Blogging in 2016

I will be changing my approach to blogging on stocks next year. I think my blog entries are too long and they take up too much of my time. For 2016, I will only have one blog entry on each stock. Of course, if I review a stock that I have never before reviewed, I will do a 2 pager on that stock.

I plan to blog about stocks on Monday, Wednesday and Friday each week on my Investment Talk blog. I will write something in this blog called Investing, Economics Mostly on Tuesday and Thursday each week.

Instead of talking about a number of different things about a stock I will structure my blogs about stocks. I plan to start as usual in discussing dividends, their growth, their yield and if the company can afford to pay them. I will mention, if applicable, if shareholders should focus per share values or not because of increase or decrease in shares. I will look to see if the company has a strong or weak balance sheet. I will talk about anything that catches my eye when I update or review a spreadsheet. (At least this is the plan at present.)

I used to talk a lot about the current stock price and if it was good or not by doing at least 4 tests. I plan to cut back on this. I will talk about the current stock price using P/E Ratios and how they compare to historical P/E Ratios. Most analysts focus on stock price based on P/E Ratio, so I may also look at another method to determine if the stock price is reasonable or not.

I will continue to publish my list of stocks each month to check on the stock price relative to the historical dividend yield. I will only talk about dividend yield testing for a stock if for some reason this testing does not apply to a stock.

By this new schedule, I am hoping to save time for other things.

On my other blog I am today writing about Methanex Corp. (TSX-MX, NASDAQ-MEOH) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Dividend Paying Stocks

This is an interesting article I found at Advice for Investors. It says a study shows that from 1900 to 2005, dividends produced 90 per cent of the returns of investors worldwide. It says that this study suggests that investors should pay as much attention to cash dividends as they do to earnings.

This article goes on to talk about how companies may fudge their earnings in order to match analyst's estimates. But you cannot fudge paying dividends in cash.

On my other blog I am today writing Stantec Inc. (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN).. learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Money Show 2015 - Derek Foster

Derek Foster was the last speaker I listen to at the Money Show for 2015. His talk was called "The Lazy Idiot Approach to Investing."

He read the Wealth Barber when he started to invest. He first got into Mutual Funds - Templeton Growth Fund. In that fund $10,000 would grow to 2M. However Warren Buffet in the same time period went from $10,000 to 5M. Why the difference? The answer to this is fees.

He put his life savings at 19 into this fund at $24 a Share, one year later it was $12 a share and then $6 and he bought more and lost. He sold off this investment. He read Peter Lynch who said that it was best to buy dividend stock achievers of Moody. He said you can plant a tree and when it grows you can chop it down for firewood or you can let it continue to grow and collect the fruit each year.

Most of Moody's dividend achievers grow their dividend each year. Colgate has given dividends for 117 years since 1989. For the last 54 years, it has increased their dividend each year. Invest in companies that are recession proof. Colgate and Crest (P&G) are the two biggest names in tooth paste and they have been so for a long time. This is a wonderful business.

How much do you need to stop working? The way you should think is in terms of income. What are your expenses? Your biggest expense is probably taxes. You can earn $50,000 in dividends and pay no tax. Also, if you do not work you do not pay CPP or IE.

Buy recession proof companies that are dominate in their field. There are 3 factors to look at: Rate of Return, How much you have to invest and time. If you are young you have time.

Grace Groner paid $180 for 3 shares of Abbott Laboratories in 1935. She never sold a share and reinvested all her dividends. She died in 2010 and left an estate of $7M. See her story is here. There is also an interesting take on this stock at Financial Uproar.

One thing to remember is that it is important to pay a good price for your stocks. If you want to pay $45 for a stock, sell an option to buy the stock for $45 and get a $1 premium. This is the only type of options he uses.

A stock he recommends is Visa (NYSE: V). Visa does not give you a card, your bank does. The bank pays Visa to issue the card. Visa gets a small cut on each transaction. The Bank charges interest and if you default, the bank is on the hook.

Derek Foster has written several books. He writes his books based on what questions people email him.

On my other blog I am today writing about Colliers International Group Inc. (TSX-CIG, NASDAQ-CIGI)... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Money Show 2015 - John Stephenson

John Stephenson was the next speaker I listen to at the Money Show for 2015. His talk was called "It's Been Interesting."

Today's markets are hard because they keep changing. There was an 18% move in oil at the end of August. There are large moves over short periods. There is an uncertain outlook globally. It is going to be challenging for Canadians. Global Growth is going to be low.

People are very uncertain about China. China says they are growing at 7%. Some people think the figure is much lower. Some people think that the growth in China is negative. He believes that a negative growth is going too low.

Canadians should be investing in the US market as it is a better market currently for Canadians. The markets globally have sold off over growth concerns.

The next thing is the Federal Reserve Interest Rate going up. Russia's market is a dead cat bounce. Japan is printing money. Europe is an interesting place to invest.

The problem with the world is people. There was strong growth in labor in the 1980's and 1990's with women going into the workforce. Japan would be better off if it allows women into the workforce. There are declining women in their workforce. The male participation rate is declining. The problem is that if you pay people to doing nothing, they will do so.

The working age population is declining. We are getting older and productivity is down. He does not see tech helping with productivity in the future. We are going to have slower growth in the future.

Below replacement level fertility rates is the norm globally. The fertility rate is 1.7 in the G7 and 1.9 in developing countries.

Canada is second to Australia in immigration. Immigrants are top engineers and scientist. They speak English because lots of countries have education in English. Google and Facebook are opening offices in Canada because they cannot get the people they need into the US.

The millennials were born from 1980 to 2000 and are 15 to 30. They are the bright spot, but these people feel entitled. They are the second largest cohort in the US at 80M. Millennials are now the biggest generation in the Canadian workforce. They are the Seinfeld Nation and are having a big impact on the US economy. They have no mortgage, no car, no spouse and no children. They spend more money in restaurants than in grocery stores.

The Chinese GDP is skewered towards investments. 20% of the investment is in roads and bridges. 47% is in infrastructure. But they have ghost cities and bridges to nowhere and all this is being financed by debt.

The commodity forecast is that it is not much of a super cycle. US rigs are in decline and also crude is in decline. Tech has allowed the US to pull oil out of the ground that they have known about for a long time. The US is still a huge consumer of oil at 22% of world's oil production, so they will still import oil.

Saudi Arabia was built on oil. The falling price of oil slams on the breaks for US shale production. The world is slowly coming into some balance in oil. Also, Iran's oil is coming online. For energy stocks, the worst is probably over. Oil reserves are declining worldwide, so we still need Canadian oil sands.

Score Cards: The best opportunities will have slow growth. Consumer discretionary will have good growth going forward. Electricity utilities are now ok but not so in the future. Old and new tech is fine, like IBM Facebook and Netflix. The millennials are on the phone all the time. Health care is an area of interest. US banks are cheap and Canadian banks are attractive. China is slowing, but the question is how much. Material stocks should be avoided, but oil is ok.

We have a very slow recovery. We are not likely to have a recession or a bear market anytime soon. Markets are not cheap, but they are not outrageously expensive either. Real estate is expensive.

Consumer discretionary will be the first place to get hit. Enbridge with a 4% yield is risky. Bonds are 2% without risk. These are government bonds with no risk. Normally government bonds have 6% rates. If bond interest goes up, people will prefer bonds of no risk and Enbridge's stock price will fall.

Canada is a follower. The US will raise rates and we will follow. The US can go alone and raise rates. They will not raise them to normal levels anytime soon. It may take decades to get back to normal interest rates.

The Liberals are better for the stock market as is the Democrats. He is bullish on US and Mexico. He thinks European stocks are good, both industrial and financial.

