Thursday, January 11, 2018

Update Notes

When I was updating my stock list for January 2018 I noticed a couple outstanding items on Automodular and Canadian Tire which I listed below. I also thought I would publish my chart on increases and decreases in dividends. For 2018 we had 7 stocks increasing their next dividend and no stocks decreasing their dividends. This is a good start for the year.

On stock that I have and follow is Automodular Corp (TSX-AM.H, OTC-AMZKF). I bought this as another entity and but not sell because it is not worth much and I wondered what would happen to it. AMD had now found something to do. They are HLS Therapeutics Inc. and will be listed on the TSX Venture Exchange. However the shares received are described as fully paid and non-assessable? Interesting to see how this works out.

Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF) after a third quarterly profit of $2.59 per share raised their dividends by 38.5%. This is discussed Ryan Goldsman on Motley Fool. I have own this stock since 2009 and have made a total return of 14.13% per year on it.

Below is a chart showing the number of increases and decreases in dividends for the stocks that I follow.

# Mths 2018 2018 2017 2017 2016 2016 2015 2015 2014 2014 Med Med
Action Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr Incr Decr
1 Jan 7 0 5 1 4 0 4 0 4.0 0.0
2 Feb 10 0 5 2 8 0 14 0 9.0 0.0
3 Mar 23 0 18 5 19 3 15 1 18.5 2.0
4 Apr 10 2 8 4 9 3 14 0 9.5 2.5
5 May 5 0 3 2 6 1 7 1 5.5 1.0
6 Jun 13 0 18 0 14 1 14 1 14.0 0.5
7 Jul 4 1 3 1 6 1 3 0 3.5 1.0
8 Aug 0 0 4 0 4 2 9 0 4.0 0.0
9 Sep 10 0 7 1 7 3 9 0 8.0 0.5
10 Oct 0 0 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0
11 Nov 5 0 6 0 4 1 5.0 0.0
12 Dec 12 0 12 0 13 2 13 0 12.5 0.0
Tot 7 0 97 4 88 15 95 18 99 4 94.5 8.5
% 5% 0% 63% 3% 56% 10% 64% 12% 68% 3% 61% 6%
154 154 156 148 145 154


On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Calian Group Ltd. (TSX-CGY, OTC- CLNFF)... learn more. Next, I will write about Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD)... learn more on Friday, January 12, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, January 9, 2018

Stock Entries 2018

In 2017, I concentrated mostly on talking about the stock price. I believe you should be buying stocks when the price is at least reasonable. I will continue to track this in my entries. However, I believe strongly in investing in stocks for the long term. By long term I am not talking about 5 years. I believe in the very long term. I have had the Bank for Montreal for some 36 years and I have no intention of selling it.

I keep stocks that I buy until they are bought out or get into trouble that they do not seem to be able to resolve. I had Loblaw Companies Ltd for 11 years but sold in 2007 because they did not seem to be able to solve the problems with their new supply chain program. (I do not believe they have even now solved the problems.)

For 2018 I want to consider long term total returns for the stocks that I cover. I have to date only looked at total returns for the past 5 and 10 years. However, for a lot of stocks I have a lot more data. So where I can I will look at total returns over the past 15 plus years.

Often commentaries look at the short term of the last year and some the very short term of only the last quarter. To me that is no basis to buy a stock. Of course the past does not tell you everything. But it can give you a feel for the company and the market it operates in. On the other hand sometimes a new CEO or Chairman changes things a lot, especially if the company has gotten into difficulties and needs new ideas to move forward.

Looking at the past can sometimes help with knowing how a company will react to certain situations. For example, when a company has difficulty in covering their dividends with EPS, the past actions might show you how they will handle the situation now. When a company cannot cover their dividends, they can continue to grow them, they can stop growing them, they can cut them or they can suspend them.

Companies do tend to do what they have done in the past. There are always going to be another recession and some company you own will have problems covering their dividends. When you know what they have done in the past is a good indicator on what they will do now.

