Money Show 2018 – Kanwal Sarai

Kanwal Sarai talked in one of the Trading Strategies sessions on Saturday His talk was called “How to Select Quality Undervalued Canadian Stock.”. He is Founder, Simply Investing Inc. His site is here.

Look at average dividend yield over past 5 years which is on Yahoo. It likes to look at the 20 year average and he calculates this. Note that dividends are not guaranteed. Buy from the Dividend Aristocrats. Stocks such as Canadian Utilities, Fortis, Canadian Western Bank and ATCO Ltd.

Dividends are not paid from stock price, but paid from earnings. Dividends reward shareholders. He has bought TransCanada because of passive growing income.

He says there are 12 rules for dividend investing.

1. Understand the product or service of the company
2. Will people still be using product or service in 20 years’ time?
3. Does the company have a low cost, durable, competitive advantage?
4. Is the company recession proof?
5. Does company have EPS growth over the past 8, 10 and 20 years? Last 8 years is most important.
6. Can company grow at least 8% per year?
7. Can the company cover its dividend?
8. Does the company have good debt ratios?
9. Does the company have a good credit rating?
10. Is the company active is buying back shares?
11. Is the stock undervalued? Is the P/E Ratio under 25 and P/B Ratio under 3.00?
12. Keep emotion out of investing, you need discipline

There are probably 15 stocks that will pass these rules. He will not buy car or aircraft companies.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF) ... learn more. Next, I will write about Quarterhill Inc. (TSX-QTRH, NASDAQ-QTRH) ... learn more on Friday, November 30, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Money Show 2018 – Peter Ashton

Peter Ashton talked in one of the Trading Strategies sessions on Saturday His talk was called “An Event Driven Approach to Technical analysis.”. He is Vice-President, Product Management, Recognia (US) Inc. His site is here.

People have been using technical analysis for a long time, from 400 years ago in the Rice markets in Japan to current Dow Jones. You have a primary trend of 9 months to 2 years, an intermediate trend of 6 to 9 weeks and a secondary trend of 2 to 6 weeks.

The head and shoulder pattern shows a bottom in a market and is a bullish event. Also, if the stock price moves above its 21 day moving average it is bullish. He looks for first class short-term patterns. The hammer is a bullish good sign. Watch for a few days to see if a reversal takes place. This is where he used stop losses. He looks at indicators and oscillations. What is the tread? He looks at simple moving averages of 21, 50 and 200 days. He also looks for momentum. Classic patter is the symmetrical continuation triangle.

It is important to select quality. You will earn more, have less risk, and get passive income. Do not invest without knowledge. Learn from the best. He mentioned Geraldine Weiss, Charlie Munger, Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, John Templeton, and Peter Lynch. There are 2200 stocks on the TSX. Buy stocks when undervalued. Look at dividend and dividend yield. When yield goes up, share price goes down. For example, Enbridge is undervalued.

If yield is 5%, the stock is undervalued. Examples as BCE, Enbridge, and Encana.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Crescent Point Energy Corp. (TSX-CPG, NYSE-CPG) ... learn more. Next, I will write about Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF) ... learn more on Wednesday, November 28, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Money Show 2018 – Landon Whaley

Landon Whaley talked in one of the Strategies sessions on Saturday His talk was called “The Primary Forces Impacting Asset Prices and the Critical Shift in the US Investing Playbook That No One is Discussing.”. He is CEO of Whaley Capital Group. His site is here.

Investors need to realize markets will go to the mean. When risks are higher, they should go defensive. Investors need to know when stocks are expensive or cheap. The S&P500 is up 35% and European Market stocks are up by 11.5%. The Canadian market is up 3.5%. The ACWI ETF is the worldwide ETF and it is going sideways. The ACWX ETF excludes the US and is doing down. It is cheap. The tariff wars are making it cheap.