On my other blog I am today writing about The Keg Royalties Income Fund (TSX-KEG.UN, OTC-KRIUF) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Update Notes 2

When I review stock price and dividends each month, I also take the opportunity to look at a bit closer at some of the stocks I cover. These some of the stocks I looked at more closely.

Le Chateau Inc. (TSX-CTU.A, OTC- LCUAF)

This stock continues to decline. The most recent news I can find is from Stock House and its article is dated September 2015 and it talks about the second quarterly results with sales declining by some 7.3%.

Smart REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF)

Last month, for whatever reason, I found that so many sites have not updated to the new name. This did not occur this month, so I guess everyone is one board with the name change now.

The company announced the change on July 6, 2015 and said they expected the change to be effective July 8, 2015. For their website, you get the same one whether you go to callowayreit.com or smartreit.ca. However, the usual way websites work is that if there is a name change, the address on the browser changes to the correct one when you enter an address. In this case the web address says either as callowayreit.com or smartreit.ca.

Teck Resources Ltd (TSX-TCK, NYSE-TCK)

In a news release dated November 17, 2015 Teck Resources announced that they will decrease their dividends. In response to persistent low commodity prices, Teck is implementing additional measures to reduce costs and conserve capital and reducing the dividend is one of the things the company is doing.

Wajax Corp. (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF)

This company is down almost 50% in 2015. This article by Casey McCarthy in Financial Magazine only talks about the decline in the company using technical analysts. However, the company has problems in decreasing Revenue, Earnings, Dividends and Cash Flow for 2015.

This November article in Dakota Financial News talks about Director Robert P. Dexter purchasing 10,000 shares at an average cost of C$17.54 per share and for a total transaction of C$175,400.00. So this is a positive for the company.

Wajax Corp. (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF)

This company is down almost 60% in 2015. Shares plunged a month ago because the company missed Q3 revenue estimate and cut the dividend. In this article by Eric Jhonsa in Seeking Alpha Jhonsa talks about the company making a licensing deal with Industrial equipment maker Crane.

On my other blog I am today writing about First Capital Realty (TSX-FCR, OTC-FCRGF) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Update Notes

When I review stock price and dividends each month, I also take the opportunity to look at a bit closer at some of the stocks I cover. These some of the stocks I looked at more closely. Also note my spreadsheet shows dividends that have declared. Most of the dividend increases are for 2016.

Automodular Corp. (TSX-AM.H, OTC-AMZKF)

The stock price has gone down a bit. They had their third quarterly results published. This showed no revenue and a $0.02 loss. It seems like they have not yet found something to do.

Bombardier Inc. (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF)

Andrew Walker of Motley Fool says that 2016 could be a turnaround year if this company hits some key targets. (Do not forget if you do not get the full article when you click on the link above, if you then use your browser's arrows to go out and back into Motley Fool site, you will get the full article.)

Husky Energy Inc. (TSX-HSE, OTC-HUSKF)

Both the TD Bank and G&M say that the dividend has decreased from $1.20 to $1.18. I cannot find any evidence of that. However, the company announced that future dividends will be paid in shares and not cash. I got cash for my October 2015 dividend. The announcement from Husky said that its dividend would be maintained.

There is an article at Seeking Alpha about this.

Russel Metals Inc. (TSX-RUS, OTC- RUSMF)

This company is down substantially this year at almost 37%. I went looking for information on this stock. There is an article on Moody's which talks about downgrading their Senior Notes to negative from stable to reflect the recent substantial deterioration in its operating results and credit metrics and the expectation they will remain weak over the next 12 to 18 months.

There is also a recent article posted by Seth Barnet on WKRB about Director John Russell Tulloch buying 2,000 shares of the company's stock at $18.89 per share.

TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NYSE-TAC)

I have had this company since 1987. I have been worried about it for a while. I was recently at the Money Show in Toronto and one speaker said that TransAlta has been destroying shareholder value for the last 15 years. This is a bit harsh. But they did reduce their dividend by some 38% in 2015 as they are having problems.

There is an article by Nelson Smith of Motley Fool where he talks about three reasons why he bought this company recently.

Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC- ESVIF)

This stock is down by around 33% this year. There is an November 2015 article in Dakota Financial News of Director Thomas Joseph Connors acquiring 37,300 shares of the stock at an average cost of C$7.16 per share and with a total value of C$267,068.00.

There is a recent article by Geoffrey Morgan in the Financial Post talking about how the oil patch is learning to live within its means. This article includes some discussion on this company.

On my other blog I am today writing about DHX Media Ltd. (TSX-DHX.B, OTC- DHXMF) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Something to Buy December 2015

There is always something to buy in the stock market. On Monday, I put out a list of the stocks that I covered and showed what stock might be a good deal based on dividend yield. Now I am trying to categorize what sorts of stocks may be a good deal based on dividend yield.

The advantages to using dividend yield to judge how cheap or expensive a stock is, is that you are not using estimates or old data (like last reported quarter's data). You are using today's stock price and today's dividend yield.

For other testing, like using P/E Ratios and Price/Graham Price Ratios, you use EPS estimates or from the last reported financial quarter. When using P/S Ratios, P/CF Ratios or P/BV Ratios you are using data from the last reported financial quarter.

However, no system is perfect. But if you are interested in buy a stock a list of stocks cheap or reasonable using dividend yield data might be a good place to start.

Categorizing stocks is not as simple as it might seem. Every site you go to has categorized stocks a bit differently. I try to keep this as simple as possible. See my spreadsheet here to see what stocks are showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr). As in other spreadsheets, you can highlight a line or a number of lines for better viewing.

In the following notes I am only going to list stocks showing as cheap using the historical high dividend yields (P/Hi) and historical median dividend yields (P/Med).

I follow 19 stocks in the consumer discretionary category. Of these stocks, only Dorel Industries (TSX-DII.B) is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Seven (or 37%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are the one stock previously named and Canadian Tire Corporation (TSX-CTC.A); High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF); Leon's Furniture (TSX-LNF); Magna International Inc. (TSX-MG), Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. (TSX-RET.A) and Thomson Reuters Corp (TSX-TRI). Last month 9 companies were showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield.

I follow 10 Consumer Staples stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks (or 20%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These are Jean Coutu Group Inc. (TSX-PJC.A) and Loblaw Companies (TSX-L). This is the same as for last month.

I only follow two Health Care stocks and both are US stocks. They are both cheap by the historical median dividend yield. The stocks are Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) and Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). This is the same as for last month.

I follow 12 Real Estate stocks. Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD) is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks (or 33%) are showing cheap historical median dividend yield. They are Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN); FirstService Corp (TSX-FSV), Granite Real Estate (TSX-GRT.UN) and Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD).

I follow 6 Bank stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks (or .67%) are showing cheap by the historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS); National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA); Royal Bank (TSX-RY) and Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD). Barclays PLC (NYSE-BCS) is no longer cheap by the historical median dividend yield.

I follow 12 Financial Service stocks. One is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield and that is Home Capital Group. Eight (or 67%) stocks are showing cheap by the historical median dividend yield. These stocks are AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B); CI Financial (TSX-CIX); DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI); Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS); Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG); IGM Financial (TSX-IGM); Power Corp (TSX-POW) and TMX Group Ltd. (TSX-X). There is no change from last month.

I follow 5 Insurance stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks (or 80%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Great-West Lifeco Inc. (TSX-GWO); Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC); Power Financial Corp (TSX-PWF) and Sun Life Financial (TSX-SLF). There is no change from last month.

I follow 34 Industrial stocks. Two are now showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield (or 6%). These stocks are Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT) and Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (TSX-HPS.A). Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI) is no longer showing cheap.

