Warren MacKenzie's talk was entitled "Practical Advice for Long Term Investing". Warren MacKenzie is a Stewardship Counsellor with Highview Financial.
To Warren MacKenzie, long term is more than 10 years. If you need money in 5 years you should not be investing it. Long Term investing should be boring.
There is lots of doom and gloom at the money show. We will have a bear market at some point in the future. However, if you need more money what you should do is 1) work longer, 2) spend less or 3) take on more volatility. You get higher returns with higher volatility.
Your investing should be goal based. Take as much risk as you need to but no more. You should not manager returns, but you should manage risk. Investing has not only stock market risk, but emotional risk. There is also a government risk. An example of government risk is the income trust rules change by the government.
It is best to be diversified. You should invest in different asset classes. You need the correct asset risk for you goals.
If investing is a hobby, put some money aside to play with. You cannot expect to be better at all investment categories, so sometimes you would be better off with ETFs. Always do quarterly reviews of your investments.
Some advisors come under the suitability standard. An example is the banks. If you ask for Canadian Stocks and they give you a Mutual Fund with Canadian Stocks and it is the worse one with high trailer fees, this is legal. What you want is an advisor that is held to a fiduciary standard. Get it in writing that they follow this standard.
You need to auto rebalance your portfolio. This will force you to do what is right. Do not have a complicated portfolio when you are 90. Now is the time to simplify your portfolio. You do not want to wait and be too late.
The most important things about fees should be that you are getting value for your fees. A tiny fee is not ok if you are not getting value. Do not focus too much on fees. It is important to benchmark your portfolio. His benchmark is ETF portfolios.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF)... learn more on Friday, October 26, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Money Show 2016 - Scott Hanson
Scott Hanson 's talk was entitled "Investing Long-Term Dividend and GARP in Canada and US" Scott Hanson is an Investment Advisor with CIBC Wood Gundy.
Scott Hanson talks about growth at a reasonable price that is GARP. The difference between successful and unsuccessful investing is buy and hold. From 1928 to 2015 DJIA had an 11.4% return per year. Bonds had a 5.2% return and MM Funds had a 3.5% return. So a $10,000 investment with DJIA grows to 120M, with bonds to $823,000 to MMF to $200,000.
Between 1995 and 2015, stocks had a 10% a year return. The average investor had a 2.5% return. Problem is noise. The media is your worst enemy, so is short term thinking. We have a wealth of information, but a poverty of attention. We are euphoric at the top of the market and depressed at the bottom. The best time to invest is at the bottom of the market and the worse time is with euphoria.
When the P/E is high or going up, the rate of return is going down. If the current P/E is high, the rate of return over the next 10 years will be low. If the current P/E is low, the rate of return over the next 10 years will be good. However, if interest rates stay low, then P/E ratios will probably stay high.
For example, Microsoft in 1999 at $60 had a peak P/E Ratio of 55. With growth of 8% for the company, the stock stayed flat for a very long time. Stocks do tend to track growth. However, do not buy good companies at a high price.
Investment sentiment is currently conservative. When stocks are on sale, no one wants to buy. The performance after a stock market fall is a 20% return. The true investor likes volatility. They want to buy great investments at the right price.
Greed can push people to buy high and fear can push people to sell low. This is why the typical investor losses. The Dividend Aristocrats are the stocks to buy. You want companies with consistent growth in earnings and dividends. Stocks with high yields and low payouts do the best. Low yields and high payouts do the worse.
You should go for growth at a reasonable price. What is good is superior earnings growth at a reasonable price. Look at ETFs that track the S&P 5900 dividend aristocrats. For Canada there is a smaller pool of dividend aristocrat stock. According to Morningstar from 1985 to 2016 buying dividend aristocrats had a 13.8% return against the S&P return of 8.1%.
One test to use is a stock should growth $1 of market values for every $1 of earnings. Buy dividend aristocrats at a reasonable price and add to your portfolio when stocks show weakness.
Company #1 is a label and packaging company. From 2009 to Q2 of 2016 the company accumulated $34.54 in earnings and the market value grew by $206.43. The Market Value grew by $6.00 for every $1.00 of earnings. This stock passes this test absolutely.
Company #2 is a convenience store. From 2009 to Q2 of 2016 it had $17.85 of earnings and market value grew by $50.67 or by $2.93 for every $1.00 of earnings. This company passes the test.
Company #3 is a leading IT company has $15.58 in earnings and the market value grew by $40.85. It has $2.93 for every $1.00 for earnings and so passes the test.
Company #4 is a Fertilizer company had $15.95 in earnings and market value went down by $18.20, so it had a decline in market value of $1.14 for every $1.00 of earnings. This does not pass the test.
Consider doing a "dollar cost" averaging with your dividend aristocrat quarterly dividends. The compounding is magical. You have the company reinvesting earnings plus dividend reinvesting. Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe. Consider volatility as a bonus when investing in Dividend Aristocrat stocks. Buy companies that create $1.00 of market value for each $1.00 of earnings.
Today, the P/E is not cheap, but it is not expensive either. Earnings yields are a lot higher than the 10 year treasury bonds. Stocks appear to be cheaper relative to bonds.
One way of investing is to buy preferred shares, if you really do not want to be in the market. Fixed reset preferred shares have a built in rate hedge.
Often you do not get $1.00 of market value for $1.00 of earnings because of debt. You do not want companies that have a high debt load. A good way to judge the P/E of a company is to look at the historical P/E Ratios for a company.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Scott Hanson talks about growth at a reasonable price that is GARP. The difference between successful and unsuccessful investing is buy and hold. From 1928 to 2015 DJIA had an 11.4% return per year. Bonds had a 5.2% return and MM Funds had a 3.5% return. So a $10,000 investment with DJIA grows to 120M, with bonds to $823,000 to MMF to $200,000.
Between 1995 and 2015, stocks had a 10% a year return. The average investor had a 2.5% return. Problem is noise. The media is your worst enemy, so is short term thinking. We have a wealth of information, but a poverty of attention. We are euphoric at the top of the market and depressed at the bottom. The best time to invest is at the bottom of the market and the worse time is with euphoria.
When the P/E is high or going up, the rate of return is going down. If the current P/E is high, the rate of return over the next 10 years will be low. If the current P/E is low, the rate of return over the next 10 years will be good. However, if interest rates stay low, then P/E ratios will probably stay high.
