Thursday, September 27, 2018

Money Show 2018 – Steven Hawkins

Steven Hawkins spoke in the opening remarks. His talk was called “Canadian ETF Outlook”. He is the President and co-CEO of Horizons ETSs. His site is here.

What is new in ETFs is Exchange Traded Bonds and Zero Cost ETFs. Horizons is the first and larges manager of ETFs in Canada. They efficiently track indices, currencies, commodities, and global themes. They have tactical ETFs designed for sophisticated investors (for short term investing). Horizons has 10.7B in Assets under Management (AUM).

There is global ETF growth and it is a 5T industry. There has been a big inflow into Canadian ETFs over the past 5 years. The ETFs are destroying Mutual Funds. ETFs are more diversified and cheaper. ETFs are innovated and the industry is maturing and growing. They are providing exciting new ETFs. There has been growth in ETF providers from 4 to 30 in Canada with now over 700 ETFs.

Canadians have been paying the highest fees in the world for Mutual Funds. The key ETF trends is to reduce Management Fees. The news trend is to zero fees for ETFs. These ETFs invest in other ETFs that have fees. Fees in Canada is 0.35% and in US fees are 0.10%. Canadian banks now have active ETFs with lower fees than for Mutual Funds.

A current trend is to thematic investing into such things are Robotics, Blockchains, AI, Ethical, Diversity and Marijuana. Current tend is into actively managed ETFs.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Great-West Lifeco Inc. (TSX-GWO, OTC-GWLIF) ... learn more. Next, I will write about Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF) ... learn more on Friday, September 28, 2018 around 5 pm

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Money Show 2018 - Gordon Pape

Gordon Pape spoke in the opening remarks. His talk was called “The Crystal Ball: Where now for the Markets”. He is the editor and publisher of two newsletters of The Internet Wealth Builder and the Income Investor. His site is here.

Gordon Pape is a renowned investor and best-selling author. He will provide an overview of what has happened in the market in 2018 and what lies ahead for the test of the year and into 2019. That is where we have been and where we are going.

No one can predict where the market is going. There are just too many variables. The markets can change overnight. They can be changed by a simple twit. No one has seen such a wild card as Mr. Trump. He can move markets but this may not reflect where they will go over the longer term.

Mr. Trump is an important factor. People say he is unpredictable, but he is not. If you look at what Trump said in the 2016 election. The goals and principles he laid out he has been doing. We do not need to agree with him or what he is writing, but he has been consistent in trying to do what he set out to do in running for president.

What is unpredictable is how investors are going to react to what he does. We need to consider this. So far, the US market have been positive. It is near a record for the S&P500. The S&P500 has been going straight up since the bottom of 2009. There were some drops, but not of 20%.

The picture of the TSX is not as pretty. We are up over the past 10 years but we do not have a long run up. There has been a couple of bear markets where it dropped 20%. The TSX has really struggles and it will continue to struggle.

Why is Wall Street so much more successful than Bay Street? Most of the bull market happened under Obama. His policies and the Fed policies strengthen the S&P500. They prevented the long recession from going into a depression. Trump can take credit for some of the policies that extended the bull run. His tax refund, his deregulation and his protectionism has been beneficial to the US economy.

The tax changes boosted corporate profits and that has had a positive effect. The deregulation has encouraged more business investments. Both of these have contributed to the 4.1% growth in the second quarter. This is the best that the US has experienced in many years. The moves by Mr. Trump has continued the boon started by Obama.

Trumps trade policies (protectionism) are controversial and may be contributing to the US boom. There is a lot of uncertainty and US businesses are not looking to other countries. The Fraser Institute says investment in Canada is the lowest in 40 years. People are investing in the US because they do have access to the US’s big and booming market.

Companies are more hesitant to invest in Canada, Mexico, China or anywhere outside the US market. This will continue until things simmer down. But where does that leave us? In the short term, there is no immediate change. The US growth will remain solid in the third quarter. Corporate earnings will show impressive gains. Job creating will remain on track. There is no sign of a recession on the horizon. The result is that US stocks will move higher.

