Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Money Show 2017 - Benj Gallander

Benj Gallander spoke in a Saturday morning session for Canadian Money Saver on "Simple Changes People Can Make to Improve Investment Returns". Benj Gallander is the President of Contra the Heard. Their site is www.contratheheard.com. I went because Canadian Money Saver sessions have given good talks in past Money Shows. Their site is www.canadianmoneysaver.ca.

The most interesting thing he said was they companies that have no debt have a hard time going bankrupt. He also mentioned that they have commentaries on their site.

Benj Gallander says he is a value guy. He says you can get better returns by turning off the noise. Cut the noise. Too many people react to it. Do not pay too much attention to your returns. Warren Buffett says that you should be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.

He says that rarely no more than 3 or 4 variables count in picking stocks. The rest is noise. No one cares more about your money than you do. Active investors do worse than passive investors. Active investors pay more fees.

Stay away from actively managed mutual funds. They have higher fees. Go to Mutual Funds that have lower fees. ETFs are even better.

Most people can manage their own money, even though a lot of people say differently. You should invest yourself and save. Benjamin Franklin said that the investment in knowledge is the best investment. Investing in your career is the best thing you can do.

John Temple said that the phrase "This time it is different" is the worst saying ever.

Bitcoin and crypto-currencies are really hot and the next big thing. You can make money on them, but you can also lose lots. What is big at this show is pot. When investing look to see who is in management. What have they done before? Some pot company managers previously ran mining companies that never went anywhere.

Improve you investment returns by saving money and buy things when they are cheap. You have to be patient. Try to control your emotions. Charles Munk (Warren Buffett's partner) said that you should identify stocks that you want to buy and then wait and get to know the stocks.

Walking is one of the best ways of thinking up new ideas. It is good to fine a few good things to do. However, realize that we cannot know everything.

Do not invest in IPO's. Most IPO's do not do well. However, sometimes with IPO's you can get lucky and make lots of money.

He likes companies that have been around at least 10 years. Diversification is good, but do not over do this. The rear view mirror is great for understanding, but you need to look to the future. The stock market is filled with people who know the price but not the value of anything.

It would be good if the Canadian tax system had reduced complexity. However, you can use it. You can use RRSPs, RESPs and TFSAs. Gain a certain amount of knowledge about these and use them. The RESPs are good as you put money into them and the government will also give you money. They can be a good deal.

He does not buy on margin. If you have credit card debt, the best return you can get is to pay of this debt.

Active traders use Quest Trade. The day traders do not make money, but Quest Trade does. It was harder to make money in the past because of investing fees. Now fees are cheap and most trades are for $9.99.

He does not believe that the market is perfectly efficient. You can make money by buying a company that is a take-over target. If the deal falls off the table, often the company still gets taken over later.

You have to have discipline. Without discipline you have no method. When he buys a stock he sets a sell price. They mostly stick to it but sometimes they can change it.

You should buy near the end of the year and take advantage of the Santa Claus rally. Often stocks go up after they sell them and sometimes they go down after they buy them. However, this is life.

After 9/11 airlines companies were decimated. They were so tough that people thought KLM would not make it. However, the company thought they would recover and they did. This is short term thinking against long term thinking.

They bought an US insurance company that had problems. They thought they would raise rates and do better later. At this time they have done less than nothing, but they still have the company. The company has no debt. Companies with no debt have a hard time going bankrupt. They will hold on to companies that have no debt. This might look stupid in the short term, but in the long term they can make money.

He thinks that climate change should influence your investment decisions. There are good and bad things about climate change. A possible good thing is that you can grow food in places that we could not before. However, on balance climate change is bad.

He thinks that marijuana should be legalized. However, this is going to cause problems.