The EEM, which is emerging markets are cheap. When this breaks out it will also need a confirmation of a Trade Deal. EFA is Europe and Asia and it is below normal. The US market is almost expensive. NASDAQ is on an uptrend and is expensive to the world. The Dow Jones, compared to the rest of the world, is expensive.

The TSX is underperforming the S&P500. It is really cheap compared to the S&P500. It is more neutral when compared to worldwide markets. The US market is going up and the European market is going sideways.

The Canadian market consists of financial, material, energy, and industrial stocks. The US$ is stable as is oil. He suggests investors take the Canadian Securities Course. He thinks that the Practical Index Investing for Canadians course by John Robertson is good.. Another suggested course is Money After Graduation by Bridget Casey. Ellen Roseman teaches a course at U of T. Her site is here.

Books to read are Millionaire Teacher by Andrew Hallam with a site here and they Value of Simple: A Practical Guide to Taking the Complexity Out of Investing by John Robertson. You also might want to look at the website called Young and Thrifty.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about PFB Corp. (TSX-PFB, OTC-PFBOF) ... learn more. Next, I will write about Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX-INE, OTC-INGXF) ... learn more on Friday, November 23, 2018 around 5 pm

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Money Show 2018 – Derek Foster

Derek Foster talked in one of the Strategies sessions on Saturday His talk was called “Compounders That Make you Rich”. He is the author of The Idiot Millionaire. His site is here.

His stocks must pay a dividend and increase them yearly at least for 10 years. Consumer taste are changing. He wants safe growth or relatively safe growth. He likes the CNR because it has a track to Price Rupert which can save 2 days off a pacific journey. He wants to have a company with safe growth, not a fad.

Asia (China) is in their third or fourth inning, but Asian trade will growth. Prince Rupert has excess capacity. There are only two railways in Canada, CN and CP and they have their tracks. There will not be another rail company in Canada. They have their basic costs and once they pay these costs, it is all profit. They both have huge growth potential and they will continue to grow. CN also goes to Mexico which is a growth area.

Visa (NYSE-V) is growing globally. It is a safe company. Their industry is hard to break into. Alimentation Couche-Tard (TSX-ATD.B) have convenience stores. They are consolidation the convenience stores. They are growing massively in Europe and Asia. Eating out is now done in national chains. We know that there will be a certain number of 70, 80 and 90 year old people. Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS) is from Quebec and is growing massively.

He is looking for growth that is safe and with little chance of a downside.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) ... learn more. Next, I will write about HLS Therapeutics Inc. (TSX-HLS, OTC-HLTRF) ... learn more on Friday, November 16, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Money Show 2018 – Panel

This panel consisted of Mark Skousen, Ryan Irvine and Gordon Pape This title for this panel was “Everything you need to Know About the markets”.

Ryan: The newspaper the Calgary Herald said a definition of a Gold Mine is a hole surrounded by liars. In Canada there is no hole. There are 28 Blockchain companies in Canada and none met Keystone’s criteria for a recommendation. There are 109 cannabis companies in Canada with 5 with profits. None met Keystone’s criteria. P/S Ratio for Canopy Growth Corp (TSX-WEED) is 700 which is 5 to 6 times sales.

Gordon Pape: He likes value and growth. At present he likes the Canadian banks. They survived 2008. We have only six big banks and also tighter bank regulations. His main current theme is defensive stock, so the banks. American exceptionalism is continuing, even with Trump. The Canadian market has 30% financial, 20% resources, 5% materials and 3% tech. US has 25% tech.

There is too much red tape in Canada and it is hard to get anything done. We can invest in US easily, but we have a home country bias. Agriculture and resources have done poorly for years. 75% of our business is with the US. Dynacor Gold Mines Inc (TSX-DNG) recently started to pay dividends. Franco-Nevada Corp (TSX FNV) and Dollarama (TSX-DOL), CGI Group (TSX-DIB.A) and WSP Global (TSX-WSP) are stocks that are liked.