For example, Microsoft in 1999 at $60 had a peak P/E Ratio of 55. With growth of 8% for the company, the stock stayed flat for a very long time. Stocks do tend to track growth. However, do not buy good companies at a high price.
Investment sentiment is currently conservative. When stocks are on sale, no one wants to buy. The performance after a stock market fall is a 20% return. The true investor likes volatility. They want to buy great investments at the right price.
Greed can push people to buy high and fear can push people to sell low. This is why the typical investor losses. The Dividend Aristocrats are the stocks to buy. You want companies with consistent growth in earnings and dividends. Stocks with high yields and low payouts do the best. Low yields and high payouts do the worse.
You should go for growth at a reasonable price. What is good is superior earnings growth at a reasonable price. Look at ETFs that track the S&P 5900 dividend aristocrats. For Canada there is a smaller pool of dividend aristocrat stock. According to Morningstar from 1985 to 2016 buying dividend aristocrats had a 13.8% return against the S&P return of 8.1%.
One test to use is a stock should growth $1 of market values for every $1 of earnings. Buy dividend aristocrats at a reasonable price and add to your portfolio when stocks show weakness.
Company #1 is a label and packaging company. From 2009 to Q2 of 2016 the company accumulated $34.54 in earnings and the market value grew by $206.43. The Market Value grew by $6.00 for every $1.00 of earnings. This stock passes this test absolutely.
Company #2 is a convenience store. From 2009 to Q2 of 2016 it had $17.85 of earnings and market value grew by $50.67 or by $2.93 for every $1.00 of earnings. This company passes the test.
Company #3 is a leading IT company has $15.58 in earnings and the market value grew by $40.85. It has $2.93 for every $1.00 for earnings and so passes the test.
Company #4 is a Fertilizer company had $15.95 in earnings and market value went down by $18.20, so it had a decline in market value of $1.14 for every $1.00 of earnings. This does not pass the test.
Consider doing a "dollar cost" averaging with your dividend aristocrat quarterly dividends. The compounding is magical. You have the company reinvesting earnings plus dividend reinvesting. Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe. Consider volatility as a bonus when investing in Dividend Aristocrat stocks. Buy companies that create $1.00 of market value for each $1.00 of earnings.
Today, the P/E is not cheap, but it is not expensive either. Earnings yields are a lot higher than the 10 year treasury bonds. Stocks appear to be cheaper relative to bonds.
One way of investing is to buy preferred shares, if you really do not want to be in the market. Fixed reset preferred shares have a built in rate hedge.
Often you do not get $1.00 of market value for $1.00 of earnings because of debt. You do not want companies that have a high debt load. A good way to judge the P/E of a company is to look at the historical P/E Ratios for a company.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Money Show 2016 - Stefanie Kammerman
Stefanie Kammerman's talk was entitled "Q & A with Stefanie Kammerman" Stefanie Kammerman is the founder of the Stock Whisperer Trading Company.
She says she does old fashion trading in a high tech world.
There is the Dark Pool and 40% of the volume of trading is done in the Dark Pool on Alternative Markets. Here companies can move large number of shares without moving the market. Trades are only reported when all shares of the trade are done or the next day if say Goldman Sacs trade from one office to another office. That is a trade from the US to the London market.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
She says she does old fashion trading in a high tech world.
There is the Dark Pool and 40% of the volume of trading is done in the Dark Pool on Alternative Markets. Here companies can move large number of shares without moving the market. Trades are only reported when all shares of the trade are done or the next day if say Goldman Sacs trade from one office to another office. That is a trade from the US to the London market.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Thursday, October 20, 2016
Money Show 2016 - Mike Larson
The Mike Larson's talk was entitled "The Everything Bubble: Causes, Consequences and the Case for Gold" Mike Larson is Editor of the Safe Money Report.
Druckenmiller got out of the market in May 2016. In June 2016 Bill Gross said that global yields were the lowest in 500 years. Jeff Gundlach in July 2016 said exactly how Mike Larson he feels and he says sell everything. Paul Singer on September 13, 2016 says it us a very dangerous time in the global economy and the global financial markets. This is the Everything Bubble. It is why managers with tens of billions of dollars at stake are so gloomy. They know what we face.
The problem is cheap and plentiful credit. The source is the Central Banks. Cheap dollars help assets. We are at the end game. IPOs in the US in the first half of 2015 had 15 corporations raising $13Billion; M&A's in the US was at $2.6Trillion. Buybacks was at $569Billing in 2015. This was all fueled by debt.
The Junk Bond market has exploded as money is cheap. For the Auto Industry in 2015 17.5 million vehicles were sold and Auto debt hit $9Tillion in the third quarter of 2015. A record 23% of the loans have been going to subprime. Average car loan is 68 months. A record 31% of Auto loans are underwater. Leasing market shares some 31.4% of new sales.
Real Estate commercial property prices have soared 95% eclipsing the 81% surge in the last bubble. REIT's has 34 M&A deals in 2015 doubling the 2014 tally. We have a higher peak in Real Estate that when the bubble burst in 2008.
One by one the bubbles are beginning to deflate. Signs are emerging of a turn in the credit market. For Autos in August 2016 incentives rose 8%, Sales dropped 5% and inventories are high.
There were no IPO's in January 2016 (and also none in December 2008). There were only 63 IPO's through to August 2016 and this is down 50% year over year. Private equity firms are choking on sinking investments. The easy credit systems are breaking down.
Venture capital funding dropped 19% from Q2 2015. Some companies are lying off workers and some are going broke. M&A has some transactions but in Q2 the values are down 33% year over year. Earnings fell 3.7% in Q2 and have been dropping for 6 straight quarters. This is the longest stretch from the Great Recession. There is negative profit guidance for Q3 of 2016. Buy backs are down 3.77M this year. You cannot buy back shares if you do not have the money. We have the widest debt to EBITDA gap in 20 years.
Commercial Real Estate investment is down 13% year over year. Industrial Real Estate is down 47%, Hotel Real Estate down 57% and retail down 21%. Banks are lightening Commercial Real Estate loan standards. Construction employment is down 4 of the last 5 months. This is the first time since the end of the housing bust. Apartment market is now the loosest since January 2014. The last time this happened was in January 2010.
Stock margin debt on the NYSE peaked at $507B in April 2015. It fell to $435B in February 2016. This was the third major top since 2006. Value is extreme in the S&P500 with a P/E Ratio of 18.6. Investors want out of US Stock funds.