We are climbing a wall of worry with interest rates going up, higher personal debt ($4T non-mortgage), labor shortages (unfilled jobs at the end of May was 6.6M), protectionism and rising inflation (in goods and wages). It is important to consider that every rate increase will put pressure on consumers and business as they have high debt.

Corporate debt is at 6.3T and the US government deficit will top $1T. (By the way the deficit is what is added to the debt each year.) Lots of Trillions exposed to rising interest rates and as rate rise they are going to be problems down the road.

The US is not pulling in the workers that are needed. There is a lack of qualified employees. Trump is creating more and more jobs. The economy is already begging for more skilled workers than available. The 6.6M jobs unfilled are from burger flippers to software engineers. This is only going to get worse as the US is anti-immigration so they will not be importing people to fill these positions. This will lead to higher prices for consumers and labor shortages will raise wages.

Protectionism is currently promoting investment in the US. In the long run this will cause higher prices for consumers. This will only get worse if Trump continues to impose tariffs on China and NAFTA falls apart.

The bull market is not over. However, it is best to move to a more neutral position, but not all cash. Get some fixed income. He does not believe in going all cash at any time. It is best to favour US stock over Canadian stock. Avoid long term bonds. Raise some cash on a gradual basis. Have money in your RIF because of future problems. Take advantage of bargains after the bull market ends.

Canada is in a rough spot. This is not just because of Trump. We have a lousy energy policy. We cannot take advantage of the tremendous natural resources in Alberta. We cannot get our resources to market. This is very negative for the Canadian market.

The need to raise cash needs to be balanced again the tax consequences of selling stocks. Think about what will happen if we had a pull back like happened in 2008. Do changes gradually. Make sure to take advantage of any pull back. There could be such an opportunity in 18 to 24 months.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Trican Well Service Ltd (TSX-TCW, OTC-TOLWF) ... learn more. Next, I will write about Great-West Lifeco Inc. (TSX-GWO, OTC-GWLIF) ... learn more on Wednesday, September 26, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Toronto Money Show

I spent Friday and Saturday last week at the Toronto Money Show at the Toronto Convention Center on Front Street.

The first thing that I noticed is that there was an awful lot more people at this money show than at previous money shows. It reminded me of the Financial Form Show (the precursor to the Money Show) that occurred prior to the 2000 Bear Market. That show seemed to the largest attendance to date for the Financial Forum. The next year the attendance drop dramatically and the following year the show was moved to the north convention centre from the south one, which is a larger spot.

The other thing that was noticeable was that there were a lot of session on both marijuana stocks and ETFs. These are both very popular topics at the moment. It seems everyone is talking about making money on marijuana stocks. ETFs are very popular as a passive investment and lots of unsophisticated investors are into these. It would seem that passive investment is popular and strong. I should point out that I am neither into marijuana stocks nor ETFs. I tend not to invest in the next big thing.

My disappointment was I did not come out of this show with at least one new stock to investigate. Other years I would pick up several stocks that were recommended by different speakers that I would be interested in investigating. This year there was not stock mentioned that I did not already know about.

Another thing to mention is that it came up at the show that the S&P TSX has a new category of Telecommunications Services. This index has just 3 stocks in it of BCE Inc. (TSX-BCE). Rogers Communications Inc. (TSX-RCI.B) and TELUS Corporation (TSX-T). It was said that this category now includes Telcom Services, Media, and Entertainment. I cannot google anything to verify this, but the description is true for US markets.

So, the categories now for the TSX are:

Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Health Care

Industrials
Information Technology
Materials
Real Estate
Telecommunication Services
Utilities

The last thing I wanted to mention was that Money Sense Magazine again put on a roster of speakers on Saturday. Although I did not attend any of these sessions, I looked into them other years and they were great for unsophisticated investors.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Telus Corp. (TSX-T, NYSE-TU) ... learn more. Next, I will write about Wajax Corp. (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF) ... learn more on Friday, September 21, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Efficient Markets Hypothesis

Efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) says that stocks always trade at a fair value as all the current information is reflected in the price. There is a fairly good article on this at Investopedia. There is also an article on Wikipedia. You can find scholarly articles also on the interest by googling it.

