Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Dividend Growth 4

First let me give a warning note. I am only dealing with approximately 150 stocks so the sample is small. I have mostly, but not exclusively large dividend growth stocks. So it is probably best to look at this as interesting but it may not necessarily reflecting what is happening in the TSX. However, I feel that it applies to me as I cover the stocks I own and also I am basically only interested in large dividend growth stocks and how they are doing.

This is a continuation of my Dividend Growth 3 post. Note that my index spreadsheet for 2016 has data for stock year end of 2015 and 2014. My index spreadsheet for 2015 has stock year end data for 2014. We are only just over half way through the year so I have updated some 58% of the stocks I follow.

Here I am look at median values using my columns for 5 Year Dividend Growth and 10 Year Dividend Growth columns for the current spreadsheet. I get a median growth of 5.9% over the past 5 years and a median growth of 7% over the past 10 years. This is including all increases, decreases and zero growth values. If I did the median value using only the stocks with a positive growth, it was at 9.3% over the past 5 years, but only 8.9% over the past 10 years.

If I included in my median calculations only positive and zero growth stocks the median growth over the past 5 years is 8.2% and over the past 10 years is 8.7%. If I included only stocks with a negative growth (or declining dividends, my median values over the past 5 years is -7.8% and over the past 10 years is -4.42%.

Median Growth DG 5 DG 10
Total Median Growth 5.85% 7.02%
Using only Positive Growth 9.27% 8.93%
Using Positive and Zero Growth 8.11% 8.70%
Using Negative growth -7.79% -4.42%

The growth or decline is better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years for all categories but using only positive growth. So it would also seem that growth in dividends is slowing down.

If I do this same for my 2015 year end spreadsheet, I get the following values. It would seem that dividend growth was higher and negative growth was lower at the end of 2015 compared to the present. For example, total median growth over the past 5 and 10 years currently 5.9% and 7% whereas to the end of 2015 it was higher at 6.7% and 7.7%.

Median Growth DG 5 DG 10
Total Median Growth 6.68% 7.66%
Using only Positive Growth 9.86% 9.33%
Using Positive and Zero Growth 8.89% 9.22%
Using Negative growth -5.82% -3.01%

My spreadsheet is here.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about DirectCash Payments Inc. (TSX-DCI, OTC-DCTFF)... learn more on Wednesday, August 10, 2016 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.

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