How will the Everything Bust impact growth? August job gains of 151,000 missed the forecast of 180,000 of the Fed. Broader labor market indicators dropped 6 of the last 7 months. Service Sector growth falls to lowest in 6 plus years. The investment implications are higher cash and lower stock exposure. We should stay cautious. We should emphasize low volatility, higher recession resistant stocks and sectors.
The best long term acquisition is Snyder's-Lance Inc. (NASDAQ:LNCE), AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) and Logitech International SA (NASDAQ:LOGI). Logitech's EPS and Revenues beat estimates. Shorting ideas would be Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), Delphi Automotive PLC (NYSE:DLPH) a parts supplier and iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSE:IYR). REITs are vulnerable to rising interest rates, Recession and overvaluation.
What about Gold? It is great as chaos insurance. Buy in a bust. It is also a yield play because in a ZIRP/NIRP world there is $13Trillion in bonds with negative rates. Total demand for gold rose 15% year over year in Q2 2016. Investor demand soared to 448 tones up 141% year over year. Buy miners on pull back. If gold clears $1400 the potential exists for runs to 2011 highs near $2000.
Expect stock market volatility in 2016 and 2017. Buy the physical metal over negative rate sovereign and corporate bonds. He is bullish on gold.
The Bank of Japan just does not know what to do any more.
Go to his website for a free weekly newsletter.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Kombat Copper Inc. (TSX-KBT, OTC-PNTZF)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP)... learn more on Friday, October 21, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Druckenmiller got out of the market in May 2016. In June 2016 Bill Gross said that global yields were the lowest in 500 years. Jeff Gundlach in July 2016 said exactly how Mike Larson he feels and he says sell everything. Paul Singer on September 13, 2016 says it us a very dangerous time in the global economy and the global financial markets. This is the Everything Bubble. It is why managers with tens of billions of dollars at stake are so gloomy. They know what we face.
The problem is cheap and plentiful credit. The source is the Central Banks. Cheap dollars help assets. We are at the end game. IPOs in the US in the first half of 2015 had 15 corporations raising $13Billion; M&A's in the US was at $2.6Trillion. Buybacks was at $569Billing in 2015. This was all fueled by debt.
The Junk Bond market has exploded as money is cheap. For the Auto Industry in 2015 17.5 million vehicles were sold and Auto debt hit $9Tillion in the third quarter of 2015. A record 23% of the loans have been going to subprime. Average car loan is 68 months. A record 31% of Auto loans are underwater. Leasing market shares some 31.4% of new sales.
Real Estate commercial property prices have soared 95% eclipsing the 81% surge in the last bubble. REIT's has 34 M&A deals in 2015 doubling the 2014 tally. We have a higher peak in Real Estate that when the bubble burst in 2008.
One by one the bubbles are beginning to deflate. Signs are emerging of a turn in the credit market. For Autos in August 2016 incentives rose 8%, Sales dropped 5% and inventories are high.
There were no IPO's in January 2016 (and also none in December 2008). There were only 63 IPO's through to August 2016 and this is down 50% year over year. Private equity firms are choking on sinking investments. The easy credit systems are breaking down.
Venture capital funding dropped 19% from Q2 2015. Some companies are lying off workers and some are going broke. M&A has some transactions but in Q2 the values are down 33% year over year. Earnings fell 3.7% in Q2 and have been dropping for 6 straight quarters. This is the longest stretch from the Great Recession. There is negative profit guidance for Q3 of 2016. Buy backs are down 3.77M this year. You cannot buy back shares if you do not have the money. We have the widest debt to EBITDA gap in 20 years.
Commercial Real Estate investment is down 13% year over year. Industrial Real Estate is down 47%, Hotel Real Estate down 57% and retail down 21%. Banks are lightening Commercial Real Estate loan standards. Construction employment is down 4 of the last 5 months. This is the first time since the end of the housing bust. Apartment market is now the loosest since January 2014. The last time this happened was in January 2010.
Stock margin debt on the NYSE peaked at $507B in April 2015. It fell to $435B in February 2016. This was the third major top since 2006. Value is extreme in the S&P500 with a P/E Ratio of 18.6. Investors want out of US Stock funds.
How will the Everything Bust impact growth? August job gains of 151,000 missed the forecast of 180,000 of the Fed. Broader labor market indicators dropped 6 of the last 7 months. Service Sector growth falls to lowest in 6 plus years. The investment implications are higher cash and lower stock exposure. We should stay cautious. We should emphasize low volatility, higher recession resistant stocks and sectors.
The best long term acquisition is Snyder's-Lance Inc. (NASDAQ:LNCE), AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) and Logitech International SA (NASDAQ:LOGI). Logitech's EPS and Revenues beat estimates. Shorting ideas would be Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), Delphi Automotive PLC (NYSE:DLPH) a parts supplier and iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSE:IYR). REITs are vulnerable to rising interest rates, Recession and overvaluation.
What about Gold? It is great as chaos insurance. Buy in a bust. It is also a yield play because in a ZIRP/NIRP world there is $13Trillion in bonds with negative rates. Total demand for gold rose 15% year over year in Q2 2016. Investor demand soared to 448 tones up 141% year over year. Buy miners on pull back. If gold clears $1400 the potential exists for runs to 2011 highs near $2000.
Expect stock market volatility in 2016 and 2017. Buy the physical metal over negative rate sovereign and corporate bonds. He is bullish on gold.
The Bank of Japan just does not know what to do any more.
Go to his website for a free weekly newsletter.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Kombat Copper Inc. (TSX-KBT, OTC-PNTZF)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP)... learn more on Friday, October 21, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Money Show 2016 - Peter Schiff
The Peter Schiff's talk was entitled "How Long Can the Zombie Economy Last? Will the Fed's Next Stimulus be Fatal?" Peter Schiff is CEO of Euro Pacific Capital Inc. Peter Schiff is extremely negative on the US and feels that currencies are on their way out.
The zombie economy is the continuation of 2008 and 2000. The problem of 2000 was an asset bubble in Tech and dot com stocks. In 1990 he bought old economy while everyone else was buying new economy. No one wanted gold. Countries were selling their gold. The stocks he bought in the 1990's cost him nothing now because developments have covered his stock price.
The Fed (Yellen and Bernanke) have done more harm to the economy than anyone else. The lower interest rates policy funded the housing bubble. Interests around 0 for 8 years have fed into the doubling of the national debt. People have multiple low paying jobs. Generally people think that the economy is fine. They are making the same mistake again.