I think that Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) is a myth. I do not believe that markets get prices right. If EMH was correct we would not get bubbles or bear markets. The market is made up of people, and people are emotional. Stocks are often under or overvalued. For example, if a company cuts its dividends, dividend investors can get mad and the stock drops more than it should on valuation alone.

My definition of a bear market is when most people worry about the same problem at the same time. The problem could have been around for many months, but all of a sudden, people worry. A bubble occurs because most people get excited about some aspect of the future. Of course, bubble can occur for other reasons as assets can bubble because of low interest rates, but that is an entirely different subject.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC-ACCFF) ... learn more. Next, I will write about Telus Corp. (TSX-T, NYSE-TU) ... learn more on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Thursday, September 13, 2018

Stock Trading Styles

This is a very interesting article on Visual Capitalist. It talks about 4 styles of stock trading of Position Trading, Swing Trading, Day Trading and Scalp Trading. I am definitely in the first category, but do a bit of the second. I would not fit the third or fourth categories at all.

My holding period for stocks can be one year (for resource and tech stocks) to forever for the stocks that are the mainstay of my portfolio. I still have stocks I bought in the 1980’s. However, for a lot of stocks it seems that you cannot hold them forever. Great stocks can go bad. Stocks can be bought out. Companies can also go bankrupt. Others are sold because they are a disappointment and you believe that they were going nowhere.

An example for me of a great stock going bad would be Bombardier. At the beginning when I held this stock it just went up and split then went up and split and went up and split. It seemed to have lost its way in 2000 and has never really recovered.

One of my earliest stocks was Labatt’s and this was bought out by Belgian brewer Interbrew in 1995. I bought this stock in 1983 and was forced to sell in 1995. I made a total return of 11.81% per year with 6.68% per year from capital gains and 5.13% per year from dividends.

I bought a small trust company called Financial Trust in 1988 because of an article I read in a newspaper about it. I knew it was a bit risky, but I did not think it would go bankrupt. However, it did go bankrupt before the year was out.

One stock that disappointed me was Hees International which I bought in 1987 and sold in 1999 having held it for just over 11 years. I made a total return on this stock of 3.40% per year with a capital loss of 1.18% per year and dividends of 4.58% per year. Hees International became Edper Group, then EdperBrascan Corporation, then Brascan Corporation and now it is Brookfield Asset Management Inc. I sold because I thought the stock was going nowhere.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Smart REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF) ... learn more. Next, I will write about Just Energy Group Inc. (TSX-JE, NYSE-JE) ... learn more on Friday, September 14, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Aurora Village


A week ago, I went up to Yellowknife to see the northern lights and I was not disappointed. We booked our trip though Aurora Village with their hassle-free arrangement and it was just that. We were also lucky because we saw the lights all three nights that we went to the Aurora Village which is a 30 minute bus ride from Yellowknife.

We did not want to weather temperatures of 40 below, so we took advantage of this small window of opportunity at the end of summer to see the Aurora Borealis. Only on our return, did we fully appreciate what a gamble we had taken and how lucky we were to have seen the lights three nights in a row.

The interesting thing was we were the only Canadians on the tour. All the rest of the people were from China or Japan and all the guides were bilingual. Our guides were great. One was from Australia and she had lived in Japan so she spoke English and Japanese. Our other guide was an American of Japanese heritage so he also spoke English and Japanese. Apparently, Canadians go on this trip in the winter time.

The Aurora Village was great. We were allocated a tee pee in this village and it was toasty warm inside. There were portable chairs and revolving two seater chairs set up specifically to enhance the viewing experience. There are some pictures on their site.

None of us had a great camera so we were no able to take photos of the northern lights or aurora borealis. When we were out dinning the second night we meet a Chinese family in the restaurant and they kindly sent us some of their photos.