Twelve Industrial stocks (or 35%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Ag Growth International (TSX-AFN); Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR); Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT); Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (TSX-HPS.A); HNZ Group Inc. (TSX-HNZ.A); Mullen Group (TSX-MTL); Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI); Pulse Seismic Inc. (TSX-PSD). Russel Metals (TSX-RUS); SNC-Lavalin (TSX-SNC); Toromont Industries Ltd. (TSX-TIH) and Transcontinental Inc. (TSX-TCL.A). Pulse Seismic Inc. is new to this list.

I follow 8 Tech stocks. One is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield and it is Calian Technologies Ltd. (TSX-CTY). Three stocks (or 38%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT); Calian Technologies Ltd (TSX-CTY) and Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET). This has not changed from last month.

I follow 10 Energy stocks. Four Stocks or (40%) are showing as cheap by the historical high dividend yield. They are Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ); Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI); Husky Energy (TSX-HSE) and Suncor Energy (TSX-SU). There are six stocks (or 60%) showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are the four above and Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE) and Encana Corp (TSX-ECA). This has not changed from last month.

I follow 2 Material stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. It is also the only one that is cheap by historical median dividend yield and that is Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX-TCK.B). The change is that Teck is no longer cheap by historically high dividend yields.

I follow 8 of the infrastructure type utility companies. None are showing as cheap by historical high dividend yield. Four stocks (or 50%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA); TransCanada Corp (TSX-TRP) TransCanada Corp (TSX-TRP) and Veresen Inc. (TSX-VSN). TransCanada Corp is new to this list this month.

I follow 12 of the power type utility companies. One is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield and that is TransAlta Corp. Three stock (or 25%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are the one above plus ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X) and Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS). This has not changed since last month.

I follow 5 of the Telecom Service type utility companies. No stock is showing cheap by the historical high dividend yield. Three stocks (or 60%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are BCE (TSX-BCE); Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B); and WiLan Inc. (TSX-WIN).

On my other blog I am today writing about WiLan Inc. (TSX-WIN, OTC-WILN) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Dividend Stocks December 2015

The theory is that you should use the dividend yield to see if a dividend stock is selling at a stock price that is relatively cheap. A stock price is considered cheap if it is selling at a dividend yield higher than the historical high yield or higher than the historical average yield or historical median yield. See my spreadsheet at dividend growth stocks that I just updated for December 2015.

On this list,

• I have 11 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
• I have 49 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield
• I have 65 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical median dividend yield and
• 64 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.

When I did my list last month,

• I have 12 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
• I have 47 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield
• I have 64 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical median dividend yield and
• 61 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.

When I did my list in January 2014,

• I had 9 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
• I had 45 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield and
• 39 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.

If you had one share of each stock, total dividends last month would be $143.73. This month dividends would be $144.54. Of the stock that I follow 13 stocks has raised their dividends since last month. Dividends raises are denoted in green. Those stocks are

Alimentation Couche-Tard (TSX-ATD.B, OTC- ANCUF)
Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO)
Canadian Tire Corporation(TSX-CTC.A, OTC- CDNAF)
Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB)
Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC- EQGPF)

Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC- GFELF)
Inter Pipeline Ltd. (TSX IPL, OTC- IPPLF)
Keg Royalties Income Fund (TSX-KEG.UN, OTC- KRIUF)
Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP)
National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC- NTIOF)

Sun Life Financial (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF)
Telus (TSX-T, NYSE-TU)
Valener Inc. (TSX-VNR, OTC- VNRCF)

Of the stock that I follow 2 stocks have decreased their dividends. Those stocks are Teck Resources Ltd (TSX-TCK.B, NYSE-TCK) and WiLan Inc. (TSX-WIN, NASDAQ-WILN). Also Husky Energy Inc. (TSX-HSE, OTC-HUSKF) had said they will only pay dividends in shares now.

I am showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr). See these fields on the right side of the file. You can highlight a particular stock using your cursor to highlight the appropriate line.

There are always some stocks to buy because they are priced reasonably. There are always stocks to currently avoid because they are overpriced. Looking at dividend growth stocks that are selling at stock prices that give them a dividend yield above the historical median dividend yield are probably the best bet.

The stocks that are selling at prices that give them a dividend yield above the historical high yield could be good stocks to buy. However, these stocks may be selling so cheap because of current troubles, especially financial troubles and should be treated with caution. Do not forget that I have all the stocks I follow on this spreadsheet and some are much better investments than others.

You should always investigate a stock before you buy. Sometimes different stocks in certain sectors are just out of favour or the stock market is just in one of its declines. However, a stock may be relatively cheap because it has problems. That is why you should always investigate a stock before buying.

Looking at stock this way is equivalent to a stock filter. A main problem I know of is for the old income trusts. These companies have generally lowered their dividend yields forever and they will probably never get back to the old dividend yield highs they made as an income trust company. For these stocks, you might be better comparing the current dividend yield to the 5 year median dividend yield.

Also, on some stocks I have a lot more information years in my spreadsheets than for other stocks. So, finding a stock on the list as "cheap" is only the first step in finding a stock to buy. This is the same with any other sort of stock filters that you can use.

The last thing to remember is that I have entering figures into a spreadsheet. I could put them in incorrectly, I can transpose figures and I can misread figures. This is another great reason why you should check a stock out before investing. As this is just a filter, it works better on some stocks than on others.

See my entry on my methodology in establishing the historical dividend yield highs and lows for the stocks that I cover. I have an entry on my introduction to Dividend Growth. You might want to look at my original entry on Dividend Growth Stocks. I have also written about why I like Dividend Growth companies.

On my other blog I am today writing about Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Money Show 2015 - Albrecht Weller

I next attended a mini session by Albrecht Weller of Schwaben Capital Group. This talk was called "How to beat the TSX and S&P 500 by more than 5%".

How to make money in the market is to make fewer mistakes than the next guy. You need to make fewer mistakes than the market. Stock picking is a loser's game. What you need is risk control. You need to use common sense. The downside of buying stocks is that has a 50% drop is that you will need a 100% gain to get back to where you were. Does this make sense?

Try to avoid the mistakes of others. Investment gain is 90% perspiration, 8% luck and 2% genius. Good business means common sense. If you do not understand the business, do not invest.

What is want is investment growth. For this you need Revenue growth and EPS growth. But do not let revenue or earnings growth fool you. For example, if the number of shares is growing, you may get high Revenue growth, but not Revenue per Share growth.

Look for companies with growing dividends. You want companies that pay you to hold their stocks. Growth gives you a hedge against higher interest rates. (When the US raises interest rates, we have to do in Canada or the CDN$ will decline.

Mr. Market can misprice a stock. You could have rising revenues and earnings, but a declining stock price. The reasons could be a decline in the company or a mispricing by Mr. Market. You do not want to take active bets, but you want to take passive bets.

On my other blog I am today writing about Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX-INE, OTC-INGXF) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Money Show 2015 - Alex Koyfman

The next session I went to Alex Koyfman of Penny Stock Millionaire was the speaker. His talk was called "Three Risk-Managed High-Potential Microcap Stocks to Own in 2016". He has 3 companies to consider for 2016. They are tech oriented, pre-profitable and have market caps under $50M.

The first company is MCW Energy Group (TSX: MCW-X, OTC: MCWEF) and it helps in environment and use of resources. The company cleans sand and gets the oil. It then returns clean sand back to the environment. The share price is currently $0.67. He sold at $1.02 and then rebought it at $0.67.

There are no negative side effects. It is proprietary tech and it is environment friendly. It does small oil processing now but will be scaling it up. 98% of bitumen is extracted from oil sands. It has 99.5% solvent recycling efficiency.