Bernanke in an interview said that he could not be honest. So we cannot believe the Fed. It is all politics. Bernanke said they were buying treasury bonds only temporarily, so not to monetize the debt. If the Fed had confidence in the economy they would be raising rates. Investments are missed priced today just like the dot com stocks were missed priced. People are delusional today. Today both the bond market and the dollar are missed priced. The easy part is lowering interest rates. The hard part is to raise them. This is why they have not done it yet.
Obama said that Yellen had called the recession. She had not. She thought the Real Estate bubble was not happening. She was very wrong. Buy Assets that others do not want. Lowered rates and rate to zero will stay. We are at the end of the recovery so they are not going to raise rates.
This has been the worse recovery in history. If you had bet on QE ending it you bet wrong. They cannot raise rates no matter what inflation gets to. They cannot raise interest rates because of the high debt. He is buying stocks in New Zealand, Norway and Singapore. In these places interest rates are going up. You should buy stocks that are cheaper compared to other stocks. Buy stocks in places where dividend yields are good.
The US economy is in worse shape than Japan and Europe. The US dollar is going to go down. This will cause inflation in the rest of the world. The US cannot raise rates because of their massive debt.
The crisis did not occur in Greece when they had a big debt. They could still borrow at good rates. It was just when people lost confidence in getting their money back that the crisis occurred. He is buying small companies in those countries that do not depend on the US consumer. He does not think that Canada is in bad shape compared to the US. The Canadian Dollar will go up. Places like New Zealand will do better.
The EU and Japan will raise rates before the US. EU and Japan have savings. Americans do not have savings. There is a bubble in car loans in the US. Everyone in the US is in debt. If they raise interest rates the economy will implode. The Fed will lose control. People assume that debt can go on forever and lower interest rates can go on forever. It cannot. People are going to abandon currency and go to gold.
Peter Schiff is on YouTube.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX-TCK.B, NYSE-TCK)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Kombat Copper Inc. (TSX-KBT, OTC-PNTZF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 19, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
The zombie economy is the continuation of 2008 and 2000. The problem of 2000 was an asset bubble in Tech and dot com stocks. In 1990 he bought old economy while everyone else was buying new economy. No one wanted gold. Countries were selling their gold. The stocks he bought in the 1990's cost him nothing now because developments have covered his stock price.
The Fed (Yellen and Bernanke) have done more harm to the economy than anyone else. The lower interest rates policy funded the housing bubble. Interests around 0 for 8 years have fed into the doubling of the national debt. People have multiple low paying jobs. Generally people think that the economy is fine. They are making the same mistake again.
Bernanke in an interview said that he could not be honest. So we cannot believe the Fed. It is all politics. Bernanke said they were buying treasury bonds only temporarily, so not to monetize the debt. If the Fed had confidence in the economy they would be raising rates. Investments are missed priced today just like the dot com stocks were missed priced. People are delusional today. Today both the bond market and the dollar are missed priced. The easy part is lowering interest rates. The hard part is to raise them. This is why they have not done it yet.
Obama said that Yellen had called the recession. She had not. She thought the Real Estate bubble was not happening. She was very wrong. Buy Assets that others do not want. Lowered rates and rate to zero will stay. We are at the end of the recovery so they are not going to raise rates.
This has been the worse recovery in history. If you had bet on QE ending it you bet wrong. They cannot raise rates no matter what inflation gets to. They cannot raise interest rates because of the high debt. He is buying stocks in New Zealand, Norway and Singapore. In these places interest rates are going up. You should buy stocks that are cheaper compared to other stocks. Buy stocks in places where dividend yields are good.
The US economy is in worse shape than Japan and Europe. The US dollar is going to go down. This will cause inflation in the rest of the world. The US cannot raise rates because of their massive debt.
The crisis did not occur in Greece when they had a big debt. They could still borrow at good rates. It was just when people lost confidence in getting their money back that the crisis occurred. He is buying small companies in those countries that do not depend on the US consumer. He does not think that Canada is in bad shape compared to the US. The Canadian Dollar will go up. Places like New Zealand will do better.
The EU and Japan will raise rates before the US. EU and Japan have savings. Americans do not have savings. There is a bubble in car loans in the US. Everyone in the US is in debt. If they raise interest rates the economy will implode. The Fed will lose control. People assume that debt can go on forever and lower interest rates can go on forever. It cannot. People are going to abandon currency and go to gold.
Peter Schiff is on YouTube.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX-TCK.B, NYSE-TCK)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Kombat Copper Inc. (TSX-KBT, OTC-PNTZF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 19, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Friday, October 14, 2016
Money Show 2016 - Charles White
Charles White's talk was entitled "Understanding How Markets Function and Having your own Investment Plan is the Best Investment Strategy". Charles White is a Business Development Advisor for Desjardins Online Brokerage.
The who, what, why in investing is not like in the movies of Wall Street, Wall Street Wolfe or the Big Short. However, there is some truth in these movies. If you want to invest, first know thyself. Do you have the time, interest and knowledge to invest? You have to like the market. Knowledge is big. The markets are open between 9:30 am and 4:00 pm. When you trade stay within these times ass there are more market participants.
The market is a meeting place between companies and individuals who want to invest and companies that need money. The market fluctuates, usually because of specific events. What makes a good day trader is a person who does not try to outsmart the market. Why invest? You do it to get some better returns. This would be investing in Real Estate, stocks, commodities, gold and silver.
Have a plan to win. Have a strategy. Write out your plan. You need diversification. The objective of a plan is to state where you stand. Analyze your objectives. Draw up a budget. Invest your money. Analyze how you do. Adjust your objectives. Know where you stand. Have an emergency fund. Plan for retirement and how you will handle debt.
Determine your risk profile. If you are conservative you might want a portfolio with 70 to 75% in fixed income, 15 to 20% in equities and 5 to 15% in cash. If you are aggressive, you might want a portfolio with 80 to 100% in equities, 0 to 10% in cash and 0 to 10% in fixed income.
What you want to avoid is investing in one stock or one type of investment. Diversification depends on the individual. For a stock portfolio you need 10 to 12 stocks. Love your parents, not your investments. Time is on your side. Keep your head above water. It is bad for example to investment your rent money in stock.
You can find investing information from the internet, family and friends, books, articles, recordings (like BNN) and Webinars. Build a portfolio using stocks, ETFs, Mutual Funds, Bonds and GICs. You do not have to stop investing when you retire.