He said that Trudeau's father was bad at economics. So is the son. We are heavy into debt and this makes no sense. Ontario liberals have huge problem with debt. It is causing them to sell off their crown jewels.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF)... learn more. Next, I will write about Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF)... learn more on Wednesday, November 1, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Money Show 2017 - Ryan Irvine 4

Ryan Irvine spoke in a Friday evening session on "Do it Yourself Stock Investment". Ryan Irvine is the President of Keystone. Part of this session had Aaron Dunn as the speaker. Their site is www.keystocks.com. I went because Keystone has given good talks in past Money Shows. It was a long session so I have broken my report into four parts.

This last section is on how to deal with Hot Tips. These are the questions you should ask yourself and deal with.

Step 1: Does the company have sales or revenue? Have someone actually paid for their product? It is an investment if they have sales but just a concept if there are no sales.

Step 2: Is the company making any money. Just looking at these first two items can remove 70% of ventures stocks from a list you might buy.

Step 3: Do they have a weak or strong balance sheet? If they have debt do they have the means of paying it off besides issuing new shares?

Step 4: Is there a positive or negative outlook for growth? To find this information go to the company's Management and Discussion Analysis (MD&A).

Step 5: Does the company have a reasonable valuation? What is the Price/Earnings Ratio? Is the P/E Ratio great than the current market? (The current market P/E Ratio is 18.)

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT)... learn more. Next, I will write about Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF)... learn more on Friday, October 27, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Money Show 2017 – Ryan Irvine 3

Ryan Irvine spoke in a Friday evening session on "Do it Yourself Stock Investment". Ryan Irvine is the President of Keystone. Part of this session had Aaron Dunn as the speaker. Their site is www.keystocks.com. I went because Keystone has given good talks in past Money Shows. It was a long session so I have broken my report into four parts.

Keystone also likes Dividend growth stocks. These are exciting because they work. Dividends provide a constant stream of income and will reduce losses. Growth dividends help total return. Why dividend growth? The difference between dividend growth and other stocks is the dividends. Over the longer term you can lose money on companies that do not pay dividends.

Another reason to like dividend growth is volatility. These stocks have lower volatility. Less volatility means less risk. The same rules apply that is the companies need to show profitability and cash flow. They need to grow in per share earnings and dividends. They need to be in a healthy financial position and have a reasonable valuation.

Avoid companies with high payout ratios. A payout ratio of 90% or above is high. Also avoid heavy concentrations in one industry in your stock picks.

What you want is a hybrid portfolio of 8 to 12 stocks across the 3 risk categories of Aggressive Portfolio, Moderate Portfolio and Conservative Portfolio.

One stock recommended is Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (TSX-BIP.UN). It is a global infrastructure company. It has very high quality assets. They continue to increase dividends or distributions. They are driven by organic growth investment and accretive acquisitions. They have recently bought a Brazilian gas transmission company and an Indian Telecom business. There is demand for high quality infrastructure. This is a long term investment.

Another pick is Algonquin Power and Utilities (TSX-AQN, NYSE-AQN). It is into renewable power and regulated utilities. They have had 6 straight years of dividend increase and focuses on North America. It is a solid company.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP)... learn more. Next, I will write about Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT)... learn more on Wednesday 25, 20157 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, October 20, 2017

Money Show 2017 - Ryan Irvine 2

Ryan Irvine spoke in a Friday evening session on "Do it Yourself Stock Investment". Ryan Irvine is the President of Keystone. Part of this session had Aaron Dunn as the speaker. Their site is www.keystocks.com. I went because Keystone has given good talks in past Money Shows. It was a long session so I have broken my report into four parts. This is the second part.

This company looks at small cap growth stocks. For Canadian stocks that is less than $500M and for the US that is less than $5B. Small cap stocks are not necessarily high risk. You can get higher returns from small caps stocks over the longer term. Smaller companies can be more rewarding. They like small caps that are trading at or near P/B Ratio of 1.00. They like especially small cap value stocks.

In 2006 Warren Buffet said that if had a $1M he would invest in smaller companies. He would make a higher return on a $1M company than on a $1B company. But you have to turn over lots of stocks to find the gems to invest in. Small caps lack coverage so you can find bargains. You should buy before the big institutions can by a stock. Big institutions have restrictions on what they can buy. Smaller cap have higher growth prospects. It is easier to go from $0.5M to $1M than from $0.5B to $1B.