Dr. Bailey is a real Texas oil man. Alex Blyumkin is chairman of the board. In October 2014 they unveiled an initial extraction plant in Utah. In February 2015 they had net income of $2.2M and are losing less and less money. In September 2015, MCW awaits the completion of global financial institution's tech feasibility.

They have done work in China. China has bigger oil sands than we do. He recommends this stock under $1.00. Their web site is www.mcwenergygroup.com/.

The next company was Versus Technology Inc. (OTC: VSTI). They are trying to revolutionize how hospitals work. It is a dark stock and high risk. They are using RFID chips down to the smallest items in hospitals. Hospitals lose lots of stuff all the time due to organizational problems. It is also used for infection tracking and control. It can track things from patient 0 and know who all had contact. The decrease in loss of says ID pumps all add up.

Being a dark company means that they do not need to do quarterly reporting. You should buy under $0.17. The RDIF's are the size of a gain of rice. Its web site is www.versustech.com/.

The third company was Contagious Gaming Inc. The symbols are TSX V: CNS and OTC: KSMRF. It has online sports betting and electronic lotteries. It offers full services. It is a medium risk and share price is currently at $0.20. You should buy under $0.45.

Its growth drivers are a worldwide market, Soccer betting and the Grey market. For both online and land base betting Europe is further ahead than North America in allowing and doing online betting. Their web site is www.contagiousgaming.com/.

Most Canadian companies are listed on the OTC. In Buying Micro stocks, be prepared to lose it all. In looking at Canadian versus US trading, the Canadian listing is more liquid. That is the stock is more actively traded on the Canadian exchange. These stocks are harder to buy for American, but now they have available Penntract. (I tried to find this online, but unsuccessfully.) They have a Live Broker Option. The OTC analogue is in US$, so you will see lower prices due to USD/CAD exchange rates.

In regards to MCW Energy Group, oil was $28 a barrel but now costs around $22. If they do not get funding they are done for. However, there is 80 to 90% chance they will get funding. The process returns only water and sand back to the environment. There is zero net loss of water.

Email address for Alex Koyfman is Aukoyfman@gmail.com . His web site is www.angelpub.com/.

On my other blog I am today writing about Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX-INE, OTC-INGXF) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Money Show 2015 - Rehman Moledina

The next session I went to was a talk by Rehman Moledina, whose talk was called "Why Wall Street Makes Money and You Don't". The sponsor of this talk was Online Trading Academy.

There is a retail mind set and an institution mindset. The retail uses fundamental analysis and tech and mechanical analysis. We do not have market makers in Canada, because Canada is too small. Retail trades on a website. Institutions trade direct with wholesalers in Canada. It is the second highest paid job, only athletes make more.

Fundamental analysis is not worth your time. Someone a lot smarter than you has already done this. What you should do is find the smart money on a chart. Trading is not about money but about time. Are you here to make money? No. You are here to learn how not to lose money. To live or survive is about not losing money. Money makes itself.

What retail investors do wrong.

1. They make decisions on Fundaments.
2. They use brokers to manager money.
3. They do not understand Retirement plans.
4. They believe OAS/CPP will support them.
5. They invest in Mutual Funds. These are not good investment vehicles. They have large fees and other fees. 62% of your entire account will be eaten up over 30 years.
6. Investors do not understand fees.
7. They have no plan for a down market.
8. They are not properly diversified.
9. They use Buy and Hold. Buy at any price and hold with no plan for gain or loss.

Most people never achieve their financial goals. Why? They think like and act like retail traders and investors. The financial system is made up to two groups.

Institutions and Banks	Retail traders/investors
Very Profitable	Struggles for profit or loss
They are selling	When buying
They are buying	When selling
Buy low and sell high	Buy high and sell low

Both are playing by different rules, but they are playing the same game. They higher the price of stocks makes people will buy stock. The lower the price of stocks, people will sell stock. If a TV is on sale, you will buy. But we do not do that with stocks. Market tops because of exhaustion of buyers. The lows occur because of exhaustion of sellers.

There are two types of orders in any market. There are Buy orders and Sell orders. An order can either be filled or unfilled. What causes prices to move are unfilled orders.

Stocks are not on sale when prices go up. So if prices have gone up do not buy. Buying is the wrong trade. So, you want to be on the opposite side of the wrong trade. The problem institutions have is that they have too much money. It is easier to buy 100 shares than 600,000 shares. Trading is all about supply and demand.

On my other blog I am today writing about Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Money Show 2015 - Stock Whisperer

he next session I went to was run by Stefanie Kammerman, The Stock Whisperer. She says she does old fashion trading in a high tech world. Her site is here. She runs a Trading Boot Camp.

She says you start first with the psychological. She says you should start with paper trading before you use money. She used to have an overnight trading system, but now does day trading. She gave top reasons why traders fail.

1. The first reason has to do with no exit strategy. You need exits. One is stop-loss. You should be prepared to lose each day. You also need a target exit. You should control the trade, not let the trade controlling you. You should scale into and out of stock. This gives you more room to run. You can get out of half of your stock, then half again.


2. The next point was to watch your P & L., but do not stare at your money.


3. The third point is timing. If timing is off you may feel you over traded.


4. The next point is about chasing a stock. If you miss your entry point, do not take the trade.


5. The next point is about a lack of confidence. If you freeze in action, like a buy, you are not ready to trade yet. You cannot trade if you have money pressure.


6. Point 6 is lack of education. You have to know the difference between a gambler and a successful trader. You trade on the high probability of a successful trade.


7. Point 7 is about self-sabotage and the fear of success. You do great all week, but on Friday you get into a trade that you should not have and lose what you have earned all week.

On the Stock Whisperer site there is the Hot Stock of the day. Go to the website and get the video for free. You should be prepared to succeed every day. Exercise and eat a healthy breakfast.

1. What you want is


1. A stock that trades 100,000 shares before the market is open.


2. You want to trade stocks that have volume.


3. You want stocks that have momentum. It does if it trades before the market opens.


4. . If a stock pops up in the morning with no volume, it will drop like a rock later.


5. Trade stocks worth less than $40 a share.


2. The first reason has to do with no exit strategy. You need exits. One is stop-loss. You should be prepared to lose each day. You also need a target exit. You should control the trade, not let the trade controlling you. You should scale into and out of stock. This gives you more room to run. You can get out of half of your stock, then half again.


3. The next point was to watch your P & L., but do not stare at your money.


4. The third point is timing. If timing is off you may feel you over traded.


5. The next point is about chasing a stock. If you miss your entry point, do not take the trade.


6. The next point is about a lack of confidence. If you freeze in action, like a buy, you are not ready to trade yet. You cannot trade if you have money pressure.


7. Point 6 is lack of education. You have to know the difference between a gambler and a successful trader. You trade on the high probability of a successful trade.


8. Point 7 is about self-sabotage and the fear of success. You do great all week, but on Friday you get into a trade that you should not have and lose what you have earned all week.

On my other blog I am today writing about Keyera Corp. (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Money Show 2015 - Motley Fool

The next session I went to at the Money Show was the talk by Iain Butler of Motley Fool. His talk was called "Investing Foolishly in the Canadian Market". I found him a rather poor speaker. The Motley Fool site is here

The first company he talked about was Sandvine Corp. (TSX-SVC) is a Waterloo-based technology company. The cash flow is over $0.20 a share. He thinks that over the next decade this company could do great. It is a best buy now.

Another company he talked about was The Howard Hughes Corp. (NYSE-HHC). It is a Dallas company building planned communities.

He said the difference in the TSX and the S&P500 is that the TSX has little tech or healthcare and the S&P500 has lots. Another problem with the TSX is that it is mostly resource.

