This is the last entry I will do for the Money Show of 2019. I only went to one more session and it was by Tom Sosnoff of Tasty Trade. I think it is time to move on. In the new year, I will start to review some of mine stocks and the ones with September and October year-ends
Donald Vialoux and John Vialoux spoke in a Saturday, September 21, 2019 afternoon session. Their talk was called “Quantitative Portfolio Management Strategies: Growth and Income Focus”. Donald Vialoux is Founder, Tech Talk. His company’s site is here. Jon Vialoux is Founder, Equity Clock. His company’s site is here.
We can improve our investment returns by combining Seasonable, Fundamental and Technical analysis. The consumers spending on gas rises in the summer. It is the trend that is important. Spending on clothing rises in the Spring and the Fall. Retail does well at Christmas time. The equity market has seasonality.
What is Seasonal Investing? The markets are influence by seasonally recurring tendencies including those pertaining to economic indicators, corporation earnings, consumer and business spending patterns, recurring announcements, and recurring and planned events.
Mostly he does fundamentals first, then looks at seasonality and then technical analysis on when to buy. Seasonable investing focuses on the entry point and the exit point.
Sell in May did not work in 2019. And it does not always work. Often you see high markets after May. Lately there has sometimes been a lot of volatility and the fundamentals say caution.
Where do we stand? Opening job growth is slowing. We have above average growth in jobs. There are enough jobs for all the unemployed. Consumers spending is the best in over 15 years. Consumers are benefiting from job growth. The risk of a recession is currently low because of this. There is some caution needed here.
Manufacturing and industrials are trending below average in the US. If industrial trending is below average the President does not get re-elected. Trending below average in shipments rising a flag but consumers are still in good shape. It is the trade war that is making shipping activities below average.
In tech, the consumer electronics show in January does not affect technology like it used to. There is above average spending on tech by companies and consumers. It is still trending with higher highs and higher lows. Semiconductors benefit from higher spending by consumers and companies.
Home building is doing well. This peaks in February and May. We are trending above average in home sales and new homes. Rates are coming down. ITF is the ETF for home building. Heavy construction in the summer months. Both the Democrats and Republicans agree on infrastructure spending.
For retail and people spending use the widely traded XRT Retail ETF. Amazon has been driving things. In the US spending peaks in the US Thanksgiving weekend.
Stay away from energy in the fourth quarter except for refining oil. The ETF for refiners is CREK. Access Equity Clock here for seasonality. It is also on StockTwits @equityclock.
Possible recession? Business is staining now but everything is still fine with consumers. He is not seeing problems that happened at the end of last year. The economic data is still coming in good. Long term traders should look at the 200 day moving average. You should look at the trends. Do you have higher highs or lower lows?
He is worried about the CDN$ and it might go lower. People are fleeing the US. In Canada manufacturing is not straining as in the US. The market is oversupplied with oil. There is lots of stock piling of oil. Buy on the rumor and sell on the news. There are dark pools and dark indexes. There is activity going on behind the scene. Big investors trade in the dark pool.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Element Fleet Management Corp (TSX-ENF, OTC-ELEEF) ... learn more. Next, I will write about Metro Inc (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF) ... learn more on January 2, 2020 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.