Small caps can have higher insider ownership. Many large cap stocks started as small caps. Just investing in one recommendation can be bad as the recommendation can be wrong. Investing in a few small cap recommendations is better.

What you should look for is first a strong balance sheet with lack debt and positive working capital. Next you should look for positive cash flow and earnings growing over time. This is necessary for long term growth. Next you should look for sustainable growth. You can look for alterative valuations. The potential for dividends and dividend growth are good.

Another thing you want is a management team with significant share ownership. You want them to be in a business that can be understood. You would want the company to operate in a safe jurisdiction. You want a company with a positive industry outlook and a niche outlook. Lastly you want a company with a strong track record that meets or exceed their objectives.

A recommendation is Sylogist Ltd (TSX-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF). It has a published mission. It does critical software. Some 62% of their revenue is subscription based. It has zero debt and a strong balance sheet. It has a strong track record in revenue and EBITDA growth and dividend payments. There was a pause in growth in 2017 and you should buy for what it will do in 2018.

If growth is not on a per share basis it does you no good. What you want is growth at a reasonable price. The target for this company is a stock price of $12.15 to $12.45. The company is reinvesting for organic growth.

The next company that they recommended was Photon Control Inc (TSX-PHO, OTC- POCEF). This is on TSX-V. It designs and manufactures optical sensors to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Theirs are the sensors for the internet of things in toaster, shoes etc. They have growth in revenue and profit. Their net income peaked in 2015 and they have currency issues and onetime expenses costs because litigation.

Some 25% of their market cap is in cash. They have a large order backlog. They have doubled their manufacturing facility and they are no longer cheap. The trailing P/E Ratio is 20, but if you take out cash it is 16.

Hammond Power Solution Inc. (TSX-HPS.A, OTC-HMDPF) is another recommendation. It was recently recommended. They have been in business for around 100 years. They are a transformer manufacturer. Their quarter two 2017 is strong. Their net earnings jumped. They sell to the resources sector. They built up too fast and the resources sector tanked. Now they are coming back. There is an uptick in business and in the resources sector.

They are now a growth company that is tracking at a discount. There will be driving growth going forward. They will have old growth from resources and new growth from renewables.

On my other blog I wrote today about Trigon Metals Inc. (TSX-TM, OTC-PNTZF)... learn more. Next, I will write about Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP)... learn more on Monday, October 23, 2017 around 9 am.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Maximum Canada by Doug Saunders learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Thursday, October 19, 2017

Money Show 2017 - Ryan Irvine

Ryan Irvine spoke in a Friday evening session on "Do it Yourself Stock Investment". Ryan Irvine is the President of Keystone. Part of this session had Aaron Dunn as the speaker. Their site is www.keystocks.com. I went because Keystone has given good talks in past Money Shows. It was a long session so I have broken my report into four parts.

If your portfolio is longer than 10 years, you should have 60% to 70% in equity. At Keystone Financial they stress diversification and quality over quantity. If you have too many stocks you are the market rather than being in the market.

The first lesson is to pick a winning strategy. You need a plan of action to achieve a goal. You need a framework for making investment decisions. You need a mindset for consuming and reacting to information. Too much information and too many strategies (growth, value, momentum, short term, long term) can result in overly complicated investing, information overload and poor investment performance. Clear and understandable strategy can provide a focus.

They recommended Boyd Income Fund (TSX-BYD.UN, OTC-BFGIF) on 2008. It is into Auto Body repairs. It is still a good stock. They recommended Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (TSX-BIP.UN, NYSE-BIP) in 2011 and it is still a buy as a conservative income stock. Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (TSX-AQN, NYSE-AQN) in 2012 and it is still a Buy.

The best stocks have a strong profitability and cash flow generation. They are simple and understandable. They have a clear and achievable growth plan. They also have a reasonable valuation and a multi-year time horizon.

