's salary to ownership. For example, the insiders at Constellation Software Inc. (TSX-CSU) are committed.

Find companies with a competitive edge. Alpha, Google and Facebook all have a competitive edge. Companies might have patents, a cost advantage or market share. Cineplex Inc. (TSX-CGX) has 70% of the market, so this is good.

Ignore target prices. Credit Suisse once said to sell Netflix at $1.50 and it is now $175. Target prices can cause you to trade. They are highly inaccurate at the best of times. There are too many factors to consider other than a company when setting target prices.

New issues are sold not bought. They often have 5% commissions. You should stick with what you know.

Do not be afraid of high valuations and say that a company at 30 P/E Ratio is too high. Do not be afraid as there may be a reason for it. Big winners are expensive. A great, great company does not go down very much. If you want a stock, just buy it.

Do not get cute. If you want a stock, just buy it. If you want to sell a stock, just sell it. You should make a decision and move on.

Sell your losers first. Generally a stock is down for a reason. Losers move down and winners move up. If you bought a stock at $30 and it is now $5 and you want it to go back to $30. That would take a lot to do. Do not average down. If you are wrong about a stock at $25, you will not be right about it at $10.

Hope is not a winning strategy.

Do not have too many stocks. 30 stocks are enough.

Time is your biggest ally. If markets are at record highs everyone is winning. Today's peak is the next decade's trough. Facebook at $17 in 2012 and now is $171.

After you do fundamental valuation, you should look at technical analysis.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX-TCK.B, NYSE-TCK)... learn more. Next, I will write about Logistec Corp (TSX- LGT.B, OTC-LTKBF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 18, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Money Show 2017 - John Collier

John Collier spoke in the afternoon session on "The Biggest Breakthrough in Desalination". John Collier is from Reliable One Resources. Their site is www.reliableoneresources.com. I went to this talk, not because I was interested in investing in this alternative investment, but because I was interested to hear what they were doing.

There are 8 to 9 different processes to treat water and do desalination. By 2035 some two thirds of people will face water scarcity.

There are earth quakes in Oklahoma from 1978 to the current. There have been a 1,000 times more quakes because water is injected into the ground. Oklahoma's water is contaminated and salty. Water produced from Oklahoma's oil fields used to be injected into the earth. It cost $16 a barrel to dispose of water. With Reliable One Resources they can take out minerals etc and sell them and the water and it costs the oil companies $0.

The company is building a new plan in Pennsylvania. They get revenue from cleaning water. Revenue is from the oils, minerals and water resale. They can desalinize water efficiently. Their solutions are very cost effective. This is a win for everyone.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (TSX-ENF, OTC-EBGUF)... learn more. Next, I will write about HNZ Group Inc. (TSX-HNZ, OTC- CDHPF)... learn more on Friday, October 13 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Money Show 2017 - Sid Mokhtari

Sid Mokhtari spoke in the afternoon session on "Using Systematic Processes for Investment Decisions". Sid Mokhtari is a Chartered Market Technician and Executive Director of CIBC World Markets. Their site is www.CIBC.ca.

Basically he talked about only buying when a stock has momentum. Momentum can drag your stock up. He said with analysts there are momentum guys, value guys and growth guys. He said that using momentum stocks do the best with value next and growth further behind. What he suggests is to buy value stocks when they have momentum.

He likes quantitative guys and their strategies. He looks at 9 monthly trend strategies. He said to be on the right side of a trend and buy with the momentum. He said to buy stocks that break out to the upside. He uses 180 day moving averages. This is a simple way to measure a trend. That is using a moving average.

He says to pick stocks that are trending. This is carpe momentum that is "seize the moment" in Latin. Funds use momentum, value and growth. The best returns are tied to momentum methodology. However, things that go up fast can fall fast also.

CIBC came up with 10 stocks to buy this month and sell at the end of the month. This is First Asset U.S. TrendLeaders Index ETF (CAD Hedged) with a symbol of SID on the TSX. See information this this ETF here. CIBC customers have done well with this system.

You can do different momentum tests and trend tests to pick stocks. Always make stock picking a system and a process.

On my other blog I wrote today about Linamar Corporation (TSX-LNR, OTC-LIMAF)... learn more. Next, I will write about Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (TSX-ENF, OTC-EBGUF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 11, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Thursday, October 5, 2017

Something to Buy October 2017

There is always something to buy in the stock market. On Tuesday, I put out a list of the stocks that I covered and showed what stock might be a good deal based on dividend yield. Now I am trying to categorize what sorts of stocks may be a good deal based on dividend yield.