The Aurora Village also had some day trips. They took us on a city tour which included the highlights of the old and new town areas. We saw the Legislature and their modern museum. We went on a boat ride on Slave. The lake had some colourful house boats. We also went to the Diamond Factory in Yellowknife. They had a short film and they talked to us. We also went for dinner one night at the Aurora Village. The meal was great. There was either Bison or local fish. I had the Bison and it was delicious.

We were in Yellowknife for 3 nights in a Day’s Inn in downtown Yellowknife. It was a nice hotel with a Filipino restaurant. There are quite a few Filipinos in Yellowknife. We found a few interesting restaurants in the city. The city was very spread out and most building were 3 to 5 stories tall. There were lots of residential areas also. We only saw one building that had 10 stories.

Melissa Myers, Travel Manager at Flight Centre at Yonge and King booked our trip. She did a great job.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF) ... learn more. Next, I will write about Smart REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF) ... learn more on Wednesday, September 12, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures

Thursday, September 6, 2018

Something to Buy September 2018

There is always something to buy in the stock market. On Tuesday, I put out a list of the stocks that I covered and showed what stock might be a good deal based on dividend yield. Now I am trying to categorize what sorts of stocks may be a good deal based on dividend yield.

The advantages to using dividend yield to judge how cheap or expensive a stock is, is that you are not using estimates or old data (like last reported quarter's data). You are using today's stock price and today's dividend yield.

For other testing, like using P/E Ratios and Price/Graham Price Ratios, you use EPS estimates or from the last reported financial quarter. When using P/S Ratios, P/CF Ratios or P/BV Ratios you are using data from the last reported financial quarter.

This system does not work well for old Income Trust companies. These companies had quite high Dividend Yields which will probably never be seen again. So, I started a column called VT (for Valid Test) and this applies to checking stock price using dividend yield. If it is not a valid test I use N to show this. For these stocks, you might be better comparing the current dividend yield to the 5 year median dividend yield.

However, no system is perfect. But if you are interested in buying a stock a list of stocks cheap or reasonable using dividend yield data might be a good place to start.

Categorizing stocks is not as simple as it might seem. Every site you go to has categorized stocks a bit differently. I try to keep this as simple as possible. See Something to Buy September 2018 Spreadsheet to see what stocks are showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr). As in other spreadsheets, you can highlight a line or a number of lines for better viewing.

In the following notes I am only going to list stocks showing as cheap using the historical high dividend yields (P/Hi) and historical median dividend yields (P/Med).

I follow 22 stocks in the Consumer Discretionary category. Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A) has been added to this group. Four of these stocks (18%) are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield and they are DHX Media Ltd. (TSX-DHX, OTC-DHXMF), High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF), Newfoundland Capital Corp (TSX-NCC.A) and Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A). Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A) has been added to this list.

Eight (or 36%) of Consumer Discretionary are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF), DHX Media Ltd. (TSX-DHX.A, OTC-DHXMF), High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF), Leon's Furniture (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF), Newfoundland Capital Corp (TSX-NCC.A), Pizza Pizza Royalty Corp (TSX-PZA, OTC-PZRIF), Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. (TSX-RET.A, OTC-RTMAF) and Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A). Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A) has been added to this list.

I follow 11 Consumer Staples stocks. No companies are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Six stocks (or 55%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These are AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. (TSX-AGT, OTC-AGXXF), Alimentation Couche-Tard (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF), Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF), Loblaw Companies (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF), Metro Inc. (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF) and Saputo Inc. (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF). Saputo Inc. (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF) has been added to this list.

I only follow three Health Care stocks. None of these stocks are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two or 67% are cheap by the historical median dividend yield. The stocks are Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) and Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). There is no change from last month.

I follow 10 Real Estate stocks. None of these stocks is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. This is the same as for last month.

Five stocks (or 50%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC- ARESF), Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF), Granite Real Estate (TSX-GRT.UN, NYSE-GRP.U), H & R REIT (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF) and Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF). There is no change from last month.

