Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Banks and Ratios

The reason to look at company ratios is that the stock price for a company tells you very little. The price of a stock certainly does not tell you if the stock is cheap or expensive. For example a stock price of $10 on one stock could be an expensive price, but a stock price of $20 on another stock could be a cheap price. It is like all stocks have their own currency and you will need a common frame of reference in order to tell how cheap or expensive a stock is. My Spreadsheet is here.

In this entry I am only talking about the big 6 Canadian Banks of Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, CIBC, Royal Bank, National Bank, and TD Bank. I try to get the right information, but I cannot guarantee anything. In most of the test the CIBC bank is the one that is relatively cheaper.

The method I like best to check for a good stock price is dividend yield and this against the historical median dividend yield. What you are looking for is a current dividend yield higher than the historical dividend yield. Of the big banks that I follow, the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce comes off relatively better in this test. It is the closes to the historical median but currently all are higher.

For CIBC the current dividend yield is 4.24% and this historical one is 4.29% a value 1.08% high. For dividend yields, the higher the dividend yields the better the relative price of a stock is. Here is the 5 year median and historical average and historical median dividend yields based on my spreadsheets for our banks. All this data is going back to 1988.

Bank Symbol 5 Year Hist. Ave Hist. Med
Bank of Montreal BMO 4.29% 5.29% 4.29%
Bank of Nova Scotia BNS 4.12% 5.08% 4.01%
CIBC CM 4.67% 4.61% 4.29%
Royal Bank RY 3.92% 4.35% 3.80%
National Bank NA 4.17% 6.61% 3.98%
TD Bank TD 3.71% 3.27% 3.40%

Bank Symbol Price Dividend Yield M/C
Bank of Montreal BMO $104.44 $3.72 3.56% -16.97%
Bank of Nova Scotia BNS $81.99 $3.16 3.85% -3.89%
CIBC CM $122.53 $5.20 4.24% -1.08%
Royal Bank RY $107.72 $3.64 3.38% -11.08%
National Bank NA $65.08 $2.40 3.69% -7.34%
TD Bank TD $74.08 $2.40 3.24% -4.71%

My next favourite test is using the Graham Price. Of the big banks I follow, the CIBC is relatively lower with the current Price/Graham Price Ratio some 1.6% below its historical median P/GP Ratio. None of the other banks have a lower P/GP Ratios that the 10 year median.

For the 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios, the lower the ratio the lower the relative price of the underlying shares. This chart shows that investors are willing to pay a relatively higher price for Royal Bank stock than for other bank stocks. It also shows that generally the BMO has a relatively lower stock price.

Bank Symbol Low Median High
Bank of Montreal BMO 0.73 0.86 0.97
Bank of Nova Scotia BNS 0.85 0.93 1.05
CIBC CM 0.86 0.97 1.08
Royal Bank RY 0.92 1.08 1.19
National Bank NA 0.76 0.86 1.02
TD Bank TD 0.86 0.97 1.07

Bank Symbol Price Graham Price P/GP Ratio M/C
Bank of Montreal BMO $104.44 $108.87 0.96 11.55%
Bank of Nova Scotia BNS $81.99 $81.51 1.01 8.16%
CIBC CM $122.53 $128.34 0.95 -1.57%
Royal Bank RY $107.72 $91.12 1.18 9.46%
National Bank NA $65.08 $63.90 1.02 18.43%
TD Bank TD $74.08 $68.66 1.08 11.23%

One of the most common ratios to look at is the P/E Ratio. When dealing with P/E Ratios, the lower the P/E ratio the better the relatively price is. Below is the 5 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios for each bank I follow. What this chart also tells you is that investors are willing to pay relatively more money for TD Bank shares per dollar of earnings than for other banks.

Bank Symbol Low P/E Median P/E High P/E
Bank of Montreal BMO 10.07 11.42 12.77
Bank of Nova Scotia BNS 10.29 11.32 12.52
CIBC CM 9.00 9.89 10.78
Royal Bank RY 10.51 11.44 12.68
National Bank NA 9.04 10.62 12.21
TD Bank TD 11.40 12.63 13.69

So what is the relatively cheapest bank today? Currently CIBC has the lower P/E. In the last column I am comparing the Historical Median P/E with the Current P/E. This measure shows that all the banks are above the median as far as P/E geos. TD Bank has dropped the least from its median. It is off the median by less than 6.1%

Bank Symbol Price 2018 EPS Est. Curr P/E M/C
Bank of Montreal BMO $104.44 $8.30 12.58 10.19%
Bank of Nova Scotia BNS $81.99 $6.39 12.84 13.44%
CIBC CM $122.53 $11.00 11.14 12.63%
Royal Bank RY $107.72 $7.95 13.55 18.44%
National Bank NA $65.08 $5.76 11.30 6.39%
TD Bank TD $74.08 $5.53 13.40 6.07%

The next most common ratio is the Price/Book Value per Share Ratio. For Price/Book Value per Share Ratio, the lower the P/B Ratio is, the more book value you get for your money. Theoretically, the book value is the difference between assets and liabilities and therefore is the potential value a company is worth or the breakup value of the stock for the shareholders.

When valuing a stock, the lower the P/B Ratio is, the better the stock price is on a relative basis. The 10 year median P/B Ratios for our banks are below. From this it is obvious that historically, investors were willing to pay a relatively higher price for Royal Bank shares than other shares. It could also say that the Bank of Montreal offers the best deal when it comes to Book Value per Share.

Of the banks I follow, BMO has the lowest P/B Ratio and the CIBC is the lowest relative to its 10 year P/B Ratio as its current P/B Ratio is some 6% lower than the 10 year P/B Ratio.

Bank Symbol P/B
Bank of Montreal BMO 1.47
Bank of Nova Scotia BNS 1.88
CIBC CM 1.96
Royal Bank RY 2.02
National Bank NA 1.66
TD Bank TD 1.61

Bank Symbol Price BVPS Current P/B M/C
Bank of Montreal BMO $104.44 $63.47 1.65 11.95%
Bank of Nova Scotia BNS $81.99 $46.24 1.77 -5.69%
CIBC CM $122.53 $66.55 1.84 -6.06%
Royal Bank RY $107.72 $46.41 2.32 14.90%
National Bank NA $65.08 $31.51 2.07 24.43%
TD Bank TD $74.08 $37.89 1.96 21.45%

On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Transcontinental Inc. (TSX-TCL, OTC-TCLAF)... learn more. Next, I will write about Sylogist Ltd (TSX-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF)... learn more on Wednesday, January 24, 2018 around 5 pm

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

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