He also likes Finning International (TSX-FTT). He says in good times, this company has cash tied up in dealers' equipment. In bad times, it has more cash on hand because dealers need less stock on hand.

He says that the Motley Fool never looks at target prices. They want to recommend companies that will be worth more in 5 years' time. He also thinks it is worthwhile for Canadians to buy an ETF on the S&P500. The Motley Fool is a big fan of dividend paying stocks. He thinks Sandvine Corp is a great value play. He does not like companies with financial risks.

On my other blog I am today writing about Encana Corp. (TSX-ECA, NYSE-ECA) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Money Show 2015 - FinTech

I went to the FinTech investing Symposium. I am interested in this as I believe that the financial world is going to go through big changes in the future. The Host was Adam Najee, head of Financial Technology, MaRS Discovery District.

Mars FinTech is the 6th largest in the world as a FinTech hub. London's FinTech hub has 600 startups, New York has around 500 startups and Toronto has around 100 startups.

I have notes on the first two items in this Symposium. One is around Crowdfunding in real estate and the other is about Robo Advisers for financial planning.

Hitesh Rathod, CEO Nexus Crowd Inc.

Canada has the Nexus Crowd for crowd funding. A minimum investment is $10.000. This is for crowdfunding in Real Estate.

There is donation and rewards based crowdfunding. There is securities based crowdfunding (of equity or debt). There is global crowdfunding of securities and real estate. Real Estate crowd fund is $2.6B and growing. This is because of the high rate of return in the 15% to 25% range. There is a higher margin for commercial Real Estate than for residential Real Estate. These sorts of investments have not been available to individuals in the past.

There is 175 Real Estate crowdfundings in the US. In Canada there is only Nexus Crowdfunding. It is registered in Ontario. Private funding does not have to do regular quarterly reporting. The platform you invest in must provide financial reporting. Nexus has deals that are already 50% funded. They try for investments that are no longer than 5 years.

Algorithmic Investing: Meet the Bright Minds Behind the Revolution
Moderator: Pat Bolland, Former Co-Host, Sun News Network
Panel: Randy Cass, Founder, Nest Wealth, Mike Katchen, CEO, Wealth Simple

Cass: Nest Wealth uses Robo Advising. Tech removes emotional investing. It is sophisticated investing at low cost. It involves both tech and humans.

Katchen: Wealth Simple is Robo Advising. The company has an easy dashboard. It is built for young investors. They provide good services at good cost. Canada has some of the highest fees in the world.

Cass: Nest Wealth is looking at older wealthier clients.

Katchen: Wealth Simple is looking for younger clients. Clients with $10,000 and they will grow with their customers.

Cass: Nest Wealth uses iShares and cheap ETFs picked by asset classes.

Katchen: Wealth Simple also uses asset allocations. For this company you can sign up via a mobile app.

Cass: Nest Wealth uses banks to hold securities. They are considered to be fund managers and must invest in the best interest of clients.

Katchen: Wealth Simple uses algorithms to get best return based on risk level of investor. They use algorithms for investing and handling tax losses.

Cass: With Nest Wealth, 10 questions over 5 minutes and best practices will get you a portfolio.

Katchen: Wealth Simple does not do short term investing. If, for example, an investor wants to invest for 3 years, they will tell them to go to a bank and get a GIC. Wealth Simple is connected to Power Financial. Power Financial has a minority stake in Wealth Simple. They have 3,000 clients and are growing at 10% per week after 1 year in business.

Cass: Nest Wealth will not disclose client information. They have 500 advisors in the US and 12 in Canada. They started later in Canada. Banks are slow to change because they are making too much money the way things are now.

Katchen: Wealth Simple's algorithm was built internally.

Cass: Nest Wealth uses other people's algorithms. Active management Mutual Funds are expensive. Most of the Bank's Mutual Funds are like ETFs. Nest Wealth would like to eliminate Mutual Funds with fees over 2%.

Katchen: Wealth Simple does rebalancing and not whole sale changes. Clients cannot change their risk profile easily.

Cass: Nest Wealth feels that timing the market does not work. They never try to predict the market. Clients can change risk profile, but would need to have a conversation with an advisor.

Katchen: Wealth Simple does threshold and annual rebalancing.

Cass: Nest Wealth feels that there are massive changes coming to Financial Planning. People will get low financial management fees.

On my other blog I am today writing about CCL Industries Inc. (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Money Show 2015 - ETFs

The next item at the Opening Ceremonies of the Money Show for 2015 was an ETF Panel. This panel was called "Building an Effective Global Portfolio Using ETFs". Pat Dunwoody, Executive Director of Canadian ETF Association was the Moderator. The Panel was Ted Bader , National Sales Manager, National Accounts, SIA Wealth; Pat Chiefaio, Managing Director, iShares and Alfred Lee Portfolio Manager, BMO Assets Management Inc.

The message is that it is a good time to use global EFTs.

Lee: BMO has 69 ETFs. If you pay a fee, they will tell you have to manage an ETF Global Portfolio.

Chiefaio: Most goods we use are not Canadian. The iShares site has 4 models for investing globally with their ETFs

Bader: There is less co-relations worldwide. It is best to do a top down approach to investing with Global ETFs. We all have a home country bias. There are tools on ETF sites to help you invest.

Chiefaio: ETFs are the most efficient way to access markets. There are different ETFs to access some markets.

Lee: There are tool kits for individuals because of ETFs in the same ways as there are tool kits for institutions. About 97% of the time active management underperforms indexes. Some ETFs have currency hedging.

Bader: You do have a tool kits and you can put them into practice without help. ETFs are how you protect yourself from the next bear market. Why you buy ETFs is to take the risk out of buying individual stocks. ETFs are a low cost way to buy a stock portfolio. You have liquidity, low cost and transparency.

Chiefaio: Takes depend on the underlining items on an ETF. You can day trade ETFs, but it depends on the ETF. ETFs trade at NAV and not necessarily the bid/ask price.

Bader: Buy US ETFs if you think the US is going to outperform other markets.

I believe that I only got part of this panel discussion. I am not really interested in EFTs, but I know a lot of people are. What surprised me what the comments that ETFs trade at NAV (i.e. Net Asset Value), not at buy/ask price.

On my other blog I am today writing about Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Money Show 2015 - Globe and Mail

The next item at the Opening Ceremonies of the Money Show for 2015 was a Globe and Mail Panel. This panel was called "What Investors Need to Know Right Now". Scott Barlow, Market Strategist; Rob Carrick, Portfolio Strategies Columnist and Jennifer Dowty, Equities Analysts were on the panel.

Scott: What new investors should be in are stable companies with steady and stable cash flows over a long term period. These will outperform in a financial crisis. These are good companies that are Blue Chip. Why you should look for stable long term cash flow is because cash flow does not lie.

Jennifer: Investing takes time. You should stagger investments. You should always have an exit strategy. Know what down side risk that you are willing to stand. You want companies for which analysts are revising estimates up. You want companies that are diversified, that is has lots of customers. Look at fundamentals and the management team.

She gave a site of www.sedi.ca to check insider information, but I must admit when I looked at this side I found it hard to use and not useful at all. I have access to INK Reports and I have no trouble finding information on these reports.

She says what you should be looking for is whether insiders are accumulating or selling shares. She says that you should use technical analysis to determine when to get into or out of a stock.

Question: What about Cash as a Portfolio Allocation?

Scott: Cash is like a put option on the market. Warren Buffet has currently lots of cash. This is even true when interest on cash is just 60 basis points.

Jennifer: Cash is something that investors should consider. Cash is the outperforming investment this year.

Rob: Online Brokerages is so cheap, so you can buy investments in small bits. Use Investment Savings Accounts in your trading account.