Invest in companies that are generating meaningful revenue and earnings from operations. Companies that cannot do this are speculative and are not an investment. People often confuse investment and speculation. The investment model is a company that earns money and reinvests it back into the business. The speculative model earnings money from selling shares but never has generated money to reinvest in the business.

You often get the speculative model in so call investment stocks. If investing is getting into the next big thing then it is speculative. If it does not have revenue and profitability, it is speculative. Until a company can demonstrate feasibility, it is speculative. It is not a lost opportunity; it is just saving money by not investing.

CARP means growth at reasonable price. Cash flow is king. A stock is a piece of a business.

Focused diversification is 8 to 12 stocks selected from different sectors. From this you would get 1 stock that does poorly, 3 stocks that are average, 2 - 3 that do well, 2 will do very well and 2 will be excellent. You should build you position in a stock over 6 to 18 months.

Keystone does exhaustive research. How can you become a great investor? Learn a little bit on every company in the market. There are no short cuts but just hard work. They search high and low and from A to Z in Sedar. They look at every company 3 times a year.

Pick times to sell. If a stock's valuation increases and the stock becomes too expensive. You might rebalance on profit realization. Sell when a stock dominates your portfolio. Sell if a company has deteriorating fundamentals or is missing targets. If Revenue and earnings are declining and it has a negative outlook. Sell if you lose confidence in management.

You do not want to be overexposed in a few or one stock. Sometimes the fundamentals of a company will change. They can change to losing. Ask yourself is this the same company as I bought? You should cut your losses and move on. It is best to take a loss now than hope the fundamentals will change.

Keystone is paid by clients. They do independent and unbiased research. They focus on income stocks with dividend growth, on small cap stocks and on US research.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Logistec Corp (TSX- LGT.B, OTC-LTKBF)... learn more. Next, I will write about Trigon Metals Inc. (TSX-TM, OTC-PNTZF)... learn more on Friday, October 20, 2017 around 5 pm

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Money Show 2017 - Peter Hodson

Peter Hodson spoke in a Friday afternoon session on "Five Things (times five) Investors need to know: Investors seem to Forget the Basics Always". Peter Hodson is the Editor of Canadian Money Saver Magazine. Their site is www.canadianmoneysaver.ca. I went to this talk because at other Money Shows the Canadian Money Saver has put on great talks. Peter Hodson runs 5iResearch that only provides research. He said he bought his first stock at age 11.

You should never sell a stock just because the stock is down or just because the stock is up.

Dividend growth is more important than dividend yield. High yields can be a problem. When yields get high the stock will probably fall. Some companies do not change their dividends. You can pick a high yield stock if the whole market is down. It is better to buy a stock with a 2% yield that is growing than a 9% yield that is not.

Do not sell too early. Selling too early will never make you rich. You cannot get a 10 bagger if you sell after a stock has just doubled.

High Fees will make you poor. Mutual Fund managers are making too much money. The lower cost of ETFs buying maybe the way you should go. If a Mutual fund has 2.5% fees and the Top 10 stocks are typical, why are you in that Mutual Fund? He had Mutual Funds and his own investments. His own investments were doing better.

Ride your winner stocks. Earning momentum does not change in one quarter. Good news and rising prices attract more investment. Analyst upgrades can be very positive for stocks. Pay attention to what analyst are dong. That is what they are upgrading and what they are downgrading.

Market Capitalization is import we have $100M, 500M and $1B market caps in Canada. When a stock bumps up to a new lever it will attract new investors. Often investors are not interested in a $5 stock, but are when the stock reaches $10. Stocks can shift into a different level or group of investors.

Gambling is not investing.

He does not like share dilutions. He likes companies that never dilute shareholders. Constellation Software Inc. (TSX-CSU) has never issued new shares. For example, you do not want to buy a company that increased their shares 10 times over the past 10 years.

Corporate earnings are the key. Stock prices reflect earrings and earnings trends. Most other news is noise. If earnings are not going up, see why. Canadian companies will struggle because of the rising Canadian dollar.