Build a watch list. Have a stock portfolio of 10 to 12 stocks. Do not micromanage your portfolio. Diversify your stock portfolio with stocks of different skill sets. Today some 40% of all stock trades are by smart phones.
On my other blog I wrote today about HNZ Group Inc. (TSX-HNZ, OTC- CDHPF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX-TCK.B, NYSE-TCK)... learn more on Monday, October 17, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
The who, what, why in investing is not like in the movies of Wall Street, Wall Street Wolfe or the Big Short. However, there is some truth in these movies. If you want to invest, first know thyself. Do you have the time, interest and knowledge to invest? You have to like the market. Knowledge is big. The markets are open between 9:30 am and 4:00 pm. When you trade stay within these times ass there are more market participants.
The market is a meeting place between companies and individuals who want to invest and companies that need money. The market fluctuates, usually because of specific events. What makes a good day trader is a person who does not try to outsmart the market. Why invest? You do it to get some better returns. This would be investing in Real Estate, stocks, commodities, gold and silver.
Have a plan to win. Have a strategy. Write out your plan. You need diversification. The objective of a plan is to state where you stand. Analyze your objectives. Draw up a budget. Invest your money. Analyze how you do. Adjust your objectives. Know where you stand. Have an emergency fund. Plan for retirement and how you will handle debt.
Determine your risk profile. If you are conservative you might want a portfolio with 70 to 75% in fixed income, 15 to 20% in equities and 5 to 15% in cash. If you are aggressive, you might want a portfolio with 80 to 100% in equities, 0 to 10% in cash and 0 to 10% in fixed income.
What you want to avoid is investing in one stock or one type of investment. Diversification depends on the individual. For a stock portfolio you need 10 to 12 stocks. Love your parents, not your investments. Time is on your side. Keep your head above water. It is bad for example to investment your rent money in stock.
You can find investing information from the internet, family and friends, books, articles, recordings (like BNN) and Webinars. Build a portfolio using stocks, ETFs, Mutual Funds, Bonds and GICs. You do not have to stop investing when you retire.
Build a watch list. Have a stock portfolio of 10 to 12 stocks. Do not micromanage your portfolio. Diversify your stock portfolio with stocks of different skill sets. Today some 40% of all stock trades are by smart phones.
On my other blog I wrote today about HNZ Group Inc. (TSX-HNZ, OTC- CDHPF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX-TCK.B, NYSE-TCK)... learn more on Monday, October 17, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Thursday, October 13, 2016
Money Show 2016 - Benjamin Tal
The Benjamin Tal's talk was entitled "Is There Logic Behind the Madness". Benjamin Tal is a Managing Director and the Deputy Chief economist with CIBC Capital Markets.
What do you do when you do not know what to do? Times are not normal. Interest rates are negative or zero and they are printing money. This is not normal for 8 years into a recovery.
Japan cannot get out of their economic problems and we are afraid we are becoming Japan. The North American bond yields are following those of Japan. This maybe a new normal, but it is not normal. In Norway people are paid to take a mortgage because of negative interest rates. The Global economy is slowing down. We do not know what is happening in Canada.
The market leads the Fed, not the other way around. The only reason not to raise interest rates is fear.
In the EU there is uncertainty. They are overestimating the short term, but underestimating the long term. They have underestimated the results from Brexit. The Euro was a mistake. Italy and Germany together and they expected something good? Unemployment is at 50% of the youth. The Euro is the risk factor. Angela Merkel and the EU said no to Greece because of Spain. The Euro is currently stable, but it will be tested over the next year. There is political instability. He is shorting the Euro.
China is expanding at 2 to 3%, not 6.5%. China is important. They think that they have the monetary, fiscal and political might to fix any problem. Market went down and the government tried to fix it. There is a crisis of credibility. If unemployment rises, China will be tested. There are some signs that they are panicking. China may do what they do best and that is export. To do this they must devalue their currency. The number one reason money is leaving China is the fear of devaluation.
For oil over the long or short term, prices will go down. The current decline is just the beginning. Saudi Arabia decided not to be the swing producer. They no longer care where oil prices go. The reason for this is alternative energy. The lower the price for oil, the lower prices to pay for green energy.
The US can produce oil at $60 a barrel. (Canada's Oil Sands cannot.) He would buy long in US oil, but not Canadian oil. He is bullish on the US economy. The US has corporate bankruptcies back to normal levels. Credit will start to oil the US economy via consumers. Wages should start to rise. Real Estate is going up. The US housing needs to rise as echo boomers age. There is lots of pend up demand in the US.
Canada is different. The Canadian Banks want a weak Canadian Dollars. They are cutting rates. He is not long Canadian Banks as credit is difficult at the moment. If you cut interest rates you do not stimulate credit spending. This cannot be done. The Canadian Dollar is down because of the price of oil. So we cut 50 basis points for nothing.
When the monetary policy is done, we need fiscal policy. Everyone is trying to lower their currency. It is a currency war. The only winner is gold. Gold is security, so go long on gold. When monetary policy is not working and we have an infrastructure deficit, fiscal policy must expand.
In the US, regardless of presidential winner, there will be spending. The EU has an infrastructure deficit and they will start spending. Go long on infrastructure. In Canada our manufacturing should be expanding because we have a lack of capacity. However, the US is not buying what we are selling. The US is buying services and we are selling goods.
There will be a significant rise in US manufacturing of consumer goods. There will be a renaissance of US manufacturing. China's young want quality tech and they will want to get us stuff. The future of US manufacturing will be consumer goods.
He is shorting Canadian Real Estate. In the GTA there are higher prices because of lack of supply. There is inflation in detached houses, but no great inflation in the Condo market. The Condo market is the only affordable market.
When monetary policy is through, we need fiscal policy. We need to spend on infrastructure. Interest rates are no going to rise anytime soon. To understand how markets function and having your own investment plan is a winning strategy.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (TSX-ENF, OTC-EBGUF)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about HNZ Group Inc. (TSX-HNZ, OTC- CDHPF)... learn more on Friday, October 14, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
What do you do when you do not know what to do? Times are not normal. Interest rates are negative or zero and they are printing money. This is not normal for 8 years into a recovery.
Japan cannot get out of their economic problems and we are afraid we are becoming Japan. The North American bond yields are following those of Japan. This maybe a new normal, but it is not normal. In Norway people are paid to take a mortgage because of negative interest rates. The Global economy is slowing down. We do not know what is happening in Canada.
| The cycle looks like this: | ||
|---|---|---|
| ↗ | Market Nervous | ↘ |
| ↑ | ↓ | |
| Policy Makers hint that stimulus worked | Confidence worsens | |
| ↑ | ↓ | |
| Confidence Outlook Improves | Central Bank & Gov. Active | |
| ↑ | ↓ | |
| ↖ | Market Improves | ↙ |
The market leads the Fed, not the other way around. The only reason not to raise interest rates is fear.