Scott: Do you look at cheap trading as the ability to trade more. This is a mistake. Do not trade too much. Overtrading is a mistake.

Question: Is it a stock pickers market?

Rob: Currently Mutual Funds are outperforming the market.

Scott: It is not a stock pickers market. Active management tends to outperform in down markets. It is a macro driven market, this are themes.

Jennifer: Thinks it is a stock pickers market. It is a broad based market.

Question: Is there is also a bond bubble?

Rob: The Fed will raise interest rates.

Scott: China is selling US treasuries. They are selling a lot of them but it is having no effect on the market. Going for yield is not a good thing in the long term. A lot of shale oil companies cannot pay interest on their debts. There is no bond bubble

Jennifer: What you should have is dividend stocks and a few bonds. Dividend stocks are not necessarily safe. Dividends on oil companies are in decline. Even bank stocks have risk. Royal Bank (TSX-RY) is down.

Scott: The higher the yield the higher the risk. Do not chase dividends.

Jennifer: Higher yields are not higher risk. It depends on the company. For example REITs have higher yields but are not risker. Look at the companies.

Scott: Utilities and telecoms etc. are sensitive to interest rates and he does not think that they will climb much.

Question: Diversification: What does it look like today? (60 - 40)

Scott: The reason to diversity is to reduce risk. It is better to have bonds and stocks. We could go grinding on or we could do very well. We do not know what will happen.

Jennifer: Age or risk tolerance is what we should take into account re diversification. Have no more than 10% of portfolio in one stock. Diversify by industry and country.

Rob: If you have a defined benefit pension, you should consider it as a bond.

Scott: You should still buy US stocks. We have long periods when the Canadian Market outperforms the US. Now we are into a period when the US will outperform. This will be perhaps for 10 years. He likes tech stocks. Health Care stocks will have a demographic push.

Jennifer: Hold investments outside Canada. Does not see the CDN$ to US$ rebounding in the near term. Canadian market is 30% resources so it will underperform.

Rob: Should we hedge re foreign stock?

Scott: He is not in favour of hedging for individuals. Also Mutual Funds cannot predict currencies so they should stop hedging.

Jennifer: This time there is a lot of fear in the market. There is a market sale going on. When 40% bearish, 40% neutral and 20% bullish, it is a positive indicator. CNR had a break out today. A theme of emails is loss aversion. People do not want to accept a loss. There is the cockroach rule. If there is one there are lots. If a company has a problem, there may be more problems.

Scott: Selling is very difficult. The more exciting the portfolio, the more risk. A portfolio should be boring.

Jennifer: If an investor has a concern, they should email the public relations of the company. You should also listen to the conference call.

On my other blog I am today writing about TransForce Inc. (TSX-TIF, OTC-TFIFF) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Update Notes

When I review stock price and dividends each month, I also take the opportunity to look at a bit closer at some of the stocks I cover. These some of the stocks I looked at more closely.

Bombardier Inc. (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF)

In an article in the Canadian Business Magazine, Ross Marowits of the Canadian Press talks about how Bombardier has not finished initiatives aimed at shoring up the company's financial position. Bombardier has just gotten $1-billion lifeline from the Quebec government

However, not everyone is keen about this move by the Quebec Government. See some comments about this in the Montreal Gazette.

McCoy Global Inc. (TSX-MCB, OTC-MCCRF)

This company has suspended its dividend in the third quarter of 2015 because it is uncertain when oil prices will recover. This company services the oil business. See the September 3, 2015 News Release.

TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NYSE-TAC)

I have had this company since 1987. I have been worried about it for a while. I was recently at the Money Show in Toronto and one speaker said that TransAlta has been destroying shareholder value for the last 15 years. This is a bit harsh. But they did reduce their dividend by some 38% in 2015 as they are having problems.

They do have a strategic plan for move this company forward. Most analysts are rather negative on this stock at present and feel that if you want to invest in the utility sector there are better choices. One analyst said that it will take them 6 months or longer to turn around.

One problem is that they are using coal to generate electricity and most governments and people want this changed. This is probably now a bigger problem with the new NDP government in Alberta.

Smart REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF)

For whatever reason, so many sites have not updated to the new name. I went on the TD site today and they are still calling this stock in Canada as Calloway Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-CWT.UN) although for the for the OTC entry they called this stock Smart REIT. Under another site they call the company Smart REIT but give the old TSX symbol of CWT.UN.

The company announced the change on July 6, 2015 and said they expected the change to be effective July 8, 2015. For their website, you get the same one whether you go to callowayreit.com or smartreit.ca. However, the usual way websites work is that if there is a name change, the address on the browser changes to the correct one when you enter an address. In this case the web address says either as callowayreit.com or smartreit.ca.

You have to wonder what the problem with this change is.

On my other blog I am today writing about TransForce Inc. (TSX-TIF, OTC-TFIFF) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Money Show 2015 - Mark Mills

Mark Mills was the third speaker at the Opening Ceremonies of the Money Show for 2015. His talk was called "Energy and Technology: The Virtuous Circle". He is the founder and CEO of Digital Power Group.

There is long term investing in tech and oil. There is no limit to resources and getting resources is all about tech. There was a big tech change when the MAC computer came out in 1984. There are structural changes going on currently with tech and the internet.

Everyone thinks oil is past because the price of oil is low. We are in the second year of an oil price collapse. Growth has slowed but it has not stopped. The demand for oil has collapsed. We are in the beginning of a serial glut in oil.

You can make pigs fly by pushing them off a cliff, but in the end gravity will matter. Government policies can change things, but only temporarily. We have one billion cars, in the next decade we will have one billion more cars.

Will future cars be run by batteries or oil? Per pound of batteries, a car can go one half mile. It can go 10 times further on a pound of oil fuel. Batteries will get better and they will improve. We might even triple batteries power and get 2 miles per pound of batteries. There is no path to this currently. However, we can triple miles per pound of fuel to get 10 miles per pound. This is currently possible. So, in the future cars will still use oil.

Yes, the Millennials are part of a sharing economy. However, when they get money, they buy cars. The current economy is just slowing them down.

What about the transformation in electricity from solar. If we can raise the temperature for power plans to 75 degrees we would have power plants that are 3% more efficient. If we can do that to all the power plants in America we would get 1000% more electricity than we get from all the solar power plants we now have in North America. Solar arrays will get better, but they will not get better 1000%. So oil is still going to be used in producing electricity.

Google a few years ago tried to make renewals cheaper than oil. They stopped a year and half ago because the google engineers concluded was that they would need new science to do this. It is not tech with renewables that is changing the world. It is shale oil.

Tech has made shale oil possible. This is manufacturing oil from rocks. The US is now the largest swing producer of oil. There are hundreds of companies in the US that can turn oil off and on in a matter of months or weeks. Shale boom began with oil was at $50 a barrel. Today we have better tech, so there will be a boom if oil reaches $55 a barrel.

Other tech will get better. What matters is how much Capex (capital expense) for energy out. The shale oil companies in the US have improved their Capex by around 400% in the last 5 years. This is a rate of increase 3 to5 times fast than all alternative energy technologies. The shale oil companies can do the same over the next 4 to 5 years.

Shale oil now cost $10 to $55 a barrel and if they just double the efficiencies of their rigs they can improve that to $5 to $25 per barrel. This is bullish for the US and is also bullish for Canada, as Canada has a lot of shale oil fields. He is bullish on oil; he is bullish on North America; bullish on the whole technologies sector and bullish on growth.

On my other blog I am today writing about Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Money Show 2015 - Peter Hodson

Peter Hodson was the second speaker at the Opening Ceremonies of the Money Show for 2015. His talk was called "Everything You Need to Know in 25 Minutes". He starts off with saying that with markets there is always something to look at; there is always something going on and there is always something to worry about.