For interest rates, direction and surprise is the key. Expectation of inflation can change. When rates reverse direction things are changing. Rates are currently going up because of a strong economy.

You should do proper section allocation. Ignore the TSX sector allocation as it has 60% financial and resources. No not invest this way. You do not spend an index. Sectors are based on market cap. There are 11 TSX sectors and you should invest in them all.

Insider buying is more important than insiders selling. There are lots of reasons for insiders to sell. They generally buy because they feel confidence in the company.

Do not focus on quarterly results. The best companies are set up for long term growth that may be at the expense of a quarter or two. However, investors still pay for consistency. 10 days are not import, but 10 years is. You should keep an eye on the longer term.

High debt can destroy a company faster than anything else. Avoid companies with high debt whenever possible. For example, Concordia International Corp (TSX CXR) has debt to cash flow of 2times to 3 times. Avoid companies with debt to cash flow of 4 times to 5 times. It is hard to bankrupt a company with no debt.

When a stock pays its first dividend that is a bullish sign from a small or mid cap. You start small and grow.

He likes insider ownership. Insiders need to own shares not options. You should compare insider's salary to ownership. For example, the insiders at Constellation Software Inc. (TSX-CSU) are committed.

Find companies with a competitive edge. Alpha, Google and Facebook all have a competitive edge. Companies might have patents, a cost advantage or market share. Cineplex Inc. (TSX-CGX) has 70% of the market, so this is good.

Ignore target prices. Credit Suisse once said to sell Netflix at $1.50 and it is now $175. Target prices can cause you to trade. They are highly inaccurate at the best of times. There are too many factors to consider other than a company when setting target prices.

New issues are sold not bought. They often have 5% commissions. You should stick with what you know.

Do not be afraid of high valuations and say that a company at 30 P/E Ratio is too high. Do not be afraid as there may be a reason for it. Big winners are expensive. A great, great company does not go down very much. If you want a stock, just buy it.

Do not get cute. If you want a stock, just buy it. If you want to sell a stock, just sell it. You should make a decision and move on.

Sell your losers first. Generally a stock is down for a reason. Losers move down and winners move up. If you bought a stock at $30 and it is now $5 and you want it to go back to $30. That would take a lot to do. Do not average down. If you are wrong about a stock at $25, you will not be right about it at $10.

Hope is not a winning strategy.

Do not have too many stocks. 30 stocks are enough.

Time is your biggest ally. If markets are at record highs everyone is winning. Today's peak is the next decade's trough. Facebook at $17 in 2012 and now is $171.

After you do fundamental valuation, you should look at technical analysis.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX-TCK.B, NYSE-TCK)... learn more. Next, I will write about Logistec Corp (TSX- LGT.B, OTC-LTKBF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 18, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Money Show 2017 - John Collier

John Collier spoke in the afternoon session on "The Biggest Breakthrough in Desalination". John Collier is from Reliable One Resources. Their site is www.reliableoneresources.com. I went to this talk, not because I was interested in investing in this alternative investment, but because I was interested to hear what they were doing.

There are 8 to 9 different processes to treat water and do desalination. By 2035 some two thirds of people will face water scarcity.

There are earth quakes in Oklahoma from 1978 to the current. There have been a 1,000 times more quakes because water is injected into the ground. Oklahoma's water is contaminated and salty. Water produced from Oklahoma's oil fields used to be injected into the earth. It cost $16 a barrel to dispose of water. With Reliable One Resources they can take out minerals etc and sell them and the water and it costs the oil companies $0.

The company is building a new plan in Pennsylvania. They get revenue from cleaning water. Revenue is from the oils, minerals and water resale. They can desalinize water efficiently. Their solutions are very cost effective. This is a win for everyone.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (TSX-ENF, OTC-EBGUF)... learn more. Next, I will write about HNZ Group Inc. (TSX-HNZ, OTC- CDHPF)... learn more on Friday, October 13 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Money Show 2017 - Sid Mokhtari

Sid Mokhtari spoke in the afternoon session on "Using Systematic Processes for Investment Decisions". Sid Mokhtari is a Chartered Market Technician and Executive Director of CIBC World Markets. Their site is www.CIBC.ca.

