Thursday, September 22, 2016

Bear Market Income

When I wrote Going to ETFs I looked to compare how I did against the TSX and a comparable ETF of CDZ that tracks the Dividend Aristocrat Index of the TSX. I thought this last index might be more comparable to my stocks. In the next post of Going to ETFs 2 I looked to compare how I did against the US indexes of S&P 500 and NASDAQ.

Also in the past I wrote about Recovery from Bears where I looked to see how well my portfolio recovered from bear markets. I also wrote about Me and CDZ on how my portfolio compared to the Dividend Aristocrat Index ETF of CDZ.

In this post I thought the next step was to see if income kept pace with my stock portfolio. So now I am looking at income from my accounts and how it grew over this same period. I use Quicken, so this is where I got my information from. My income comparison shows that growth was not even, but income does keep pace with portfolio values. My chart is below.

Date Time YoY Y to Beg Trad Accts YoY Y to Beg. Income YoY Y to Beg.
27-Feb-09 0.75 0.75 -27.63% -27.63% -3.09% -3.09%
31-Aug-10 1.51 2.25 40.28% 1.52% 13.61% 10.10%
28-Feb-11 0.50 2.75 13.96% 15.69% 1.02% 11.22%
31-May-12 1.25 4.00 -0.91% 14.64% 33.41% 48.39%
30-May-14 3.25 6.00 34.48% 54.17% 3.88% 54.15%
31-Aug-16 4.25 8.25 10.36% 70.15% 14.71% 76.82%

What is interesting to me is that income appeared to grow before the stock market. That is the income seemed to recover first and then waited for the market. My portfolio had recovered by August 2010 but the TSX had not. My portfolio was up just 1.5%, but income was up by 10% since May 2008. When the index was at the highest in February 2011 before a pullback, my income had grown just a bit at 1% between August 2010 and February 2011.

The same thing happened with the pullback, my income seem to have the biggest growth with the pullback at May 2012 with growth of 33% since Feb 2011and total growth of 48.4% since May 2008. At the recovery of the pullback in May 2014, my income grew just 3.9% between May 2012 and May 2014 with total growth since May 2008 at 54%. So my income did keep pace with the recovery, but it was the first to grow.

Below is the chart of TSX and the ETF CDZ so you can see the recovery of February 2011, pullback of May 2012 and final recovery of May 2014.

Date Time YoY Y to Beg TSX YoY Y to Beg. CDZ YoY Y to Beg.
30-May-08 14,715 $21.47
27-Feb-09 0.75 0.75 8,845 -39.89% -39.89% $12.16 -43.36% -43.36%
31-Aug-10 1.51 2.25 11,914 34.70% -19.03% $18.90 55.43% -11.97%
28-Feb-11 0.50 2.75 14,137 18.66% -3.93% $21.35 12.96% -0.56%
31-May-12 1.25 4.00 11,513 -18.56% -21.76% $21.56 0.98% 0.42%
30-May-14 3.25 6.00 14,604 26.85% -0.75% $26.01 20.64% 21.15%
31-Aug-16 4.25 8.25 14,598 -0.04% -0.80% $25.00 -3.88% 16.44%

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Telus Corp. (TSX-T, NYSE-TU)... learn more. Tomorrow, I will write about Wajax Corp. (TSX-WJX, OTC- WJXFF)... learn more on Friday, September 23, 2016 around 5 pm

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter.

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