He says that the thing with Doom and Gloom reports that if you keep predicting a crash you will eventually be right. People predict Interest rate panic, Equity Bubbles, Housing Bubblies, they say markets are near and new high and we have an artificial economy. Things do change and when things are bad, stocks are cheap.

For example look at Priceline Group Inc. (NASDAQ-PCLN). After the 9/11 attacks they put together travel packages. Of course at that time no one was ever going to travel again. The stock was priced at $6.60. Today the stock's price is at $1455.00.

A common mistake is saying a stock is too expensive. If a stock is a $1 more than you like pay the $1. Another mistake is gambling. It is a mistake to sell a stock too early. He waits for a pullback. Another mistake is holding on to loser and looking at where a stock has been. What a stock has been is currently irrelevant.

What you should do is buy a great company at a high price, not a mediocre company at a good price. The problem with Bay Street Analysts is that they follow trends and they are conservative. You should ignore their target prices.

There is the 20% rule. You should ignore minor price fluctuations. If there is a big move it that means change. Do not be scared off. Pull the weeds and water the flowers. That is you should sell your losers and keep good companies. A diamond is still a diamond even if it is in the garbage.

Sources of Ideas are too many to list. Looking for new highs is useful, especially if they are with high volumes. Initial dividends are significant statements. Some other places are BNN's Top picks, Canadian Business Magazine, Investor's Daily Business, increasing dividends, rising revenue with rising earnings, companies doing better, Sedar, Seeking Alpha. You should avoid internet chatrooms, newspapers and CNBC.

What you should not do. Do not follow the TSX, do not react, do no panic, do not trade too much and do not over concentrate your portfolio. You should have 20 stocks not 200 stocks in your portfolio. Also ignore target prices. The wealthiest people have concentrated portfolios. You should also sometimes take relatively high bets.

What are the best signals? One of the best is if a company announces its first dividend. Ensure that the dividend is sustainable. High yields are sometimes too good to be true. It is better to start with a small dividend and grow it.

You should look for dividend growth. You should consider payout ratios, debt/equity, interest cover and revenue/earnings growth when evaluating dividend sustainability. Be aware of various ways payout ratios can be calculated.

The Investment industry wants all of your money. They design products to sell. Dealers follow the trends and that is the exactly wrong plan. The fee grab on a $100,000 portfolio growing at 7% for 50 years makes fees of $1.8M. Over 60 years, fees will eat up 69% of your returns.

Leveraged ETFs are the very worst thing you can buy. There are high fees whether you are right or wrong. The GASL (US) ETF had a unit price of $4097 in 2011 and by 2015 the unit price was $28.16.

New closed-end Funds are the second worst thing you can buy. Startup fees are 7% plus. There are ongoing high fees. Usually there is an immediate discount to the NAV. These funds are designed to sell and move on.

Why would you buy Mutual Funds? You pay high fees for below average performance. Any fund that is hot will not stay there. This is a reversion to the mean. Mutual Funds are designed to fail and to keep your money. They are not designed to make you money.

What about Micro Caps? These are stocks with a market cap until $5 to $10M. The cost of a company going public would just eat into your capital. There will be constant dilutions (that is company selling more shares). For the company to go public it will cost around 5% of the value of the company. The odds are stacked against you big time.

Some of the best companies out there are ones that never issued more shares. Examples are Home Capital Group Inc. (TSX-HCG), Constellation Software Inc. (TSX-CSU), Enghouse Systems Ltd. (TSX-ESL), and AirBoss of America Corp. (TSX-BOS). Buy companies that do not use their shares like an ATM.

Consistency counts when you are investing in a company. If they screw-up the company is going to have a lower value. Examples are Sandvine Corp.(TSX-SVC) and WiLan Inc. (TSX-WIN).

They get 36,000 question emails and the biggest question is "Why is my Stock Down 2%?" If you are a long term investor this does not matter. Stocks go sometimes go down and it means nothing. Over a 10 year horizon, what happens today is immaterial.

In summary, you should buy companies in a strong industry; buy growing companies and ones with a competitive edge that can keep their advantage. Buy companies that are well financed, that are able to communicate to investors and have good management that own stock. Get the stock at an attractive valuation and you have a worthwhile investment. What is good amount of insider ownership is 30%.

On my other blog I am today writing about Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Something to Buy November 2015

There is always something to buy in the stock market. On Monday, I put out a list of the stocks that I covered and showed what stock might be a good deal based on dividend yield. Now I am trying to categorize what sorts of stocks may be a good deal based on dividend yield.

The advantages to using dividend yield to judge how cheap or expensive a stock is, is that you are not using estimates or old data (like last reported quarter's data). You are using today's stock price and today's dividend yield.

For other testing, like using P/E Ratios and Price/Graham Price Ratios, you use EPS estimates or from the last reported financial quarter. When using P/S Ratios, P/CF Ratios or P/BV Ratios you are using data from the last reported financial quarter.

However, no system is perfect. But if you are interested in buy a stock a list of stocks cheap or reasonable using dividend yield data might be a good place to start.

Categorizing stocks is not as simple as it might seem. Every site you go to has categorized stocks a bit differently. I try to keep this as simple as possible. See my spreadsheet here to see what stocks are showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr).. As in other spreadsheets, you can highlight a line or a number of lines for better viewing.

In the following notes I am only going to list stocks showing as cheap using the historical high dividend yields (P/Hi) and historical median dividend yields (P/Med).

I follow 19 stocks in the consumer discretionary category. Of these stocks, only Dorel Industries (TSX-DII.B) is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Nine (or 47%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are the one stock previously named and Canadian Tire Corporation (TSX-CTC.A); Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL); High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF); Leon's Furniture (TSX-LNF); Magna International Inc. (TSX-MG0, Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B); Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. (TSX-RET.A) and Thomson Reuters Corp (TSX-TRI).

Note: Showing Le Chateau (TSX-CTU.A) as cheap last month was a mistake.

I follow 10 Consumer Staples stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks (or 20%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These are Jean Coutu Group Inc. (TSX-PJC.A) and Loblaw Companies (TSX-L).

I only follow two Health Care stocks and both are US stocks. They are both cheap by the historical median dividend yield. The stocks are Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) and Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT).

I follow 12 Real Estate stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks (or 33%) are showing cheap historical median dividend yield. They are Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN); FirstService Corp (TSX-FSV), Granite Real Estate (TSX-GRT.UN) and Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD).

I follow 6 Bank stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Five stocks (or 83%) are showing cheap by the historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS); Barclays PLC (NYSE-BCS), National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA); Royal Bank (TSX-RY) and Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD).

I follow 12 Financial Service stocks. One is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield and that is Home Capital Group. Eight (or 67%) stocks are showing cheap by the historical median dividend yield. These stocks are AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B); CI Financial (TSX-CIX); DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI); Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS); Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG); IGM Financial (TSX-IGM); Power Corp (TSX-POW) and TMX Group Ltd. (TSX-X).

I follow 5 Insurance stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks (or 80%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Great-West Lifeco Inc. (TSX-GWO); Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC); Power Financial Corp (TSX-PWF) and Sun Life Financial (TSX-SLF).

I follow 34 Industrial stocks. Three are now showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield (or 9%). These stocks are Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT); Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (TSX-HPS.A) and Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI).

Eleven Industrial stocks (or 32%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Ag Growth International (TSX-AFN); Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR); Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT); Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (TSX-HPS.A); HNZ Group Inc. (TSX-HNZ.A); Mullen Group (TSX-MTL); Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI); Russel Metals (TSX-RUS); SNC-Lavalin (TSX-SNC); Toromont Industries Ltd. (TSX-TIH) and Transcontinental Inc. (TSX-TCL.A).