Basically he talked about only buying when a stock has momentum. Momentum can drag your stock up. He said with analysts there are momentum guys, value guys and growth guys. He said that using momentum stocks do the best with value next and growth further behind. What he suggests is to buy value stocks when they have momentum.

He likes quantitative guys and their strategies. He looks at 9 monthly trend strategies. He said to be on the right side of a trend and buy with the momentum. He said to buy stocks that break out to the upside. He uses 180 day moving averages. This is a simple way to measure a trend. That is using a moving average.

He says to pick stocks that are trending. This is carpe momentum that is "seize the moment" in Latin. Funds use momentum, value and growth. The best returns are tied to momentum methodology. However, things that go up fast can fall fast also.

CIBC came up with 10 stocks to buy this month and sell at the end of the month. This is First Asset U.S. TrendLeaders Index ETF (CAD Hedged) with a symbol of SID on the TSX. See information this this ETF here. CIBC customers have done well with this system.

You can do different momentum tests and trend tests to pick stocks. Always make stock picking a system and a process.

On my other blog I wrote today about Linamar Corporation (TSX-LNR, OTC-LIMAF)... learn more. Next, I will write about Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (TSX-ENF, OTC-EBGUF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 11, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Thursday, October 5, 2017

Something to Buy October 2017

There is always something to buy in the stock market. On Tuesday, I put out a list of the stocks that I covered and showed what stock might be a good deal based on dividend yield. Now I am trying to categorize what sorts of stocks may be a good deal based on dividend yield.

The advantages to using dividend yield to judge how cheap or expensive a stock is, is that you are not using estimates or old data (like last reported quarter's data). You are using today's stock price and today's dividend yield.

For other testing, like using P/E Ratios and Price/Graham Price Ratios, you use EPS estimates or from the last reported financial quarter. When using P/S Ratios, P/CF Ratios or P/BV Ratios you are using data from the last reported financial quarter.

This system does not work well for old Income Trust companies. These companies had quite high Dividend Yields which will probably never be seen again. So I started a column called VT (for Valid Test) and this applies to checking stock price using dividend yield. If not a valid test I use N to show this. For these stocks, you might be better comparing the current dividend yield to the 5 year median dividend yield.

However, no system is perfect. But if you are interested in buying a stock a list of stocks cheap or reasonable using dividend yield data might be a good place to start.

Categorizing stocks is not as simple as it might seem. Every site you go to has categorized stocks a bit differently. I try to keep this as simple as possible. See Something to Buy October 2017 Spreadsheet to see what stocks are showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr). As in other spreadsheets, you can highlight a line or a number of lines for better viewing.

In the following notes I am only going to list stocks showing as cheap using the historical high dividend yields (P/Hi) and historical median dividend yields (P/Med).

I follow 22 stocks in the Consumer Discretionary category. One of these stocks is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield and that is Newfoundland Capital Corp (TSX-NCC.A). Eight (or 36%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are DHX Media Ltd. (TSX-DHX.A, OTC-DHXMF), Dorel Industries (TSX-DII.B), Goeasy Ltd. (TSX-GSY, OTC-EHMEF), High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF), Leon's Furniture (TSX-LNF); Magna International Inc. (TSX-MG), Newfoundland Capital Corp (TSX-NCC.A) and Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. (TSX-RET.A). Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF) is being removed from cheap by historically median dividend yield.

I follow 12 Consumer Staples stocks. No companies are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Five stocks (or 42%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These are Alimentation Couche-Tard (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF), Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF), Jean Coutu Group Inc. (TSX-PJC.A, OTC-JCOUF), Loblaw Companies (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) and Metro Inc. (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF). Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF) is no longer showing as cheap by historically high dividend yield. .

I only follow two Health Care stocks and both are US stocks. None of these stocks are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. They are both cheap by the historical median dividend yield. The stocks are Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) and Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). This is the same as for last month.