There is a worry about real estate in Canada. There is no economic freedom under Trudeau and it is up under Trump. Alberta has the highest and Quebec the lowest economic freedom in Canada. Boyd Group Income Fund (TSX-BYS.UN) was the best stock last year. Enbridge has come back and will do well.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE) ... learn more. Next, I will write about Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) ... learn more on Wednesday, November 14, 2018 around 5 pm

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Something to Buy November 2018

There is always something to buy in the stock market. On Tuesday, I put out a list of the stocks that I covered and showed what stock might be a good deal based on dividend yield. Now I am trying to categorize what sorts of stocks may be a good deal based on dividend yield.

The advantages to using dividend yield to judge how cheap or expensive a stock is, is that you are not using estimates or old data (like last reported quarter's data). You are using today's stock price and today's dividend yield.

For other testing, like using P/E Ratios and Price/Graham Price Ratios, you use EPS estimates or from the last reported financial quarter. When using P/S Ratios, P/CF Ratios or P/BV Ratios you are using data from the last reported financial quarter.

This system does not work well for old Income Trust companies. These companies had quite high Dividend Yields which will probably never be seen again. So, I started a column called VT (for Valid Test) and this applies to checking stock price using dividend yield. If it is not a valid test I use N to show this. For these stocks, you might be better comparing the current dividend yield to the 5 year median dividend yield.

However, no system is perfect. But if you are interested in buying a stock a list of stocks cheap or reasonable using dividend yield data might be a good place to start.

Categorizing stocks is not as simple as it might seem. Every site you go to has categorized stocks a bit differently. I try to keep this as simple as possible. See Something to Buy November 2018 Spreadsheet to see what stocks are showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr). As in other spreadsheets, you can highlight a line or a number of lines for better viewing.

In the following notes I am only going to list stocks showing as cheap using the historical high dividend yields (P/Hi) and historical median dividend yields (P/Med

I now follow 21 stocks in the Consumer Discretionary category. Newfoundland Capital Corp (TSX-NCC.A) has been bought out by Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A). Three of these stocks (14%) are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield and they are Dorel Industries (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF), High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF) and Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A). DHX Media Ltd. (TSX-DHX, OTC-DHXMF) has been removed from this list as they have suspended their dividends. Newfoundland Capital Corp (TSX-NCC.A) has also been removed from this list.

Nine (or 43%) of Consumer Discretionary are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF), Dorel Industries (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF), High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF), Leon's Furniture (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF), Magna International Inc. (TSX-MG, NYSE-MGA), Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP), Pizza Pizza Royalty Corp (TSX-PZA, OTC-PZRIF), Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. (TSX-RET.A, OTC-RTMAF) and Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A). DHX Media Ltd. (TSX-DHX, OTC-DHXMF) has been removed from this list as they have suspended their dividends. Newfoundland Capital Corp (TSX-NCC.A) has also been removed from this list.

I follow 11 Consumer Staples stocks. No companies are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Five stocks (or 46%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These are AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. (TSX-AGT, OTC-AGXXF), Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF), Loblaw Companies (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF), Metro Inc. (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF) and Saputo Inc. (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF). There is no change from last month.

I only follow three Health Care stocks. None of these stocks are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two or 67% are cheap by the historical median dividend yield. The stocks are Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) and Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). There is no change from last month.

I follow 10 Energy stocks. Two stock or 20% are showing as cheap by the historical high dividend yield. They are Mullen Group (TSX-MTL, OTC-MLLGF) and Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF). Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF) has been added to this list.

There are four stocks (or 40%) showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ), Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE), Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF), and Mullen Group (TSX-MTL, OTC-MLLGF). There is no change from last month.

I follow 8 Bank stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Five stocks (or 63%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS), CIBC (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM), National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF), Royal Bank (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY), and Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD). National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF), Royal Bank (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY), and Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD) have been added to this list.

I follow 14 Financial Service stocks. Two or 14% are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. These are Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF) and Power Corp (TSX-POW, OTC-PWCDF).

