Keith Richards talked in one of the Investing Strategies sessions His talk was called “Win by Not Losing”. He is a Portfolio Manager for Value Trends Wealth Management and Worldsource Securities. His company’s site is here.
Grow your capital by monitoring your portfolio and having low turnover. You should limit your risk and keep your money. He does tech analysis and fundamental analysis. Look at the financial statements. Value Trend has a blog her. You can email Keith Richards at here.
We do not know the future but we can increase our odds of success. We do true market timing. We buy securities when the risk of holding them is low and we sell when the risk of holding is high. There are cycles of sentiment, momentum, breath, and Dow Theory.
Stock have support and resistance levels. Buyers come in at the support level. Sometimes you get repeat patterns when a stock goes between support and resistance levels. But these patterns do not last forever. The stock will break out either to the top (resistance level) or the bottom (support level). If a stock hits a support level wait 3 days to see if it will go below that level. He does not use stop losses. He thinks moving averages are largely useless when looking at support and resistance levels. Moving averages are only good for showing trends.
When a stock breaks higher than the resistance level, then the old resistance level becomes the support level. In an uptrend what you want to see if higher highs and higher lows. When a stock breaks the resistance level you can get a period of consolidation. Sell if you get lower lows and the stock goes below the 100 day moving average.
There are cycles. Human nature is predictable. You have 4 year cycles on the S&P500 since the 1970’s. August 2013 was the start of a bull market and 2008 was the bottom of that market. We have time left in the current bull market.
In 2017 we had the lowest volatility ever. We will probably never see that again. If you are a trader, you want volatility. He trades every 6 months, not 3 days and not 30 years.
Seasonal cycle for the market. Best time in market is from October 28 to May 5 and worse time is May 6 to October 27. TSX is similar from 1950 to 2017. However, there are seasonal cycle for different cycle. Good sites are dvtechtalk; Equity Talk and Thackray’s guides. See also his company’s site of Value Trend
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM) ... learn more. Next, I will write about CCL Industries Inc. (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF) ... learn more on Friday, November 2, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
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