I follow 12 Real Estate stocks. None of these stocks are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks (or 33%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC- ARESF); Granite Real Estate (TSX-GRT.UN, NYSE-GRP.U) and Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF). There is no change from last month.

I follow 8 Bank stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks (or 25%) are showing cheap by the historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS), and CIBC (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM). National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF), Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY) and Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD has been deleted from this list as cheap by historical median dividend yield.

I follow 12 Financial Service stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Eight (or 67%) stocks are showing cheap by the historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC-ACCFF), AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B), Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF), CI Financial (TSX-CIX), Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF), Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS), IGM Financial (TSX-IGM) and Power Corp (TSX-POW). This is the same as last month.

I follow 5 Insurance stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Three stocks (or 60%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Great-West Lifeco Inc. (TSX-GWO); Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC) and Power Financial Corp (TSX-PWF). Sun Life Financial (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF) has been deleted from this list.

I follow 31 Industrial stocks. Because I have so many and Industrial is not very descriptive, I have divided my Industrial stocks into 4 separate categories under Industrial. They are Construction, Industrial, Manufacturing and (Business) Services.

I have 6 Construction stocks. None are cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks or 33% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are and SNC-Lavalin (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF) and Stantec Inc. (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN). There is no change from last month.

I have 3 stocks I have left with the sub-index of Industrial. None are cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks or 67% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF), and Russel Metals (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). There is no change from last month.

I have 7 Manufacturing stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks or 57% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF), Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (TSX-HPS.A, OTC-HMDPF), Intertape Polymer Group Inc. (TSX-ITP, OTC-ITPOF) and PFB Corp (TSX-PFB, OTC-PFBOF). There is no change from last month.

I have 15 Services stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks or 27% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI), Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF), Transcontinental Inc. (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF) and Wajax Corp (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF). Wajax Corp (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF) and been added to this list.

I follow 8 Material stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. One stock or 14% is showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield and that stock is Methanex Corp (TSX-MX, NASDAQ-MEOH). This is the same as for last month.

I follow 10 Energy stocks. No stock is showing as cheap by the historical high dividend yield. There are four stocks (or 40%) showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ), Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF); Mullen Group (TSX-MTL, OTC-MLLGF) and Suncor Energy (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF) is no longer showing as cheap by the historical high dividend yield. Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE) is no longer showing as cheap by the historical median dividend yield.

I follow 8 Tech stocks. None are showing as cheap by historical high dividend yield. Five stocks (or 63%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF) Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF), Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF), MacDonald Dettwiler & Assoc. (TSX-MDA, OTC-MDDWF), and Sylogist Ltd (TSXV-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF). There is no change from last month.

I follow 8 of the Infrastructure type utility companies. None are showing as cheap by historical high dividend yield. Two stocks (or 25%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF) and Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB). This is the same as last month.

I follow 12 of the Power type utility companies. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stock (or 33%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. Those stocks are Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (TSX-AQN, NYSE-AQN), ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF), Canadian Utilities Ltd (TSX-CU, OTC-CDUAF) and Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRAF). Canadian Utilities Ltd (TSX-CU, OTC-CDUAF has been added.

I follow 4 of the Telecom Service type utility companies. No stock is showing cheap by the historical high dividend yield. Four stocks (or 100%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are BCE (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE), Quarterhaill Inc. (TSX-QTRH, NASDAQ-QTRH), Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR) and Telus Corp (TSX-T, NYSE-TU). There is no change from last month.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Le Chateau Inc. (TSX-CTU.A, OTC-LCUAF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be K-Bro Linen Inc. (TSX-KBL, OTC-KBRLF)... learn more on Friday, October 06 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk . The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Suzanne's Upcoming Art Exhibit

Suzanne Gorenflo has a picture in the upcoming Artists' Network show at the Blue Crow Gallery
Exhibition Dates: October 4, 2017 to October 30, 2017
Theme is: Don't Sweat the Small Stuff

Place: Blue Crow Gallery
1610 Gerrard Street East (Near Coxwell)

Painting: Kensington Market Grande Dame 20 Kensington Avenue


Dividend Stocks October 2017

First I want to point out that not all of the stocks I follow are great investments. I follow a diverse selection of stocks. There are some that I would never invest in personally. I follow a number of resource stocks even though I personally have little invested in this area. I follow what I find interesting and with resource stocks, I think it is important for Canadians to know what is happening in the resource area. On the other hand I do follow of good number of great dividend growth stocks.