In the EU there is uncertainty. They are overestimating the short term, but underestimating the long term. They have underestimated the results from Brexit. The Euro was a mistake. Italy and Germany together and they expected something good? Unemployment is at 50% of the youth. The Euro is the risk factor. Angela Merkel and the EU said no to Greece because of Spain. The Euro is currently stable, but it will be tested over the next year. There is political instability. He is shorting the Euro.
China is expanding at 2 to 3%, not 6.5%. China is important. They think that they have the monetary, fiscal and political might to fix any problem. Market went down and the government tried to fix it. There is a crisis of credibility. If unemployment rises, China will be tested. There are some signs that they are panicking. China may do what they do best and that is export. To do this they must devalue their currency. The number one reason money is leaving China is the fear of devaluation.
For oil over the long or short term, prices will go down. The current decline is just the beginning. Saudi Arabia decided not to be the swing producer. They no longer care where oil prices go. The reason for this is alternative energy. The lower the price for oil, the lower prices to pay for green energy.
The US can produce oil at $60 a barrel. (Canada's Oil Sands cannot.) He would buy long in US oil, but not Canadian oil. He is bullish on the US economy. The US has corporate bankruptcies back to normal levels. Credit will start to oil the US economy via consumers. Wages should start to rise. Real Estate is going up. The US housing needs to rise as echo boomers age. There is lots of pend up demand in the US.
Canada is different. The Canadian Banks want a weak Canadian Dollars. They are cutting rates. He is not long Canadian Banks as credit is difficult at the moment. If you cut interest rates you do not stimulate credit spending. This cannot be done. The Canadian Dollar is down because of the price of oil. So we cut 50 basis points for nothing.
When the monetary policy is done, we need fiscal policy. Everyone is trying to lower their currency. It is a currency war. The only winner is gold. Gold is security, so go long on gold. When monetary policy is not working and we have an infrastructure deficit, fiscal policy must expand.
In the US, regardless of presidential winner, there will be spending. The EU has an infrastructure deficit and they will start spending. Go long on infrastructure. In Canada our manufacturing should be expanding because we have a lack of capacity. However, the US is not buying what we are selling. The US is buying services and we are selling goods.
There will be a significant rise in US manufacturing of consumer goods. There will be a renaissance of US manufacturing. China's young want quality tech and they will want to get us stuff. The future of US manufacturing will be consumer goods.
He is shorting Canadian Real Estate. In the GTA there are higher prices because of lack of supply. There is inflation in detached houses, but no great inflation in the Condo market. The Condo market is the only affordable market.
When monetary policy is through, we need fiscal policy. We need to spend on infrastructure. Interest rates are no going to rise anytime soon. To understand how markets function and having your own investment plan is a winning strategy.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (TSX-ENF, OTC-EBGUF)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about HNZ Group Inc. (TSX-HNZ, OTC- CDHPF)... learn more on Friday, October 14, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Money Show 2016 - Money Sense Panel
This panel was part of the opening Ceremonies. The panel was entitled "The Money Sense Secrets to Winning with Stocks". The moderator of panel was David Thomas of Money Sense. The members of the panel were Dan Bortolotti of Money Sense, Tom Bradley of Steadyhand Investments Funds and Norm Rothery of Stingy Investor.
Dan: ETFs make the most sense. Beating the market is very difficult but now you can match the market which ETFs can do. You should use 2 to 3 ETF funds to cover the Canadian and the International markets. Start by figuring out what percentage you want to put into stocks. With the stock money put one third into Canadian Stocks, one third into US stocks and one third into International stocks. This is so you have 3 buckets of stocks.
When adding to your stock investments, rebalance to this one third mix. Most people cannot beat this mix. To reduce investing challenges you should overwhelming chose ETFs. Go for low fee and simple ETFs. You might feel that you need more holdings than 3 ETFs, but you do not.
Tom: He talked about the 7 Ps of active investing for Mutual Funds. He talked about building a portfolio that is different than the index. There is pressure on fund managers to keep up with the index. Funds can get too big and therefore have a hard time investing. Because of fees, active investment management cost more. You should take a long term perspective.
Set up a simple dividend portfolio. You want stocks with high yields of 3 to 4%. You want stocks with good dividend growth over the past 5 years. You want companies that can afford their dividends. Get companies with low debt ratios. Also buy stocks at good prices, at moderate to low prices. It is the 10 anniversary of The Dividend Achiever's list.
Most people who have done well over the long term are dividend investors.
Tom: But there is a bubble in dividend stocks. They have a good return compared to bonds. Dividend stocks will be hurt in the next bear market and you need to diversity. Do not only have banks or 10% yields. There is risk in banks. Their customers are overly loaded with debt. In Ireland banks and insurance companies went bankrupt in 2008. Their value went to zero.
Dan: ETFs are changing to more active management rather than being tracking index ETFs. These ETF have strategies different from an Index. The active strategies use screening to get stocks.
Tom: ETFs are getting away from just following an index. They more specialized and this can be a problem. ETFs have lost their way.
Dan: He disagrees. It is nice to be able to buy a country specific ETF. The growth of ETFs disrupts the market and makes them more efficient. If everyone is indexing and the market becomes more inefficient, them someone will come in and take advantage of this. Dan: He disagrees. It is nice to be able to buy a country specific ETF. The growth of ETFs disrupts the market and makes them more efficient. If everyone is indexing and the market becomes more inefficient, them someone will come in and take advantage of this.
Tom: Expect 5 to 7% investment return in the future. Historically investors got 8% on dividend stocks.
Norm: He agrees with the 5 to 7% investment return in the future. He doesn't really know what will happen, but lots can happen. You can do ok, but do not expect too much.
On my other blog I wrote today about Linamar Corporation (TSX-LNR, OTC-LIMAF)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (TSX-ENF, OTC-EBGUF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 12, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Dan: ETFs make the most sense. Beating the market is very difficult but now you can match the market which ETFs can do. You should use 2 to 3 ETF funds to cover the Canadian and the International markets. Start by figuring out what percentage you want to put into stocks. With the stock money put one third into Canadian Stocks, one third into US stocks and one third into International stocks. This is so you have 3 buckets of stocks.
