Thursday, January 14, 2016

Update Notes

When I review stock price and dividends each month, I also take the opportunity to look at a bit closer at some of the stocks I cover. These some of the stocks I looked at more closely. Also note my spreadsheet shows dividends that have declared.

Automodular Corp. (TSX-AM.H, OTC-AMZKF)

The stock price has gone up a bit. It seems like they have not yet found something to do. For some reason TD Waterhouse is showing this stock as having a dividend of $0.25 annually. However, they are not granting any dividends at this time.

Bombardier Inc. (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF)

Andrew Walker of Motley Fool still seems to be positive about this stock with another report at the end of 2015. At least Bombardier is selling planes as this article in the Financial Post talks about.

It is hard to know what will happen to this firm. There is a possibility it would go bankrupt. This is when investors lose big time as generally their investment is worth zero.

Husky Energy Inc. (TSX-HSE, OTC-HUSKF)

Both the TD Bank and G&M still say that the dividend has decreased from $1.20 to $1.18. I cannot find any evidence of that. There is been nothing new from the company since they announced that future dividends will be paid in shares and not cash. In their latest news release they said that they will continue to review dividends on a quarterly basis with the objective of return cash to shareholders.

TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NYSE-TAC)

I have had this company since 1987. I have worried about this stock for a while. The dividend yield is over 14%. Usually when this happens, that is dividend yields get very high, it is because the market expects a dividend cut. Matt Smith of Motley Fool suggests just that.

The company, at present, is not saying anything. Some analysts think that the dividend will be cut, but most seem to think it will not. But, who knows. It certainly is not a good sign when dividend yield rises so high.

Atlantic Power Corp. (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT)

The news for this company is all about insider buying like this recent report by Eric Jhonsa on Seeking Alpha. Another item is about the company being the biggest gain on the NYSE on Wall Street Point.

This article in Insider Monkey talks about hedge fund holdings. Some have dropped this firm and others have upped their holdings significantly. They suggest because of this that you should do some analysis on this stock and possibly include it in your portfolio. According to an article in American Trade Journal short positions in this stock have dropped.

Perhaps this stock is now doing better?

Le Chateau Inc. (TSX-CTU.A, OTC-LCUAF)

An article on Yahoo Finance talks about the third quarterly report from this company. Total sales are still lower and EPS is still negative. However, they increased sales per store by 2.5% (because they are fewer stores.) Kenneth Chan of Van City Buzz asks is Le Chateau is on a Death Watch? He does not think it can survive using its current business model.

Newfoundland Capital Corp. (TSX-NCC.A, OTC-n/a)

This stock pays a dividend twice a year. For the last few years the dividends have been at $0.09 payable in January and $0.06 payable in September. Last year the dividend declared in December 2014 for $0.09 was payable on January 30, 2015. This year the December 2015 dividend declared is being paid on December 30, 2015. This dividend is for $0.09.

Sites have updated annual dividend to $0.18 annually. However, at this time of the year sites usually increase the annual dividend to $0.18 and then lower it to $0.12 annual around September. I have kept my annual dividend on this stock at $0.15 annual (a $0.09 and a $0.06 dividend each year.) It is hard to know because the company has not said so if they are changing their dividend policy. I am currently assuming that the dividend $0.09 is the one that is generally paid in January, so I am keeping the annual dividend at $0.15 until I know differently.

There was also a report in the Herald Chronicle about this company having a very good third quarter with profit higher by some 57%. There is an article by Glen Korstrom in the Business Vancouver saying that radio stations are doing better than TV stations since the CRTC has rules that cable providers must give subscribers more freedom to choose individual channels to watch.

Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF)

This company Savaria Corporation expects 2016 to be a record year. They provide solutions for mobility. With the number of aging people around I can see that as a growth industry.

I see more and more people using walkers. A number seem to be younger than me. I do exercise 5 days a week, doing Tae Bo from some YouTube videos. I clear a space in front of my computer to do this. I remember once seeing a video of a woman who was getting people off of walkers by getting them to exercise. She started them off exercising sitting in a chair. It was quite interesting. As I understand it with balance and muscle tone, you use it or lose it. Apparently we start to lose muscle tone and balance after 50 if we do nothing.

Unfortunately, the stock price still looks quite high. This stock had very high yields in the past, so by dividend yield the current price seemed high. So I looked at other indicators.

The 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.04, 15.98 and 18.91. The current P/E Ratio is 22.04 based on a stock price of $5.51 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.25. The P/E Ratio for 2016 is 19.00 based on a stock price of $5.51 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.29. This suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $2.93 for 2015 and $3.16 for 2016. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.93, 1.17 and 1.42. The P/GP Ratios would be 1.88 for 2015 and 1.74 for 2016. The 10 years ratios are reasonable ratios. A P/GP Ratio of 1.74 is a high one by any standard. So this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.

The 10 year Price/Book Value Ratio is 1.85. This is a reasonable P/B Ratio. The current P/B Ratio is 3.60 a rather high ratio and it is some 94% above the 10 year ratio. This also suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Looking at P/S Ratio testing and P/CF Ratio testing does not give any better results. There are a lot of reasons to like this stock. It has good growth and a strong balance sheet. It is something probably to put on a hit list and go for it when the price moderates. All stocks have good prices at different times and bear markets happen on a regular basis. However, the economic expansion since 2008 has been long and slow. It is hard to know when we will hit another hard landing in stocks.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO)...learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY)... learn more.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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