The theory is that you should use the dividend yield to see if a dividend stock is selling at a stock price that is relatively cheap. A stock price is considered cheap if it is selling at a dividend yield higher than the historical high yield or higher than the historical average yield or historical median yield. See my spreadsheet at dividend growth stocks that I just updated for October 2017.

On this list,
  • I have 1 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
  • I have 36 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield
  • I have 63 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical median dividend yield and
  • 59 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.
When I did my list last list in September 2017,
  • I have 3 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
  • I have 38 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield
  • I have 67 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical median dividend yield and
  • 63 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.
When I did my list in January 2014,
  • I had 9 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
  • I had 45 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield and
  • 39 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.
If you had one share of each stock, total dividends last month would be $157.04. This month dividends would be $158.12. (Change in dividends due to US/CDN currency change.) Of the stock that I follow 0 stocks has raised their dividends since last month.

Also, of the stocks that I follow, 0 stocks decreased or suspended their dividends.

Most of my stocks started out as Dividend Payers. Currently 13 stocks are not paying any dividends and this would be some 10.3% of the stocks that I follow. Three of these stocks never had dividends, so 8.39% of the stocks I follow have suspended their dividends. The three stocks that never paid dividends are Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP0, Blackberry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY) and Trigon Metals Inc. (TSX-TM, OTC-PNTZF).

I am showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr). See these fields on the right side of the file. You can highlight a particular stock using your cursor to highlight the appropriate line.

There are always some stocks to buy because they are priced reasonably. There are always stocks to currently avoid because they are overpriced. Looking at dividend growth stocks that are selling at stock prices that give them a dividend yield above the historical median dividend yield are probably the best bet.

The stocks that are selling at prices that give them a dividend yield above the historical high yield could be good stocks to buy. However, these stocks may be selling so cheap because of current troubles, especially financial troubles and should be treated with caution. Do not forget that I have all the stocks I follow on this spreadsheet and some are much better investments than others.

You should always investigate a stock before you buy. Sometimes different stocks in certain sectors are just out of favour or the stock market is just in one of its declines. However, a stock may be relatively cheap because it has problems. That is why you should always investigate a stock before buying.

Looking at stock this way is equivalent to a stock filter. A main problem I know of is for the old income trusts. These companies have generally lowered their dividend yields forever and they will probably never get back to the old dividend yield highs they made as an income trust company. For these stocks, you might be better comparing the current dividend yield to the 5 year median dividend yield. I also started a column called VT (for Valid Test) and this applies to checking stock price using dividend yield. If not a valid test I use N to show this.

Also, on some stocks I have a lot more information years in my spreadsheets than for other stocks. So, finding a stock on the list as "cheap" is only the first step in finding a stock to buy. This is the same with any other sort of stock filters that you can use.

The last thing to remember is that I have entering figures into a spreadsheet. I could put them in incorrectly, I can transpose figures and I can misread figures. This is another great reason why you should check a stock out before investing. As this is just a filter, it works better on some stocks than on others.

See my entry on my methodology in establishing the historical dividend yield highs and lows for the stocks that I cover. I have an entry on my introduction to Dividend Growth. You might want to look at my original entry on Dividend Growth Stocks. I have also written about why I like Dividend Growth companies.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Granite REIT (TSX-GRT.UN, NYSE-GRP.U)... learn more. Next, I will write about Le Chateau Inc. (TSX-CTU.A, OTC-LCUAF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 4, 2017 around 5 pm

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram with #walktoronto.