I follow 8 Tech stocks. One is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield and it is Calian Technologies Ltd. (TSX-CTY). Three stocks (or 38%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT); Calian Technologies Ltd (TSX-CTY) and Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET).

I follow 10 Energy stocks. Four Stocks or (40%) are showing as cheap by the historical high dividend yield. They are Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ); Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI); Husky Energy (TSX-HSE) and Suncor Energy (TSX-SU). There are six stocks (or 60%) showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are the four above and Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE) and Encana Corp (TSX-ECA).

I follow 2 Material stocks. One is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield and that is Teck Resources Ltd. It is also the only one that is cheap by historical median dividend yield.

I follow 8 of the infrastructure type utility companies. None are showing as cheap by historical high dividend yield. Three stocks (or 38%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA); TransCanada Corp (TSX-TRP) and Veresen Inc. (TSX-VSN).

I follow 12 of the power type utility companies. One is now showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield and that is TransAlta Corp. Three stock (or 25%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are the one above plus ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X) and Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS).

I follow 5 of the Telecom Service type utility companies. One stock (or 20%) is showing cheap by the historical high dividend yield and that stock is WiLan Inc. (TSX-WIN). Three stocks (or 60%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are BCE (TSX-BCE); Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B); and WiLan Inc. (TSX-WIN).

On my other blog I am today writing about Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Money Show 2015 - Andrew Busch

I was at the Toronto Money Show last Friday and Saturday. I will be publishing my notes as I transcribe them.

There were a number of speakers in the Opening Ceremonies of the Money Show for 2015. The first speaker was Andrew Busch whose talk was called "What's Next for the US Dollar, Euro and Currency Wars. He has a free web site.

First he said that it is the central banks that drive currencies. The ECB has started QE (Quantitative Easing). The BOJ (Bank of Japan) continues QE and the PBOC (People's Bank of China) had cut interest rates.

In the US, the Fed (Janet Yellen) is looking to raise interest rates. The underemployment rate is below 5%, inflation is low and the US dollar is strong. He also points out the effect of a rising currency is the same as rising interest rates. He said the US is looking for GDP growth of 2 to 2.5%. The Fed has ended its QE.

The last time the US raised interest rates was 2006. However, with unemployment below 5% this should drive up wages, but this is only happening in pockets. Congress has just passed the Budget and it raised the Debt Ceiling. The Debt Ceiling will not now be a problem now for a couple of years.

Why is the Fed waiting to go from an emergency period to a normal period? Part of the problem is that there is not much transparency with the Federal Reserve's policy. The US economy continues to have GDP growth of around 2%. It is better than in a lot of other places.

The US PCE Inflation (Price Index) is falling with the price of oil. Texas, North Dakota and Alberta are not doing well, but airplane travel is.

The Fed has said that they will raise rates at the next meeting (in December). If they do not they will lose creditability. It is only the Fed that is contemplating raising rates. The Fed is standing alone with what they are doing.

With the ECB (European Central Bank) they have just started QE. EU unemployment is at 11%. The GDP growth is 1.6% and the CPI is at a negative .1%. They have deflationary problems and they want to devalue their currency. Their QE should be around €60 Billion a month until it reaches some €1.1 Trillion. The goal is low interest rates and a weak Euro to the US Dollar.

He talked about "Unpacking the ECB". QE is working but reforms are needed. The Euro is weak. There are risks in the on-going crisis.

The BOJ is maintaining QE at ¥80Trillion per year. Deflation is a problem as CPI is at 0.2%. The ¥80Trillion a year is the solution to Japan's problems. They are a large shareholder in large ETFs and they want to increase the value of the stock market. A weak Yen is the target.

He talked about "Unpacking the BOJ". Japan must reform. Abe has not been able to do reform.

The PBOC have cut rates and they have added to QE 6 times since November. They said GDP growth is 7%, 7% and 6.9%. They have devalued the currency for the first time and this left uncertainty. We cannot believe their GDP figures. Unemployment is at 4%. Their target GDP growth is 7.1% and they say they are getting 6.9%.

He talked about "Unpacking the PBOC". China has panicked over the stock market and GDP growth. The Chinese government has a hand in the stock market. So you can never tell what the actual value of the market is really at. In August the Chinese Government did everything they could to stop the stock market from falling, but it still went down.

In the US, the US dollar is rising. Also there is good news in that the US is starting to do Tax Reform. It is also good new that Paul Ryan, is now speaker of the House of Representatives. Also with shale production, it is easy to turn it off and on.

Canada has problems in housing and energy. Housing costs are 165% of deposable income and it is too high. Energy price are not going anywhere.

All countries have to reform. The problem is that reform is very hard for politicians.

On my other blog I am today writing about The North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

Dividend Stocks November 2015

The theory is that you should use the dividend yield to see if a dividend stock is selling at a stock price that is relatively cheap. A stock price is considered cheap if it is selling at a dividend yield higher than the historical high yield or higher than the historical average yield or historical median yield. See my spreadsheet at dividend growth stocks that I just updated for November 2015.

On this list,

• I have 12 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
• I have 47 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield
• I have 64 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical median dividend yield and
• 61 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.

When I did my list last month,

• I have 16 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
• I have 54 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield
• I have 67 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical median dividend yield and
• 70 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.

When I did my list in January 2014,

• I had 9 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
• I had 45 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield and
• 39 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.

If you had one share of each stock, total dividends last month would be $143.73. This month dividends would be $143.87. Of the stock that I follow 4 stocks has raised their dividends since last month. Dividends raises are denoted in green. Those stocks are

Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF)
AltaGas Ltd. (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF)
Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS, OTC-FRTSF)
Smart REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF)

Of the stock that I follow 1 stock has suspended their dividends since last month. That stock is McCoy Global Inc. (TSX-MCB, OTC-MCCRF).

I am showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr). See these fields on the right side of the file. You can highlight a particular stock using your cursor to highlight the appropriate line.

There are always some stocks to buy because they are priced reasonably. There are always stocks to currently avoid because they are overpriced. Looking at dividend growth stocks that are selling at stock prices that give them a dividend yield above the historical median dividend yield are probably the best bet.

The stocks that are selling at prices that give them a dividend yield above the historical high yield could be good stocks to buy. However, these stocks may be selling so cheap because of current troubles, especially financial troubles and should be treated with caution. Do not forget that I have all the stocks I follow on this spreadsheet and some are much better investments than others.

You should always investigate a stock before you buy. Sometimes different stocks in certain sectors are just out of favour or the stock market is just in one of its declines. However, a stock may be relatively cheap because it has problems. That is why you should always investigate a stock before buying.

Looking at stock this way is equivalent to a stock filter. A main problem I know of is for the old income trusts. These companies have generally lowered their dividend yields forever and they will probably never get back to the old dividend yield highs they made as an income trust company. For these stocks, you might be better comparing the current dividend yield to the 5 year median dividend yield.

Also, on some stocks I have a lot more information years in my spreadsheets than for other stocks. So, finding a stock on the list as "cheap" is only the first step in finding a stock to buy. This is the same with any other sort of stock filters that you can use.

The last thing to remember is that I have entering figures into a spreadsheet. I could put them in incorrectly, I can transpose figures and I can misread figures. This is another great reason why you should check a stock out before investing. As this is just a filter, it works better on some stocks than on others.

See my entry on my methodology in establishing the historical dividend yield highs and lows for the stocks that I cover. I have an entry on my introduction to Dividend Growth. You might want to look at my original entry on Dividend Growth Stocks. I have also written about why I like Dividend Growth companies.

On my other blog I am today writing about The North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF) ... learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.