Nine (or 64%) stocks are showing cheap by the historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC-ACCFF), AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF), Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF), Chesswood Group (TSX-CHW, OTC-CHWWF), CI Financial (TSX-CIX, OTC-CIFAF), Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF), Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF), IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) and Power Corp (TSX-POW, OTC-PWCDF). Chesswood Group (TSX-CHW, OTC-CHWWF) has been added to this list.

I follow 6 Insurance stocks. One is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. It is Power Financial Corp (TSX-PWF, OTC-POFNF). Power Financial Corp (TSX-PWF, OTC-POFNF) has been added this month.

Six stocks (or 100%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Great-West Lifeco Inc. (TSX-GWO, OTC-GWLIF), Industrial Alliance Ins. and Fin. (TSX-IAG, OTC-IDLLF), Intact Financial Corp. (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF), Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC), Power Financial Corp (TSX-PWF, OTC-POFNF) and Sun Life Financial (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF). Intact Financial Corp. (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF) has been added back to this list.

I follow 32 Industrial stocks. Because I have so many and Industrial is not very descriptive, I have divided my Industrial stocks into 4 separate categories under Industrial. They are Construction, Industrial, Manufacturing and (Business) Services.

I have 6 Construction stocks. None are cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks or 33% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are SNC-Lavalin (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF) and Stantec Inc. (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN). There is no change from last month.

I have 3 stocks I have left with the sub-index of Industrial. None are cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks or 67% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF), and Russel Metals (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). There is no change from last month.

I have 7 Manufacturing stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks or 57% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF), Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (TSX-HPS.A, OTC-HMDPF), Intertape Polymer Group Inc. (TSX-ITP, OTC-ITPOF) and PFB Corp (TSX-PFB, OTC-PFBOF). There is no change from last month.

I follow 16 Services stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Five stocks or 31% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI), Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF), Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc. (TSX-RBA, NYSE-RBA), Transcontinental Inc. (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF) and Wajax Corp (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF). Wajax Corp (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF) has been added to this list. Last month there was only 4 not 5 stocks in this category.

I follow 8 Material stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Three stock or 38% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. The stocks are Barrick Gold Corp (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX), Hardwoods Distribution Inc. (TSX-HDI, OTC-HDIUF) and Stella-Jones (TSX-SJ, OTC-STLJF). Stella-Jones (TSX-SJ, OTC-STLJF) has been added to this list.

I follow 10 Real Estate stocks. One of these stocks is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. The stock is Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF). Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF) has been added to this list.

Six stocks (or 60%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC- ARESF), Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF), Granite Real Estate (TSX-GRT.UN, NYSE-GRP.U), H & R REIT (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF), Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF), and SmartCentres REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF). SmartCentres REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF) has been added to this list.

I follow 4 of the Telecom Service stocks. No stocks are showing as cheap by historically high dividend yield. Three stocks (or 75%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are BCE (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE), Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR) and Telus Corp (TSX-T, NYSE-TU). There is no change from last month.

I follow 8 Info Tech stocks. One is showing as cheap by historical high dividend yield and that is Maxar Technologies Ltd (TSX-MAXR-NYSE-MAXR). There is no change from last month.

Four stocks (or 50%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF) Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF), Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF) and Maxar Technologies Ltd (TSX-MAXR-NYSE-MAXR). There is no change from last month. The Tech sector is now Info Tech.

I follow 7 of the Infrastructure type utility companies. None are showing as cheap by historical high dividend yield. Five stocks (or 71%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF), Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB), Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc (TSX-ENF, OTC-EBGUF), Keyera Corp (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF) and TransCanada Corp (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP). Keyera Corp (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF) has been added to this list.

I follow 11 of the Power type utility companies. EnerCare Inc (TSX-ECI, OTC-CSUWF) has been bought by Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L. P. (TSX-BIP.UN, NYSE-BIP) so this has reduced this Power Sector from 12 to 11. Only ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF) is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. This has not changed from last month.

