Thursday, April 28, 2016

Recovery from Bears

I decided to take another look at how fast I recovered from the last bear markets in regards to the TSX. This time I have excluded my US Trading Account. I get my portfolio values from Quicken but Quicken does not handle different currencies well and the US Trading Account is less than 1% of my holding.

Looking at TSX charts, it seems that August 2000 was the top and September 2002 was the bottom. I am taking them to the nearest month end as I only have my portfolio data for month ends. The time column gives time since the last entry and the Y to Beg is time from the beginning that is August 2000.

From the chart it looks like the bear market lasted around 5.33 years, but my portfolio recovered slightly earlier at 5 years. I was looking for the first month end when my portfolio was higher than at the beginning and the TSX was higher than at the beginning.

So it looks like my portfolio only went down 30 % while the TSX went down 45%. By the end of August 2005 my portfolio was up by 2% while the TSX was still down by 5%. My recovery from the bottom was only 46% compared to the TSX which was up from the bottom by 73%. By the end of 2005 the TSX was up another 6% and was around the same value as it was in August 2000. My portfolio was up another 3% and was up from the high of August 2000 by almost 5%.

Date Time Y to Beg TSX YoY Y to Beg. YoY Y to Beg.
31-Aug-00 11,248
30-Sep-02 2.08 2.08 6,180 -45.06% -45.06% -30.14% -30.14%
30-Aug-05 2.92 5.00 10,669 72.64% -5.15% 46.11% 2.08%
31-Dec-05 0.34 5.33 11,272 5.65% 0.21% 2.75% 4.89%

I seemed to have done even better with the 2008 bear market. At the bottom in February 2009, the TSX was down around 40% and I was down around 28%. My portfolio had recovered by August 2010 staging a 40% recovery whereas the TSX was only up by 35%. There was a top in the TSX in February 2011, and the TSX came within 4% of the top. By that time my portfolio was up some 16% above the top of 2008. The TSX finally recovered by May 2014 around the TSX top of 2008, but my portfolio was up some 54% above the top of 2008.

Date Time Y to Beg TSX YoY Y to Beg. YoY Y to Beg.
30-May-08 14,715
27-Feb-09 0.75 0.75 8,845 -39.89% -39.89% -27.63% -27.63%
31-Aug-10 1.51 2.25 11,914 34.70% -19.03% 40.28% 1.52%
28-Feb-11 0.50 2.75 14,137 18.66% -3.93% 13.96% 15.69%
31-May-12 1.25 4.00 11,513 -18.56% -21.76% -0.91% 14.64%
30-May-14 2.00 6.00 14,604 26.85% -0.75% 34.48% 54.17%

I want to take another look at my portfolio and compare it to the iShares S&P/TSX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index (TSX-CDZ) which is probably the ETF most comparable to my Canadian Trading Account.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Veresen Inc. (TSX-VSN, OTC-FCGYF)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF)... learn more on Friday, April 29, 2016 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Eat Well Age Better by Mason and Stoffman learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk . The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.

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