Friday, November 22, 2013

Secular Bear

I do agree with Danielle Park from the Toronto Money Show 2013 that we are still in a secular bear market. However, I have never gone liquid at any time. When recessions hit, I collect my dividends and wait for my portfolio to recover. Dividend increases can dramatically decline. However, the decline does not happen immediately.

For example, my dividend increase for 2009 was 14.9% and the one for 2010 was just 5.3%. My dividend increases have been climbing, but not very quickly with 2011 and 2012 at 9.23% and 9.63%, respectively. For 2013 my dividend increase is at 9.84% to date.

I expect that we will have at least one more stock crash (or maybe 2) before we get out of this Secular Market. These markets last for a long time and we probably, at least, have another 5 to 10 years to go in this one.

If you want to read further on this subject, see an article in Forbes entitled "Why It's Still Only a Cyclical Bull Market within the Long-Term Secular Bear". There is a similar article in at the Street Smart Report site. And for a really depressing recap of what is happening on this secular bear and how long it might last, see The Big Picture blog and an entry in it by Ed Easterling in 2012.

The Advisor Perspective site with the article by Doug Short in November 2013 comes at this subject from a slightly different angle, but no less depressing than the one that Ed Easterling wrote in 2012. It is only fair to include an article that says we are out of the current secular bear and into another secular bull. This is also on the Advisor Perspective site but by Chris Puplava. However, I do not believe this.

On my other blog I am today writing about Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE) continue...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.

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