I do not find recessions or the suspending or cutting of dividends a problem as I have companies in different sectors and different sectors often react to recessions differently. So in the bad times, I have companies that do stop growing dividends; that do cut them or do suspend them. However, since companies are often affected different, I also have companies that can continue to grow dividends in recessions. Overall I find that in bad times my dividend growth slows down.

I not only look at the past, but I also look at what people are currently saying about a company and what they think will happen in the short term. This short term is from 1 to 3 years.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Rogers Sugar Inc. (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF)... learn more. Next, I will write about Calian Group Ltd. (TSX-CGY, OTC- CLNFF)... learn more on Wednesday, January 9, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Something to Buy January 2018

There is always something to buy in the stock market. On Tuesday, I put out a list of the stocks that I covered and showed what stock might be a good deal based on dividend yield. Now I am trying to categorize what sorts of stocks may be a good deal based on dividend yield.

The advantages to using dividend yield to judge how cheap or expensive a stock is, is that you are not using estimates or old data (like last reported quarter's data). You are using today's stock price and today's dividend yield.

For other testing, like using P/E Ratios and Price/Graham Price Ratios, you use EPS estimates or from the last reported financial quarter. When using P/S Ratios, P/CF Ratios or P/BV Ratios you are using data from the last reported financial quarter.

This system does not work well for old Income Trust companies. These companies had quite high Dividend Yields which will probably never be seen again. So I started a column called VT (for Valid Test) and this applies to checking stock price using dividend yield. If not a valid test I use N to show this. For these stocks, you might be better comparing the current dividend yield to the 5 year median dividend yield.

However, no system is perfect. But if you are interested in buying a stock a list of stocks cheap or reasonable using dividend yield data might be a good place to start.

Categorizing stocks is not as simple as it might seem. Every site you go to has categorized stocks a bit differently. I try to keep this as simple as possible. See Something to Buy January 2018 Spreadsheet to see what stocks are showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr). As in other spreadsheets, you can highlight a line or a number of lines for better viewing.

In the following notes I am only going to list stocks showing as cheap using the historical high dividend yields (P/Hi) and historical median dividend yields (P/Med).

I follow 22 stocks in the Consumer Discretionary category. One of these stocks is showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield and that is Newfoundland Capital Corp (TSX-NCC.A). Nine (or 41%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF, DHX Media Ltd. (TSX-DHX.A, OTC-DHXMF), Dorel Industries (TSX-DII.B High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF), Leon's Furniture (TSX-LNF); Magna International Inc. (TSX-MG, NYSE-MGA), Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP) Newfoundland Capital Corp (TSX-NCC.A) and Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. (TSX-RET.A, OTC-RTMAF). Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF), Dorel Industries (TSX-DII.B) Magna International Inc. (TSX-MG, NYSE-MGA), and Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP) has been added to this list.

I follow 12 Consumer Staples stocks. No companies are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks (or 33%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These are Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF), Jean Coutu Group Inc. (TSX-PJC.A, OTC-JCOUF), Loblaw Companies (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) and Metro Inc. (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF). This is the same as for last month.

I only follow two Health Care stocks and both are US stocks. None of these stocks are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. They are both cheap by the historical median dividend yield. The stocks are Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ) and Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). This is the same as for last month.

I follow 10 Real Estate stocks as I have deleted Colliers International Group Inc. (TSX-CIGI, NASDAQ-CIGI) as I will no longer follow this stock. None of these stocks are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Three stocks (or 30%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC- ARESF); Granite Real Estate (TSX-GRT.UN, NYSE-GRP.U) and Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF). H & R REIT (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF) and SmartCentres REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF) have been deleted from cheap by historically median dividend yield list.

I follow 8 Bank stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. No stock is showing cheap by the historical median dividend yield. Last month CIBC (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM) was on this list.

I follow 13 Financial Service stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Seven (or 54%) stocks are showing cheap by the historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC-ACCFF), AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF), Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF), CI Financial (TSX-CIX, OTC-CIFAF), Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF), IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) and Power Corp (TSX-POW, OTC-PWCDF). Last month Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF) was on this list.