Five stocks (or 45%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. Those stocks are ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF), Canadian Utilities Ltd (TSX-CU, OTC-CDUAF) and Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRAF), Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS, OTC-FRTSF) and Just Energy Group Inc. (TSX-JE, NYSE-JE). This has not changed from last month.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Dollarama Inc. (TSX-DOL, OTC-DLMAF) ... learn more. Next, I will write about Keyera Corp. (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF) ... learn more on Friday, November 9, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk . The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Dividend Stocks November 2018

First, I want to point out that not all of the stocks I follow are great investments. I follow a diverse selection of stocks. There are some that I would never invest in personally. I follow a number of resource stocks even though I personally have little invested in this area. I follow what I find interesting and with resource stocks, I think it is important for Canadians to know what is happening in the resource area. On the other hand, I do follow of good number of great dividend growth stocks.

The theory is that you should use the dividend yield to see if a dividend stock is selling at a stock price that is relatively cheap. A stock price is considered cheap if it is selling at a dividend yield higher than the historical high yield or higher than the historical average yield or historical median yield. See my spreadsheet at dividend growth stocks that I just updated for November 2018.

On this list,

• I have 11 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
• I have 54 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield
• I have 79 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical median dividend yield and
• 87 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.

When I did my list last list in October 2018,

• I have 9 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
• I have 51 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield
• I have 72 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical median dividend yield and
• 77 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.

When I did my list in January 2014,

• I had 9 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
• I had 45 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield and
• 39 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.

If you had one share of each stock, total dividends last month would be $170.01. This month dividends would be $171.02 which is a reset figure after the changes noted below. Of the stock that I follow 5 stocks has raised their dividends since last month.

Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRAF)
Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS, OTC-FRTSF)
Thomson Reuters Corp (TSX-TRI, NYSE-TRI)
SmartCentres REIT (TSX-SRU.UN OTC-CWYUF)
Waste Connections Inc. (TSX-WCN, NYSE-WCN)

Of the stocks I follow, one stock has suspended their dividends. That stock is DHX Media Ltd. (TSX-DHX, OTC-DHXMF). They started a review of the company in late 2017 because of poor results. One result was of this review was to suspend dividends and free up cash to help payout their debt. See article in Bloomberg.

Last month I said that Power Corp (TSX-POW, OTC-PWCDF) had raised their dividends. It appears that I was wrong about that. It looks like I might have confused Power Financial with this stock.

Newfoundland Capital Corp (TSX-NCC.A) has been bought by Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A) and EnerCare Inc (TSX-ECI, OTC-CSUWF) has been bought by Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L. P. (TSX-BIP.UN, NYSE-BIP). So, these are more stock I have to replace next year.

Note that not all stocks had decreases in price in October. Some when up like Just Energy Group Inc. (TSX-JE, NYSE-JE), where the stock price went from $4.01 to $4.41. Also, there was some big changes in Beta for some stocks. For example, Hardwoods Distribution Inc. (TSX-HDI, OTC-HDIUF) went from 0.30 to 0.83. Some stocks have really suffered like Maxar Technologies Ltd (TSX-MAXR-NYSE-MAXR) where the price went from $42.54 to 21.29. The Beta for this stock went from 0.87 to 1.97.

Most of my stocks started out as Dividend Payers. Currently 13 stocks are not paying any dividends and this would be some 8.39% of the stocks that I follow. Four of these stocks never had dividends, so 5.81% of the stocks I follow have suspended their dividends. The three stocks that never paid dividends are Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP), Blackberry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY) and Trigon Metals Inc. (TSX-TM, OTC-PNTZF).

I am showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr). See these fields on the right side of the file. You can highlight a particular stock using your cursor to highlight the appropriate line.

There are always some stocks to buy because they are priced reasonably. There are always stocks to currently avoid because they are overpriced. Looking at dividend growth stocks that are selling at stock prices that give them a dividend yield above the historical median dividend yield are probably the best bet.