I follow 8 Bank stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks (or 25%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS), and CIBC (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM). There is not change from last month.

I follow 14 Financial Service stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Seven (or 57%) stocks are showing cheap by the historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC-ACCFF), AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF), Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF), Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF), Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF), IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) and Power Corp (TSX-POW, OTC-PWCDF). CI Financial (TSX-CIX, OTC-CIFAF) has been removed from this list.

I follow 6 Insurance stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Six stocks (or 100%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Great-West Lifeco Inc. (TSX-GWO, OTC-GWLIF), Industrial Alliance Ins. and Fin. (TSX-IAG, OTC-IDLLF), Intact Financial Corp. (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF), Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC), Power Financial Corp (TSX-PWF, OTC-POFNF) and Sun Life Financial (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF). There is no change from last month.

I follow 32 Industrial stocks. Because I have so many and Industrial is not very descriptive, I have divided my Industrial stocks into 4 separate categories under Industrial. They are Construction, Industrial, Manufacturing and (Business) Services.

I have 6 Construction stocks. None are cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks or 33% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are SNC-Lavalin (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF) and Stantec Inc. (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN). There is no change from last month.

I have 3 stocks I have left with the sub-index of Industrial. None are cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks or 67% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF), and Russel Metals (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). There is no change from last month.

I have 7 Manufacturing stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Three stocks or 43% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF), Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (TSX-HPS.A, OTC-HMDPF), and PFB Corp (TSX-PFB, OTC-PFBOF). There is no change from last month.

I follow 16 Services stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks or 13% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF), and Transcontinental Inc. (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF). Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) has been removed from this list.

I follow 8 Material stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. One stock or 13% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. That stock is Hardwoods Distribution Inc. (TSX-HDI, OTC-HDIUF). This last list has not changed from last month.

I follow 10 Energy stocks. One stock or 10% are showing as cheap by the historical high dividend yield. It is Mullen Group (TSX-MTL, OTC-MLLGF). Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF) has been removed from this list.

There are four stocks (or 40%) showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ), Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE), Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF), and Mullen Group (TSX-MTL, OTC-MLLGF). There is no change from last month

I follow 8 Tech stocks. One is showing as cheap by historical high dividend yield and that is Maxar Technologies Ltd (TSX-MAXR-NYSE-MAXR).

Four stocks (or 50%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF) Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF), Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF) and Maxar Technologies Ltd (TSX-MAXR-NYSE-MAXR). There is no change from last month.

I follow 7 of the Infrastructure type utility companies. None are showing as cheap by historical high dividend yield. Three stocks (or 43%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF), Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB), and TransCanada Corp (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP). There is no change from last month.

I follow 12 of the Power type utility companies. Only ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF) is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. This has not changed from last month.

Five stocks (or 42%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. Those stocks are ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF), Canadian Utilities Ltd (TSX-CU, OTC-CDUAF) and Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRAF), Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS, OTC-FRTSF) and Just Energy Group Inc. (TSX-JE, NYSE-JE). This has not changed from last month.

I follow 4 of the Telecom Service type utility companies. No stocks are showing as cheap by historically high dividend yield. Three stocks (or 75%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are BCE (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE), Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR) and Telus Corp (TSX-T, NYSE-TU). There is no change from last month

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Exchange Income Corp. (TSX-EIF, OTC-EIFZF) ... learn more. Next, I will write about ATCO Ltd. (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF) ... learn more on Friday, September 7, 2018 around 5 pm..

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk . The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Dividend Stocks September 2018

First, I want to point out that not all of the stocks I follow are great investments. I follow a diverse selection of stocks. There are some that I would never invest in personally. I follow a number of resource stocks even though I personally have little invested in this area. I follow what I find interesting and with resource stocks, I think it is important for Canadians to know what is happening in the resource area. On the other hand, I do follow of good number of great dividend growth stocks.