I follow 5 Insurance stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Three stocks (or 60%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Great-West Lifeco Inc. (TSX-GWO, OTC-GWLIF); Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC), Power Financial Corp (TSX-PWF, OTC-POFNF). Sun Life Financial (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF has been deleted to cheap by historically median dividend yield list.

I follow 33 Industrial stocks. I have started to follow Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc. (TSX-RBA, NYSE-RBA) and will blog about it when the 2017 annual report is in. Because I have so many and Industrial is not very descriptive, I have divided my Industrial stocks into 4 separate categories under Industrial. They are Construction, Industrial, Manufacturing and (Business) Services.

I have 6 Construction stocks. None are cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks or 33% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are SNC-Lavalin (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF) and Stantec Inc. (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN). There is no change from last month.

I have 3 stocks I have left with the sub-index of Industrial. None are cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Two stocks or 67% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF), and Russel Metals (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). There is no change from last month.

I have 7 Manufacturing stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks or 57% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF), Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (TSX-HPS.A, OTC-HMDPF), Intertape Polymer Group Inc. (TSX-ITP, OTC-ITPOF) and PFB Corp (TSX-PFB, OTC-PFBOF). There is no change from last month.

I have 17 Services stocks because of the addition of Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc. (TSX-RBA, NYSE-RBA). None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Four stocks or 24% are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI), Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF) Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc. (TSX-RBA, NYSE-RBA) and Transcontinental Inc. (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF). Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc. (TSX-RBA, NYSE-RBA) has been added to cheap by historically median dividend yield list. .

I follow 8 Material stocks. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. None are showing as cheap by historical median dividend yield. This is the same as for last month.

I follow 10 Energy stocks. Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF) is showing as cheap by the historical high dividend yield. There are five stocks (or 50%) showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ), Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE), Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF); Mullen Group (TSX-MTL, OTC-MLLGF) and Suncor Energy (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). There is no change from last month.

I follow 8 Tech stocks. None are showing as cheap by historical high dividend yield. Four stocks (or 50%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF) Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF), Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF), and Sylogist Ltd (TSXV-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF). There is no change from last month.

I follow 7 of the Infrastructure type utility companies. None are showing as cheap by historical high dividend yield. Three stocks (or 43%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. They are AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF), Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB) and Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (TSX-ENF, OTC-EBGUF). Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (TSX-ENF, OTC-EBGUF) has been added back to this from cheap by historically median dividend yield list.

I follow 12 of the Power type utility companies. None are showing as cheap by the historically high dividend yield. Six stock (or 50%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. Those stocks are Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (TSX-AQN, NYSE-AQN), ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF), Canadian Utilities Ltd (TSX-CU, OTC-CDUAF) and Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRAF), Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS, OTC-FRTSF) and Just Energy Group Inc. (TSX-JE, NYSE-JE). Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (TSX-AQN, NYSE-AQN) and Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS, OTC-FRTSF) have been added to cheap by historically median dividend yield list.

I follow 4 of the Telecom Service type utility companies. No stock is showing cheap by the historical high dividend yield. Three stocks (or 75%) are showing cheap by historical median dividend yield. These stocks are BCE (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE), Shaw Communications Inc. (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR) and Telus Corp (TSX-T, NYSE-TU). There is no change from last month.

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO)... learn more. Next, I will write about Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY)... learn more on Friday, January 5, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk . The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Dividend Stocks January 2018

First I want to point out that not all of the stocks I follow are great investments. I follow a diverse selection of stocks. There are some that I would never invest in personally. I follow a number of resource stocks even though I personally have little invested in this area. I follow what I find interesting and with resource stocks, I think it is important for Canadians to know what is happening in the resource area. On the other hand I do follow of good number of great dividend growth stocks.