When adding to your stock investments, rebalance to this one third mix. Most people cannot beat this mix. To reduce investing challenges you should overwhelming chose ETFs. Go for low fee and simple ETFs. You might feel that you need more holdings than 3 ETFs, but you do not.
Tom: He talked about the 7 Ps of active investing for Mutual Funds. He talked about building a portfolio that is different than the index. There is pressure on fund managers to keep up with the index. Funds can get too big and therefore have a hard time investing. Because of fees, active investment management cost more. You should take a long term perspective.
- People make money. That is people with talent. They need the experience of having been through market cycles.
- Look at the Parent company. The organization where people operate.
- Look at the fund's philosophy of how they will manage money. If they talk too much of being underweight or overweight, then they are watching the index too much.
- Look at the process. How many people are involved?
- The price is the fees charged.
- Look at performance and how well they did overtime. A long term record counts.
- Look at passion. You want to have geeks who love investing.
Set up a simple dividend portfolio. You want stocks with high yields of 3 to 4%. You want stocks with good dividend growth over the past 5 years. You want companies that can afford their dividends. Get companies with low debt ratios. Also buy stocks at good prices, at moderate to low prices. It is the 10 anniversary of The Dividend Achiever's list.
Most people who have done well over the long term are dividend investors.
Tom: But there is a bubble in dividend stocks. They have a good return compared to bonds. Dividend stocks will be hurt in the next bear market and you need to diversity. Do not only have banks or 10% yields. There is risk in banks. Their customers are overly loaded with debt. In Ireland banks and insurance companies went bankrupt in 2008. Their value went to zero.
Dan: ETFs are changing to more active management rather than being tracking index ETFs. These ETF have strategies different from an Index. The active strategies use screening to get stocks.
Tom: ETFs are getting away from just following an index. They more specialized and this can be a problem. ETFs have lost their way.
Dan: He disagrees. It is nice to be able to buy a country specific ETF. The growth of ETFs disrupts the market and makes them more efficient. If everyone is indexing and the market becomes more inefficient, them someone will come in and take advantage of this. Dan: He disagrees. It is nice to be able to buy a country specific ETF. The growth of ETFs disrupts the market and makes them more efficient. If everyone is indexing and the market becomes more inefficient, them someone will come in and take advantage of this.
Tom: Expect 5 to 7% investment return in the future. Historically investors got 8% on dividend stocks.
Norm: He agrees with the 5 to 7% investment return in the future. He doesn't really know what will happen, but lots can happen. You can do ok, but do not expect too much.
On my other blog I wrote today about Linamar Corporation (TSX-LNR, OTC-LIMAF)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (TSX-ENF, OTC-EBGUF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 12, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Friday, October 7, 2016
Money Show 2016 - Gold Panel
This panel was part of the opening Ceremonies. The panel was entitled "Has Gold Finally Found its Catalyst?" The moderator of panel was Matt McCall of Penn Financial Group. The members of the panel were Mike Larson of Weiss Research and Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital.
Matt: We at are the beginning of an up leg in the gold market. US inflation is 2% for the last 10 months, but interest rates will stay low. The Fed cannot normalize interest rates (because their policies have not been successful). If they issue long term bonds it would cause interest rates to rise and therefore cause lots of problems with debt repayment.
Peter: Fed is not going to raise interest rates. The last interest rate rise caused the stock market to tank, so they cannot raise them.
Mike: We should own gold for safety. QE has not worked. Japan's action has not worked.
Peter: They will not raise interest rates because it would cause a recession. Before they wanted price stability, now they do not want price stability. They want inflation. Gold will go up because currency no longer pays interest any more. This is just like gold. He thinks gold will go up because currency is losing value.
Mike: The percentage in gold to hold is 7.5% to 10%. We should buy more in current pull back. Everything is overvalues, that is all asset classes.
Peter: Bonds are the riskiest investments today. To stop the bubbles from bursting, they will keep interest rates low. For Bonds, it is bad to be paid in dollars in the future as the dollar will be worth less. This is a way to transfer the savings of the people to the government who has debt.
Peter: You should be buy real gold. As demand for gold goes up, gold prices will go up. Also, buy gold stocks, but buy the right ones. You can also buy gold by Mutual Funds and ETFs. The hedge funds do not own gold stocks, so gold stocks are still low. They may start to buy them now as the Fed's policies have not worked.
Mike: Big money is starting to look at gold.
Peter: How do you know an ETF has gold? Look at their audit.
On my other blog I wrote today about K-Bro Linen Inc. (TSX-KBL, OTC-KBRLF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Linamar Corporation (TSX-LNR, OTC-LIMAF)... learn more on Tuesday, October 11, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Matt: We at are the beginning of an up leg in the gold market. US inflation is 2% for the last 10 months, but interest rates will stay low. The Fed cannot normalize interest rates (because their policies have not been successful). If they issue long term bonds it would cause interest rates to rise and therefore cause lots of problems with debt repayment.
Peter: Fed is not going to raise interest rates. The last interest rate rise caused the stock market to tank, so they cannot raise them.
Mike: We should own gold for safety. QE has not worked. Japan's action has not worked.
Peter: They will not raise interest rates because it would cause a recession. Before they wanted price stability, now they do not want price stability. They want inflation. Gold will go up because currency no longer pays interest any more. This is just like gold. He thinks gold will go up because currency is losing value.
Mike: The percentage in gold to hold is 7.5% to 10%. We should buy more in current pull back. Everything is overvalues, that is all asset classes.
Peter: Bonds are the riskiest investments today. To stop the bubbles from bursting, they will keep interest rates low. For Bonds, it is bad to be paid in dollars in the future as the dollar will be worth less. This is a way to transfer the savings of the people to the government who has debt.
Peter: You should be buy real gold. As demand for gold goes up, gold prices will go up. Also, buy gold stocks, but buy the right ones. You can also buy gold by Mutual Funds and ETFs. The hedge funds do not own gold stocks, so gold stocks are still low. They may start to buy them now as the Fed's policies have not worked.
Mike: Big money is starting to look at gold.
Peter: How do you know an ETF has gold? Look at their audit.
On my other blog I wrote today about K-Bro Linen Inc. (TSX-KBL, OTC-KBRLF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Linamar Corporation (TSX-LNR, OTC-LIMAF)... learn more on Tuesday, October 11, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Thursday, October 6, 2016
Money Show 2016 - Rob Carrick
Rob Carrick was also part of the opening Ceremonies. His talk was entitled "Stop Making These Investment Mistakes". Rob Carrick is a Columnist with the Globe and Mail. He says that over the past 18 years he has received some 17,680 emails.