The stocks that are selling at prices that give them a dividend yield above the historical high yield could be good stocks to buy. However, these stocks may be selling so cheap because of current troubles, especially financial troubles and should be treated with caution. Do not forget that I have all the stocks I follow on this spreadsheet and some are much better investments than others.

You should always investigate a stock before you buy. Sometimes different stocks in certain sectors are just out of favour or the stock market is just in one of its declines. However, a stock may be relatively cheap because it has problems. That is why you should always investigate a stock before buying.

Looking at stock this way is equivalent to a stock filter. A main problem I know of is for the old income trusts. These companies have generally lowered their dividend yields forever and they will probably never get back to the old dividend yield highs they made as an income trust company. For these stocks, you might be better comparing the current dividend yield to the 5 year median dividend yield. I also started a column called VT (for Valid Test) and this applies to checking stock price using dividend yield. If it is not a valid test I use N to show this.

Also, on some stocks I have a lot more information years in my spreadsheets than for other stocks. So, finding a stock on the list as "cheap" is only the first step in finding a stock to buy. This is the same with any other sort of stock filters that you can use.

The last thing to remember is that I have entering figures into a spreadsheet. I could put them in incorrectly, I can transpose figures and I can misread figures. This is another great reason why you should check a stock out before investing. As this is just a filter, it works better on some stocks than on others.

See my entry on my methodology in establishing the historical dividend yield highs and lows for the stocks that I cover. I have an entry on my introduction to Dividend Growth. You might want to look at my original entry on Dividend Growth Stocks. I have also written about why I like Dividend Growth companies.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Encana Corp. (TSX-ECA, NYSE-ECA) ... learn more. Next, I will write about Dollarama Inc. (TSX-DOL, OTC-DLMAF) ... learn more on Wednesday, November 7, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram with #walktoronto.

Money Show 2018 – Keith Richards

Keith Richards talked in one of the Investing Strategies sessions His talk was called “Win by Not Losing”. He is a Portfolio Manager for Value Trends Wealth Management and Worldsource Securities. His company’s site is here.

Grow your capital by monitoring your portfolio and having low turnover. You should limit your risk and keep your money. He does tech analysis and fundamental analysis. Look at the financial statements. Value Trend has a blog her. You can email Keith Richards at here.

We do not know the future but we can increase our odds of success. We do true market timing. We buy securities when the risk of holding them is low and we sell when the risk of holding is high. There are cycles of sentiment, momentum, breath, and Dow Theory.

Stock have support and resistance levels. Buyers come in at the support level. Sometimes you get repeat patterns when a stock goes between support and resistance levels. But these patterns do not last forever. The stock will break out either to the top (resistance level) or the bottom (support level). If a stock hits a support level wait 3 days to see if it will go below that level. He does not use stop losses. He thinks moving averages are largely useless when looking at support and resistance levels. Moving averages are only good for showing trends.

When a stock breaks higher than the resistance level, then the old resistance level becomes the support level. In an uptrend what you want to see if higher highs and higher lows. When a stock breaks the resistance level you can get a period of consolidation. Sell if you get lower lows and the stock goes below the 100 day moving average.

There are cycles. Human nature is predictable. You have 4 year cycles on the S&P500 since the 1970’s. August 2013 was the start of a bull market and 2008 was the bottom of that market. We have time left in the current bull market.

In 2017 we had the lowest volatility ever. We will probably never see that again. If you are a trader, you want volatility. He trades every 6 months, not 3 days and not 30 years.

Seasonal cycle for the market. Best time in market is from October 28 to May 5 and worse time is May 6 to October 27. TSX is similar from 1950 to 2017. However, there are seasonal cycle for different cycle. Good sites are dvtechtalk; Equity Talk and Thackray’s guides. See also his company’s site of Value Trend

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM) ... learn more. Next, I will write about CCL Industries Inc. (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF) ... learn more on Friday, November 2, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.