The advantages to using dividend yield to judge how cheap or expensive a stock is, is that you are not using estimates or old data (like last reported quarter's data). You are using today's stock price and today's dividend yield.

For other testing, like using P/E Ratios and Price/Graham Price Ratios, you use EPS estimates or from the last reported financial quarter. When using P/S Ratios, P/CF Ratios or P/BV Ratios you are using data from the last reported financial quarter.

This system does not work well for old Income Trust companies. These companies had quite high Dividend Yields which will probably never be seen again. So I started a column called VT (for Valid Test) and this applies to checking stock price using dividend yield. If not a valid test I use N to show this. For these stocks, you might be better comparing the current dividend yield to the 5 year median dividend yield.

However, no system is perfect. But if you are interested in buying a stock a list of stocks cheap or reasonable using dividend yield data might be a good place to start.

Categorizing stocks is not as simple as it might seem. Every site you go to has categorized stocks a bit differently. I try to keep this as simple as possible. See Something to Buy October 2017 Spreadsheet to see what stocks are showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr). As in other spreadsheets, you can highlight a line or a number of lines for better viewing.

In the following notes I am only going to list stocks showing as cheap using the historical high dividend yields (P/Hi) and historical median dividend yields (P/Med).

I follow 22 stocks in the Consumer Discretionary category. One of these stocks is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield and that is Newfoundland Capital Corp (TSX-NCC.A). Eight (or 36%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are DHX Media Ltd. (TSX-DHX.A, OTC-DHXMF), Dorel Industries (TSX-DII.B), Goeasy Ltd. (TSX-GSY, OTC-EHMEF), High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF), Leon's Furniture (TSX-LNF); Magna International Inc. (TSX-MG), Newfoundland Capital Corp (TSX-NCC.A) and Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. (TSX-RET.A). Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF) is being removed from cheap by historically median dividend yield.

I follow 12 Consumer Staples stocks. No companies are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Five stocks (or 42%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These are Alimentation Couche-Tard (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF), Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF), Jean Coutu Group Inc. (TSX-PJC.A, OTC-JCOUF), Loblaw Companies (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) and Metro Inc. (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF). Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF) is no longer showing as cheap by historically high dividend yield. .

I only follow two Health Care stocks and both are US stocks. None of these stocks are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. They are both cheap by the historical median dividend yield. The stocks are Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) and Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). This is the same as for last month.

I follow 12 Real Estate stocks. None of these stocks are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks (or 33%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC- ARESF); Granite Real Estate (TSX-GRT.UN, NYSE-GRP.U) and Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF). There is no change from last month.

I follow 8 Bank stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks (or 25%) are showing cheap by the historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS), and CIBC (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM). National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF), Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY) and Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD has been deleted from this list as cheap by historical median dividend yield.

I follow 12 Financial Service stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Eight (or 67%) stocks are showing cheap by the historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC-ACCFF), AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B), Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF), CI Financial (TSX-CIX), Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF), Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS), IGM Financial (TSX-IGM) and Power Corp (TSX-POW). This is the same as last month.

I follow 5 Insurance stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Three stocks (or 60%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Great-West Lifeco Inc. (TSX-GWO); Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC) and Power Financial Corp (TSX-PWF). Sun Life Financial (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF) has been deleted from this list.

I follow 31 Industrial stocks. Because I have so many and Industrial is not very descriptive, I have divided my Industrial stocks into 4 separate categories under Industrial. They are Construction, Industrial, Manufacturing and (Business) Services.

I have 6 Construction stocks. None are cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks or 33% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are and SNC-Lavalin (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF) and Stantec Inc. (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN). There is no change from last month.

I have 3 stocks I have left with the sub-index of Industrial. None are cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks or 67% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF), and Russel Metals (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). There is no change from last month.

I have 7 Manufacturing stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks or 57% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF), Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (TSX-HPS.A, OTC-HMDPF), Intertape Polymer Group Inc. (TSX-ITP, OTC-ITPOF) and PFB Corp (TSX-PFB, OTC-PFBOF). There is no change from last month.

I have 15 Services stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks or 27% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI), Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF), Transcontinental Inc. (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF) and Wajax Corp (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF). Wajax Corp (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF) and been added to this list.

I follow 8 Material stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. One stock or 14% is showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield and that stock is Methanex Corp (TSX-MX, NASDAQ-MEOH). This is the same as for last month.