The theory is that you should use the dividend yield to see if a dividend stock is selling at a stock price that is relatively cheap. A stock price is considered cheap if it is selling at a dividend yield higher than the historical high yield or higher than the historical average yield or historical median yield. See my spreadsheet at dividend growth stocks that I just updated for January 2018. On this list,
  • I have 2 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
  • I have 32 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield
  • I have 61 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical median dividend yield and
  • 60 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.
When I did my list last list in December 2017,
  • I have 2 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
  • I have 30 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield
  • I have 57 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical median dividend yield and
  • 57 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.
When I did my list in January 2014,
  • I had 9 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical high dividend yield,
  • I had 45 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the historical average dividend yield and
  • 39 stocks with a dividend yield higher than the 5 year average dividend yield.
If you had one share of each stock, total dividends last month would be $158.12. This month dividends would be $161.28. Of the stock that I follow 7 stocks has raised their dividends since last month.

Allied Properties REIT (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF)
Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO)
Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF)
DHX Media Ltd. (TSX-DHX.A, OTC-DHXMF)
Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (TSX-ENF, OTC-EBGUF)

Granite REIT (TSX-GRT.UN, NYSE-GRP.U)
TFI International (TSX-TFII, OTC-TFIFF)

The TD Bank says that SmartCentres REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF) have increased their dividend from $1.75 to $1.85. However, I cannot find a press-release or another site that confirms this. I know that the dividend to be paid in January 2018 is still at the old rate of $0.14583 per unit. I have not updated my spreadsheet to show any increase in dividends for this company.

Also, of the stocks that I follow, 0 stocks decreased or suspended their dividends.

Most of my stocks started out as Dividend Payers. Currently 16 stocks are not paying any dividends and this would be some 10.4% of the stocks that I follow. Three of these stocks never had dividends, so 8.44% of the stocks I follow have suspended their dividends. The three stocks that never paid dividends are Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP0, Blackberry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY) and Trigon Metals Inc. (TSX-TM, OTC-PNTZF).

I am showing whether a stock is relatively cheap based on historical high dividend yields (P/Hi), historical average dividend yields (P/Ave), historical median dividend yields (P/Med) or on 5 year median dividend yields (P/5Yr). See these fields on the right side of the file. You can highlight a particular stock using your cursor to highlight the appropriate line.

There are always some stocks to buy because they are priced reasonably. There are always stocks to currently avoid because they are overpriced. Looking at dividend growth stocks that are selling at stock prices that give them a dividend yield above the historical median dividend yield are probably the best bet.

The stocks that are selling at prices that give them a dividend yield above the historical high yield could be good stocks to buy. However, these stocks may be selling so cheap because of current troubles, especially financial troubles and should be treated with caution. Do not forget that I have all the stocks I follow on this spreadsheet and some are much better investments than others.

You should always investigate a stock before you buy. Sometimes different stocks in certain sectors are just out of favour or the stock market is just in one of its declines. However, a stock may be relatively cheap because it has problems. That is why you should always investigate a stock before buying.

Looking at stock this way is equivalent to a stock filter. A main problem I know of is for the old income trusts. These companies have generally lowered their dividend yields forever and they will probably never get back to the old dividend yield highs they made as an income trust company. For these stocks, you might be better comparing the current dividend yield to the 5 year median dividend yield. I also started a column called VT (for Valid Test) and this applies to checking stock price using dividend yield. If not a valid test I use N to show this.

Also, on some stocks I have a lot more information years in my spreadsheets than for other stocks. So, finding a stock on the list as "cheap" is only the first step in finding a stock to buy. This is the same with any other sort of stock filters that you can use.

The last thing to remember is that I have entering figures into a spreadsheet. I could put them in incorrectly, I can transpose figures and I can misread figures. This is another great reason why you should check a stock out before investing. As this is just a filter, it works better on some stocks than on others.

See my entry on my methodology in establishing the historical dividend yield highs and lows for the stocks that I cover. I have an entry on my introduction to Dividend Growth. You might want to look at my original entry on Dividend Growth Stocks. I have also written about why I like Dividend Growth companies.

On my other blog I wrote today about Metro Inc. (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF)... learn more. Next, I will write about Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO)... learn more on Wednesday, January 03, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram with #walktoronto.