The theory is that you should use the dividend yield to see if a dividend stock is selling at a stock price that is relatively cheap. A stock price is considered cheap if it is selling at a dividend yield higher than the historical high yield or higher than the historical average yield or historical median yield. See my spreadsheet at dividend growth stocks that I just updated for September 2018. On this list,
  • I have 7 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
  • I have 43 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield
  • I have 63 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical median dividend yield and
  • 71 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.
When I did my list last list in August 2018,
  • I have 6 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
  • I have 35 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield
  • I have 65 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical median dividend yield and
  • 67 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.
When I did my list in January 2014,
  • I had 9 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
  • I had 45 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield and
  • 39 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.
If you had one share of each stock, total dividends last month would be $170.28. This month dividends would be $170.01 which is a reset figure after the changes noted below. Of the stock that I follow 11 stocks has raised their dividends since last month including HPLS Therapeutics which has restarted it dividend payment. This is a good sign

Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS)
CIBC (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM)
Hardwoods Distribution Inc. (TSX-HDI, OTC-HDIUF)
HLS Therapeutics Inc (TSX-HLS) restarted
Keyera Corp (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF)

Leon's Furniture (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF)
Logistec Corp (TS-LGT.B, OTC-LTKBF)
Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF)
Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc. (TSX-RBA, NYSE-RBA)
Royal Bank (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY)

Saputo Inc. (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF)

Also, of the stocks that I follow, 1 stock decreased or suspended their dividends. That stock is CI Financial (TSX-CIX, OTC-CIFAF0) which has reduced their dividends to $0.72 and to a quarterly payment schedule from $1.41 and a month payment schedule. They say they are reallocating their resources and will use the extra money to buy back shares.

Most of my stocks started out as Dividend Payers. Currently 13 stocks are not paying any dividends and this would be some 8.39% of the stocks that I follow. Four of these stocks never had dividends, so 5.81% of the stocks I follow have suspended their dividends. The three stocks that never paid dividends are Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP0, Blackberry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY) and Trigon Metals Inc. (TSX-TM, OTC-PNTZF).

I am showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr). See these fields on the right side of the file. You can highlight a particular stock using your cursor to highlight the appropriate line.

There are always some stocks to buy because they are priced reasonably. There are always stocks to currently avoid because they are overpriced. Looking at dividend growth stocks that are selling at stock prices that give them a dividend yield above the historical median dividend yield are probably the best bet.

The stocks that are selling at prices that give them a dividend yield above the historical high yield could be good stocks to buy. However, these stocks may be selling so cheap because of current troubles, especially financial troubles and should be treated with caution. Do not forget that I have all the stocks I follow on this spreadsheet and some are much better investments than others.

You should always investigate a stock before you buy. Sometimes different stocks in certain sectors are just out of favour or the stock market is just in one of its declines. However, a stock may be relatively cheap because it has problems. That is why you should always investigate a stock before buying.

Looking at stock this way is equivalent to a stock filter. A main problem I know of is for the old income trusts. These companies have generally lowered their dividend yields forever and they will probably never get back to the old dividend yield highs they made as an income trust company. For these stocks, you might be better comparing the current dividend yield to the 5 year median dividend yield. I also started a column called VT (for Valid Test) and this applies to checking stock price using dividend yield. If it is not a valid test I use N to show this.

Also, on some stocks I have a lot more information years in my spreadsheets than for other stocks. So, finding a stock on the list as "cheap" is only the first step in finding a stock to buy. This is the same with any other sort of stock filters that you can use.

The last thing to remember is that I have entering figures into a spreadsheet. I could put them in incorrectly, I can transpose figures and I can misread figures. This is another great reason why you should check a stock out before investing. As this is just a filter, it works better on some stocks than on others.

See my entry on my methodology in establishing the historical dividend yield highs and lows for the stocks that I cover. I have an entry on my introduction to Dividend Growth. You might want to look at my original entry on Dividend Growth Stocks. I have also written about why I like Dividend Growth companies.

On my other blog I wrote today about Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF) ... learn more. Next, I will write about Exchange Income Corp. (TSX-EIF, OTC-EIFZF) ... learn more on Wednesday, September 5, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram with #walktoronto.