I follow 10 Energy stocks. No stock is showing as cheap by the historical high dividend yield. There are four stocks (or 40%) showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ), Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF); Mullen Group (TSX-MTL, OTC-MLLGF) and Suncor Energy (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF) is no longer showing as cheap by the historical high dividend yield. Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE) is no longer showing as cheap by the historical median dividend yield.

I follow 8 Tech stocks. None are showing as cheap by historical high dividend yield. Five stocks (or 63%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF) Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF), Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF), MacDonald Dettwiler & Assoc. (TSX-MDA, OTC-MDDWF), and Sylogist Ltd (TSXV-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF). There is no change from last month.

I follow 8 of the Infrastructure type utility companies. None are showing as cheap by historical high dividend yield. Two stocks (or 25%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF) and Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB). This is the same as last month.

I follow 12 of the Power type utility companies. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stock (or 33%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. Those stocks are Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (TSX-AQN, NYSE-AQN), ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF), Canadian Utilities Ltd (TSX-CU, OTC-CDUAF) and Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRAF). Canadian Utilities Ltd (TSX-CU, OTC-CDUAF has been added.

I follow 4 of the Telecom Service type utility companies. No stock is showing cheap by the historical high dividend yield. Four stocks (or 100%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are BCE (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE), Quarterhaill Inc. (TSX-QTRH, NASDAQ-QTRH), Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR) and Telus Corp (TSX-T, NYSE-TU). There is no change from last month.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Le Chateau Inc. (TSX-CTU.A, OTC-LCUAF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be K-Bro Linen Inc. (TSX-KBL, OTC-KBRLF)... learn more on Friday, October 06 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk . The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Suzanne's Upcoming Art Exhibit

Suzanne Gorenflo has a picture in the upcoming Artists' Network show at the Blue Crow Gallery
Exhibition Dates: October 4, 2017 to October 30, 2017
Theme is: Don't Sweat the Small Stuff

Place: Blue Crow Gallery
1610 Gerrard Street East (Near Coxwell)

Painting: Kensington Market Grande Dame 20 Kensington Avenue


Dividend Stocks October 2017

First I want to point out that not all of the stocks I follow are great investments. I follow a diverse selection of stocks. There are some that I would never invest in personally. I follow a number of resource stocks even though I personally have little invested in this area. I follow what I find interesting and with resource stocks, I think it is important for Canadians to know what is happening in the resource area. On the other hand I do follow of good number of great dividend growth stocks.

The theory is that you should use the dividend yield to see if a dividend stock is selling at a stock price that is relatively cheap. A stock price is considered cheap if it is selling at a dividend yield higher than the historical high yield or higher than the historical average yield or historical median yield. See my spreadsheet at dividend growth stocks that I just updated for October 2017.

On this list,
  • I have 1 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
  • I have 36 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield
  • I have 63 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical median dividend yield and
  • 59 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.
When I did my list last list in June 2017,
  • I have 3 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
  • I have 38 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield
  • I have 67 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical median dividend yield and
  • 63 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.
When I did my list in January 2014,
  • I had 9 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
  • I had 45 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield and
  • 39 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.
If you had one share of each stock, total dividends last month would be $157.04. This month dividends would be $158.12. (Change in dividends due to US/CDN currency change.) Of the stock that I follow 0 stocks has raised their dividends since last month.

Also, of the stocks that I follow, 0 stocks decreased or suspended their dividends.

Most of my stocks started out as Dividend Payers. Currently 13 stocks are not paying any dividends and this would be some 10.3% of the stocks that I follow. Three of these stocks never had dividends, so 8.39% of the stocks I follow have suspended their dividends. The three stocks that never paid dividends are Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP0, Blackberry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY) and Trigon Metals Inc. (TSX-TM, OTC-PNTZF).

I am showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr). See these fields on the right side of the file. You can highlight a particular stock using your cursor to highlight the appropriate line.

There are always some stocks to buy because they are priced reasonably. There are always stocks to currently avoid because they are overpriced. Looking at dividend growth stocks that are selling at stock prices that give them a dividend yield above the historical median dividend yield are probably the best bet.

The stocks that are selling at prices that give them a dividend yield above the historical high yield could be good stocks to buy. However, these stocks may be selling so cheap because of current troubles, especially financial troubles and should be treated with caution. Do not forget that I have all the stocks I follow on this spreadsheet and some are much better investments than others.

You should always investigate a stock before you buy. Sometimes different stocks in certain sectors are just out of favour or the stock market is just in one of its declines. However, a stock may be relatively cheap because it has problems. That is why you should always investigate a stock before buying.