First, do not invest in any product in residential real estate. Commercial real estate is fine, that is in offices, mails or towers.
It is always a mistake to get sucked in my high yields in any investment including bonds. High yields will always mean high risk.
Do not think that dividend stock is the answer to everything. When interest rates rise some will suffer. This includes utilities and consumer discretionary stock. Also do not have a bank heavy portfolio. Banks can also get into trouble.
You should diversity. Do not go all into one thing. Do not go all in, in what is working in your portfolio. This is bad for the long term.
Do not think that you must be on the right side of the Canadian dollar. That is a rising Canadian dollar. Do not go in and out of hedging. You cannot tell where the dollar will go.
It is a mistake to think that financial planning and investing is the same thing. Investing advice does not include financial planning.
Do not obsess about fees. Think about what you are getting for your money. Sometimes high fees are efficient and sometimes they are not.
Do not try to time the market. Making a decision to get out of the market is much easier than getting back in. Buying at the low point is hard because the market can be bleak. The right portfolio is one to keep through all times. If you feel that you have to bail out of your portfolio, then you have the wrong portfolio.
Do not get out of Bonds. Government bonds have low interest rates but they will not default. They do not become riskier when interest rates rise. They are a defensive play, not an income play.
Do not take too much of a short term outlook. Do not check your portfolio daily. You will only make yourself crazy if you do this.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Le Chateau Inc. (TSX-CTU.A, OTC-LCUAF)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about K-Bro Linen Inc. (TSX-KBL, OTC-KBRLF)... learn more on Friday, October 7, 2016 date around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
First, do not invest in any product in residential real estate. Commercial real estate is fine, that is in offices, mails or towers.
It is always a mistake to get sucked in my high yields in any investment including bonds. High yields will always mean high risk.
Do not think that dividend stock is the answer to everything. When interest rates rise some will suffer. This includes utilities and consumer discretionary stock. Also do not have a bank heavy portfolio. Banks can also get into trouble.
You should diversity. Do not go all into one thing. Do not go all in, in what is working in your portfolio. This is bad for the long term.
Do not think that you must be on the right side of the Canadian dollar. That is a rising Canadian dollar. Do not go in and out of hedging. You cannot tell where the dollar will go.
It is a mistake to think that financial planning and investing is the same thing. Investing advice does not include financial planning.
Do not obsess about fees. Think about what you are getting for your money. Sometimes high fees are efficient and sometimes they are not.
Do not try to time the market. Making a decision to get out of the market is much easier than getting back in. Buying at the low point is hard because the market can be bleak. The right portfolio is one to keep through all times. If you feel that you have to bail out of your portfolio, then you have the wrong portfolio.
Do not get out of Bonds. Government bonds have low interest rates but they will not default. They do not become riskier when interest rates rise. They are a defensive play, not an income play.
Do not take too much of a short term outlook. Do not check your portfolio daily. You will only make yourself crazy if you do this.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Le Chateau Inc. (TSX-CTU.A, OTC-LCUAF)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about K-Bro Linen Inc. (TSX-KBL, OTC-KBRLF)... learn more on Friday, October 7, 2016 date around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
Money Show 2016 - James Purvis
Jamie Purvis was also part of the opening Ceremonies. His talk was entitled “The current State of the ETF Market and the Types of ETFs Available in Canada”. Jamie Purvis is Executive Vice President of Horizons Exchange Traded Funds Inc. The link to their site is here.
Horizons sell Alpha, Benchmark and BetaPro ETFs in Canada. In 2009 ETFs were at 24 Billion. Today they are at 103 Billion. People are buying ETFs because of low fees. The 3 year growth in Mutual Funds is at 25%. The 3 year growth in ETFs is 63%. There were few providers in Canada when Horizon came to Canada. Soon all Canadian Banks will be in this market.
ETFs will continue to grow. They are 5% of the market now. By 2024 they will be 18% of the market. Indexing is your best default investment. However, indexing is not a one-size-fits-all solution. Index ETFs are highly liquid, transparent and have breath of security. ETFs however are not effective for preferred shares, corporate bonds, high yield bonds, senior loans, alternative or municipal bonds.
The benefits of ETFs is they are efficient, they have improved tracking errors (but tracking is limited by fees), have lower fees, and no income is received so income is reinvested so they can track total return indexes.
New ETFs are strategic Beta (or smart Beta). They use passively managed index strategy or use capital weighting. Types of strategies include equal weighting, fundamental index or low volatility. These are the popular strategies. Others are leverage ETFs which provide double or triple inverse exposure to daily performance of underlying benchmark. You will never lose more than invested and there is no margin call risk.
We now also have active managed ETFs.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Granite REIT (TSX-GRT.UN, NYSE-GRP.U)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Le Chateau Inc. (TSX-CTU.A, OTC-LCUAF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 04, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
Horizons sell Alpha, Benchmark and BetaPro ETFs in Canada. In 2009 ETFs were at 24 Billion. Today they are at 103 Billion. People are buying ETFs because of low fees. The 3 year growth in Mutual Funds is at 25%. The 3 year growth in ETFs is 63%. There were few providers in Canada when Horizon came to Canada. Soon all Canadian Banks will be in this market.
ETFs will continue to grow. They are 5% of the market now. By 2024 they will be 18% of the market. Indexing is your best default investment. However, indexing is not a one-size-fits-all solution. Index ETFs are highly liquid, transparent and have breath of security. ETFs however are not effective for preferred shares, corporate bonds, high yield bonds, senior loans, alternative or municipal bonds.
The benefits of ETFs is they are efficient, they have improved tracking errors (but tracking is limited by fees), have lower fees, and no income is received so income is reinvested so they can track total return indexes.
New ETFs are strategic Beta (or smart Beta). They use passively managed index strategy or use capital weighting. Types of strategies include equal weighting, fundamental index or low volatility. These are the popular strategies. Others are leverage ETFs which provide double or triple inverse exposure to daily performance of underlying benchmark. You will never lose more than invested and there is no margin call risk.
We now also have active managed ETFs.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Granite REIT (TSX-GRT.UN, NYSE-GRP.U)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Le Chateau Inc. (TSX-CTU.A, OTC-LCUAF)... learn more on Wednesday, October 04, 2016 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.
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