Looking at stock this way is equivalent to a stock filter. A main problem I know of is for the old income trusts. These companies have generally lowered their dividend yields forever and they will probably never get back to the old dividend yield highs they made as an income trust company. For these stocks, you might be better comparing the current dividend yield to the 5 year median dividend yield. I also started a column called VT (for Valid Test) and this applies to checking stock price using dividend yield. If not a valid test I use N to show this.

Also, on some stocks I have a lot more information years in my spreadsheets than for other stocks. So, finding a stock on the list as "cheap" is only the first step in finding a stock to buy. This is the same with any other sort of stock filters that you can use.

The last thing to remember is that I have entering figures into a spreadsheet. I could put them in incorrectly, I can transpose figures and I can misread figures. This is another great reason why you should check a stock out before investing. As this is just a filter, it works better on some stocks than on others.

See my entry on my methodology in establishing the historical dividend yield highs and lows for the stocks that I cover. I have an entry on my introduction to Dividend Growth. You might want to look at my original entry on Dividend Growth Stocks. I have also written about why I like Dividend Growth companies.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Granite REIT (TSX-GRT.UN, NYSE-GRP.U)... learn more. Next, I will write about Le Chateau Inc. (TSX-CTU.A, OTC-LCUAF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 4, 2017 around 5 pm

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram with #walktoronto.

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Money Show 2017 - Stephen Moore

Stephen Moore spoke in the opening ceremonies on "Let's call it Trumponomics: Can it work for Investors and Workers". Stephen Moore is Distinguished Visiting Fellow of the Heritage Foundation. Their site is www.heritage.org. The Heritage Foundation is a conservative think tank.

He thinks that America will regain prosperity. He is optimistic of the US economy because of Trumponomics. Most politicians are charismatic in public and jerks in private. Trump is a jerk in public and charismatic in private.

He is pro-Trump. He thought the odds of him winning were 20 to one. Even on the election night at 6:30 pm Hillary's pollsters said she had a 95% chance of winning.

The single biggest story currently is shale oil and gas. The oil and gas boom has outpaced the US economy. It is a good news story. The US, Canada and Mexico will out-produce the Middle East. We will not need to buy oil from the Middle East (a terrorist region).

The falling cost of energy is great for the consumers who can now spend what they would have spent on energy on other things. The future is $50 barrels of oil. It will never go back up to $100 a barrel again. We are not running out of oil and gas. So far green industries cannot survive without massive Government subsidies.

We are in the start of a bull market. We have had the worse recovery since WWII. It has been a long and shallow recovery. In an average recovery the economy grows 29%. In the current one it has grown by 14.9%. Obama raised taxes and he raised spending. With Reaganomics, Regan said that the government is not the solution, it is the problem. Reagan grew the economy 36%. Obama grew the economy 14.9%.

Last year the economy under Obama the GDP growth was 1.6%. With Trump the economy grew 3%. It is now growing at 3.4%. The 1970's were not that flat in growth. If you take inflation into account, it went down.

Kennedy said that the tax rates were too high and the revenues were too low. This is surprising for a democrat. Current US corporate rates are high at 40% with the rest of the world having rates of 20 to 25%. Canada has corporate tax rates of 20 to 25% and US companies are moving to Canada. Ireland has rates of 12.5%. He would like to see US rates cut to 20% to make the US more competitive.

If rates were cut it would be good for the US market. There is a healthy debate going on about whether or not a tax cut is priced into the market. There is a 50-50 change of a tax cut to 20%.

We have had years of risk aversion even with low interest rates. The war on business is over with Obama gone. This is positive for the markets. Education and Health care costs have gone up a lot. They are government control but are a third party payer system. Education in Northwestern is $63,000 a year.

The years for tech to get into homes at the rate of 50% have changed. It took the phone 71 years for 50% penetration. It took the iPod 4 years. In 1987 the cell phone was like a brick and it cost $4,000. Tech will liberate people.

There is a new engine without spark plugs that will increase the gas engines efficiency by 30 to 40%. He will bet on it against the electric cars. He bets that a natural gas car will make the electric cars look like a bad idea.

If growth goes up to 3.5% to 4% then the debt problem goes down. Health case is a mess, but republicans are not good at this. There needs to be tax cuts for the republicans to retain power. He does not think that Trump will get impeached. He thinks there is only a 2 to 3% chance of that happening.

In Illinois 1 out of every 4 tax dollars go to pensioners. California is also in financial trouble.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Great-West Lifeco Inc. (TSX-GWO, OTC-GWLIF)... learn more. Next, I will write about Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF)... learn more on Friday, September 29, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.